Stat Factors: Week 4
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you five key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.
Week 4
Note: “The Factor” is a player of prime interest for the slate, while the “X-Factor” is typically a less likely but equally interesting alternative.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions Skewed Matchups
Top 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 RB Target % Matchup
Top 10 3WR + % Matchup
Bottom 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
This is going to be a slow-paced game in which the situation-neutral pace of both the Lions and the Cowboys is bottom 10 in the league. The Lions face a defense that has done well pressuring their opponents with a best in the NFL pressure rate and third-best sack rate. However, strength of opponent does matter. The Cowboys have faced the Panthers (25th graded) Seahawks (18th graded) and Giants (24th graded) pass blocking units. The Lions rank as the fourth-best team preventing pressure on the QB, and should be able to get off passes without hindrance.
Noting the potential slow pace of this game, I don’t think I am interested in taking shares of Matthews Stafford in this specific matchup. Four or five TDs seems like an extreme long shot if the play volume is not there. I’d only focus on a few sporadic shares of Kerryon Johnson, who is inexpensive and priced appropriately for his 48% of carries thus far. If that share suddenly increases in the game, there may be a very strange event occurring for the Lions that they don’t often see. That event? The rushing TD. They finally got over the hump of the 100-yard rushing drought last week, and perhaps now they can move on to correct their ridiculous TD ratio
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