Primetime Parlay: Steelers vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Sunday Night Football same game parlay for the Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Las Vegas Raiders.
Sunday Night Football presents a matchup between two 1-1 teams in the Steelers versus the Raiders. Las Vegas and Pittsburgh both traveled across the country after their Week 2 matchups to decide who would open the season with a winning record. Las Vegas will be at home, however, with a little extra time to rest and prepare. Will Jimmy G and company take care of the Steelers? Let’s start with all of our sports betting information before building a same game parlay ticket to sweat on Sunday night.
Steelers vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay
The Raiders are 1-1 after a rough loss to the Bills in Buffalo last weekend. The Steelers are also 1-1 after a nice bounceback win in an AFC North divisional matchup with the Browns in Week 2. FanDuel Sportsbook inserts the Raiders as three-point home favorites on Sunday night. The implied game total sits at 43 points.
The line moved drastically throughout the week. Initially, the Steelers were favored by a point and a half. Ahead of tonight’s matchup, the line moved a total of 3.5 points as 61% of dollars bet on the spread landed on the Vegas side. Further, per SAO, 89% of betting tickets and 95% of money were on the under. The total moved up to 44.5 points before steadily declining to the 43 reported at the time of this writing.
The Steelers have struggled mightily against opposing rushing attacks thus far in 2023. Their opponents excel at running the football (SF & CLE), but the league-worst 5.6 yards per rush attempt will surely bait the Las Vegas coaching staff into placing greater emphasis on Josh Jacobs in their offensive game plan. Las Vegas is not far behind the Steelers with respect to defending the rush. With that said, Najee Harris has struggled to get going early in the season. Perhaps a softer matchup will kick start the running back’s season.
Pittsburgh is getting to the quarterback often at the onset of the season — sacking the quarterback at an 11.54% rate. Las Vegas is not putting much pressure on quarterbacks and will need to get to Kenny Pickett to take pressure off the secondary.
Davante Adams left the game against Buffalo early after a rough hit but never entered the concussion protocol. Down by so much to the Bills, the exit was likely precautionary. Adams boasts 150 yards and a touchdown thus far in 2023 and will be rejoined by Jakobi Meyers, as the first-year Raider returns from the concussion protocol for the prime time matchup. Chandler Jones was placed on the non-football illness list for personal reasons.
For the Steelers, Minkah Fitzpatrick will play after a chest injury on a touchdown-saving tackle of Jerome Ford on Monday night. Darnell Washington, the rookie tight end, was also removed form the injury report. He has received 43% of offensive snaps thus far in his rookie campaign. Reports are that Jaylen Warren will see an increased role, as he has been very explosive relative to Najee Harris early in the season.
On a short week and having to travel across the country, many signs point towards a Las Vegas victory. What does ParlayIQ think?
Same Game Parlay Picks for SNF
Las Vegas Moneyline (-158)
Both teams travel across the country for tonight’s matchup, but one team is at home and had some extra time to get prepared. The Raiders will likely look to get Josh Jacobs involved early and often against a Pittsburgh defense that has struggled to stop opposing rushers. When you consider that Pittsburgh continues to get to quarterbacks, all systems should go for Josh Jacobs.
ParlayIQ matches this ML bet in 58% of the nearly 5,000 simulations of this game. With a suggested price of -139 by ParlayIQ, we are already ahead of the game with respect to expected value.
Josh Jacobs Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
In simulations where the Vegas ML hits, Josh Jacobs is expected to go over his rushing prop 50% of the time. Often, we are looking for a higher percentage, but this feels more like a gut play.
With the Steelers so dynamic up front at getting after the quarterback, nothing will slow them down more than Josh Jacobs churning yards. Jacobs saw 19 attempts in the first-week victory but only nine in a blowout loss last week. If the Raiders are in a positive script, we should expect plenty of rushing attempts from the Vegas side.
Instead of taking the higher percentage over on Davante Adams, I am going to stick to my guns. The Raiders will run the ball to victory tonight.
Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
We are a bit behind schedule with regard to pricing after including the Jacobs’ over. What else is new? A running back receiving over.
I am starting to think that ParlayIQ and our simulations perpetually love to attack the receiving overs of running backs. Josh Jacobs also found his receiving total in a very high percentage of the simulations that include our first two legs. With that said, with our first two legs, Jaylen Warren going over his receiving prop is found in 73% of those outcomes.
This makes sense. If the Raiders are scripted to win and Jacobs is running wild, the Steelers will be in catch-up mode. No Steelers have looked as dynamic as George Pickens and Jaylen Warren. Warren has looked the part far more than Najee Harris in two games and is reported to see more work. If that starts tonight, Warren will be targeted out of the backfield and has the upside to have a big receiving day. We will include and likely begin closing in on a lot of expected profit with this leg.
Najee Harris Under 44.5 Rushing Yards
After those three legs, our parlay’s price on FanDuel is just below what ParlayIQ and the simulations spit out. I am looking for a high-percentage leg to include as my fourth to ensure ParlayIQ favors our selections.
Well, perfect. We love Jaylen Warren tonight in a matchup where we expect the Raiders to be victorious. We also do not love Najee Harris after reports of the Steelers taking note of his inefficacy. So what makes sense? The Najee Harris rushing under seems to fit.
ParlayIQ agrees, with this leg found in over 60% of the simulations with our first few legs. The price of this under does not match, and we should see just enough to see a match for our price at least. If the Raiders pull ahead, I don’t think the Steelers will waste time with Najee Harris if Warren is more explosive.
Steelers vs. Raiders Parlay Odds
- Las Vegas Moneyline
- Josh Jacobs Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
- Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
- Najee Harris Under 44.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay computes the following price for our parlay:
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Parlay Odds: +607
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 3.03 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.