Steelers vs. Browns Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Steelers vs. Browns Odds
| Steelers Odds | -3.5 |
| Browns Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 36.5 |
| Date | Thursday, November 21 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
This evening, the 1st place Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to the shores of Lake Erie to play the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Steelers as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread. The total is set at 36.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to RotoGrinders Meteorologist Kevin Roth, the NFL weather forecast is “a mess” tonight in Cleveland. Roth is expecting a steady mix of rain and snow that lasts for the majority of the game. Wind could also play a role in tonight’s game, with sustained 10-15 mph wind and gusts up to 20 mph.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Expect Pittsburgh to pound the rock?
Following a Week 18 matchup against the Ravens in 2023, head coach Mike Tomlin emphasized in his post-game press conference that the team’s game plan had an extra focus on the ground game, given the poor weather conditions. In that contest, Najee Harris ran the ball 26 times for 112 rushing yards. Jaylen Warren added another 9 rush attempts for 33 yards on the ground in that contest.
The Browns lost their leading tackler, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in late October to injured reserve. In 2 games since his injury, their defense has allowed 85 rushing yards on 14 attempts to JK Dobbins and 205 rushing yards to Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara.
Highsmith ruled OUT
EDGE Alex Highsmith has been ruled out for the 2nd consecutive week, leaving Pittsburgh’s pass rush thin on high-quality talent. The Steelers defense has generated a 40%+ pressure rate in 4 of the 6 games that Highsmith has been active this season but hasn’t surpassed 36.4% in any of the games that he has missed.
The good news for Pittsburgh is that they get a favorable matchup against an anemic Cleveland offense. Entering play, the Browns offense ranks 23rd in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate since Jameis Winston took over as the team’s starting quarterback in Week 8.
Cleveland Browns Preview
What to expect from Winston, Browns offense
The Jameis Winston era of Cleveland football started with a bang in Week 8, upsetting Baltimore as 8.5-point underdogs in Week 8. However, since that point, the Browns have scored 10 points against the Chargers and 14 points against the Saints in back-to-back losses. Since Week 9, only 4 teams in the entire NFL have a worse offensive EPA/play than the Browns, and only 5 teams have a worse offensive success rate – meaning that his unit is neither generating many explosive plays nor has it been particularly successful on a down-to-down basis.
In 3 games since taking over as the team’s starting quarterback, Winston ranks 30th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play percentage, according to PFF. He’s also taken the 5th-most sacks of any quarterback in that stretch, despite the Browns playing 1 fewer game than many teams due to the bye. There simply isn’t much going right for Cleveland’s offense right now.
Can Cleveland’s defense keep this game competitive?
Though Pittsburgh is an unblemished 4-0 since Russell Wilson took over as the team’s starting quarterback in Week 7, it hasn’t all been pretty. During that time period, Pittsburgh’s offense has the 5th-worst red-zone touchdown percentage in the entire NFL, making this a potentially palatable matchup for Cleveland’s struggling defense.
Another thing that could benefit the Browns is that Pittsburgh has been one of the league’s least aggressive teams on 4th down this fall, with the 4th-lowest rate of “going for it” in situations where expected win probability suggests that is the correct thing to do.
The Steelers’ recent red-zone struggles, coupled with their relative lack of aggressiveness in short-yardage situations, could help the Browns defense keep this game somewhat close.
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction
There is little doubt that Pittsburgh is the better team in this AFC North divisional showdown, but the Steelers are not a team that wins many games by double-digits. This season, 6 of Pittsburgh’s 8 wins have come by 10 points or fewer, with the two exceptions being games in which the Steelers trailed at the half but benefited from unusually good turnover luck late in the contest.
Given the sustained wins, plus the cold temperatures and possibly rain/snow, it seems unlikely that we see this game turn into a shootout in either direction. If Cleveland’s offense can do a reasonably good job taking care of the football this evening, teasing the side and the total in this spot could prove to be worthwhile.
PICK: Browns +10, Under 41 (-120, DraftKings)
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