Sunday Night Football Picks: Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds & Predictions
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
| Broncos Odds | -8.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | +8.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Dec 5. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
This evening the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs will battle at Arrowhead Stadium. Entering play, the Broncos have won three of their last four contests, having beaten the Washington Football Team, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Chargers in that span . Kansas City has not lost since before Halloween—winning four consecutive games against the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Dallas Cowboys. On Sunday Night Football, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy victory for Kansas City, pricing the Chiefs as 8.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Broncos +8.5
The Broncos won their first three games of the season against inferior opponents, but promptly followed up their strong start to the campaign with four straight losses. After trading Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams, it appeared as though this group had their eyes set on 2022 and beyond. In a surprising turn of events, Denver can move into a first place tie in the AFC West with a victory tonight.
Teddy Bridgewater has been exactly what the Broncos hoped he would be this season—a competent game manager, who is capable of making an occasional big throw. Bridgewater is unlikely to win many games by himself, ranking 18th in passing yards, 16th in passing touchdowns, and only 19th in QBR. Yet, his ability to limit turnovers and to complete passes at a high percentage has kept Denver competitive each week this fall. It certainly helps that Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick have been three of the most consistent pass catchers in the NFL this fall. Denver’s passing game should once again find success in Week 13.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos strength has been against the pass—holding opposing quarterbacks to an 82.7 passer rating this fall. Opposing signal callers have only 15 touchdowns against 10 interceptions through 11 games. Playing Patrick Mahomes carries a certain fearful connotation, but this secondary unit is more than capable of devising creative ways to limit the Kansas City passing game. The Chiefs could find some success on the ground against a Denver defense allowing 4.4 yards-per-carry, but Kansas City strongly prefers to throw the football. The Broncos defense could have a strong night in this matchup.
Chiefs -8.5
The Chiefs opened as 9.5 point favorites on the market for this affair, but have been wagered down to only an 8-point favorite at some sportsbooks as we approach kickoff. Bettors are stubbornly refusing to pay what has become known as the “Mahomes Tax” on their Sunday Night Football bets. It is hard to blame the market, considering that Mahomes has thrown for more than 278 yards in a game only twice since Week 2. Mahomes ranks 28th amongst qualified quarterbacks with 11 interceptions in 2021. Other than a five touchdown performance against Las Vegas in Week 10, Mahomes has been average or worse in each of his team’s games over the last two months of action.
Defensively, the Chiefs have played much better since the beginning of November. In their last four games, Kansas City has not allowed more than 17 points in a game. This stretch has included holding strong offenses such as the Packers, Raiders, and Cowboys. Still, this is a unit that has permitted 4.6 yards-per-carry on the ground this year, and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.9 percent of their pass attempts. Despite the recent success of the Kansas City defense, Bridgewater and company still have an opportunity to play well tonight.
Sunday Night Football & Prediction
Denver has an opportunity to move into a first place tie in their division this evening with a victory. Simply put, there is little evidence from a data perspective to suggest that the Chiefs deserve to be greater than a touchdown favorite in this one. It can be difficult for bettors to convince themselves to bet against the reputation of Patrick Mahomes, but it could be a winning strategy here.
PICKS: Broncos +8.5 (-110)
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