Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Green Bay at Kansas City
NFL Week 8 nears a close with a Sunday night matchup between the Packers and the Chiefs. Online sports betting sites opened without a line due to the Patrick Mahomes injury but now feature a 4.5 or 4-point spread depending on the site with a 47.5 implied total.
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Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
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Spread: Green Bay Packers -4
62% of bets backing Green Bay, per VegasInsider.com.
Over/Under: 47.5
69% of bets on the over.
NBC likely fought long and hard to feature a game between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes on their 2019 schedule. Unfortunately, after a dislocated knee, the Chiefs will welcome the Packers without their star quarterback. Replacing a quarterback of Mahomes’ ability is impossible, so Andy Reid will need to dig deep into his bag of tricks to pull off a home upset against the 6-1 Packers.
Despite losing Mahomes, the Chiefs made light work of the Denver Broncos. With the help of a defensive score and a long touchdown to Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs were able to topple the Broncos 30-6 for the cover and a move to 5-2 on the season. With Mahomes out for at least a few weeks, the Chiefs will turn to Matt Moore. Moore went 10 for 19 in relief for 117 passing yards and a touchdown. The Packers rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and 26th against the wide receiver position. Needless to say, the journeyman Moore will be tested immediately by the visiting Packer defense.
Where the Packers can be beaten is on the ground. Green Bay has allowed 799 yards on the ground to the running back position in seven games. Coupled with seven touchdowns, the high volume of rushing production is the Achilles’ Heel of an otherwise stout group. In their Week 7 victory versus the Raiders, the Packers’ defense allowed 124 rushing yards to rookie Josh Jacobs despite Jacobs missing a portion of the game due to an injury scare. The Chiefs will be between a rock and a hard place, then… they certainly would love to rush the ball but have only accumulated a 23rd-ranked 576 yards in 2019. So, the path to success against the Packers’ defense is on the ground. Are the Chiefs equipped to take advantage?
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company are fresh off an offensive masterpiece against the Oakland Raiders in Week 7. Rodgers was 25 for 31 with 429 yards and five passing touchdowns. As if the perfect passing day was not enough, Rodgers added an exclamation point with a rushing touchdown for six on the day. The Chiefs ranked 21st in the league in fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position. Aaron Rodgers and his weapons could have a field day against this defense.
The Sunday Night Football Pick
Even with home-field advantage, a Chiefs’ victory would need to be considered an upset considering the recent form of the Packers. Green Bay has certainly had a few balls bounce in their direction — a Monday night game against Detroit comes to mind — but the team is playing extremely well on both sides of the ball. Davante Adams is doubtful for this contest but the Pack showed last week that the offense could play at a high level with the remaining receiving options. Matt Moore will struggle to move down the field against this passing defense while his Hall of Fame-bound counterpart should be able to march up and down. This one feels too easy.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers -4
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — First Touchdown
DraftKings Sportsbook normally offers a promotion for each primetime football game on first touchdown bets. If the player you bet on doesn’t score the first touchdown but scores a touchdown at any time, you will receive your bet back as a free bet. Just be sure to opt into the promo before placing your bet. Here are a few options.
Aaron Jones +600
Jimmy Graham +1300
Tyreek Hill +1200
Monkey Knife Figh Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight picks for Sunday Night Football:
Aaron Rodgers Under 285.5 Passing Yards
Matt Moore Under 240.5 Passing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images