Sunday Night Football Picks: Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds & Predictions

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-09-19 18:23:39

Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds

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The Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens will battle on Sunday Night Football in Week 2 at M&T Bank Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing Kansas City as a one-score favorite on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

Great teams win games even when they do not play their best football. In Week 1, the Chiefs were throttled by a laser-focused Cleveland Browns team on both sides of the football in the first half. Yet, Patrick Mahomes and company overcame a 12-point halftime deficit to start their fall with a victory. Mahomes looked as good as ever, totaling an efficient 337 passing yards and three touchdowns. Tyreek Hill was electrifying with 11 catches for 197 yards. If there is one concern for Kansas City on the offensive side of the ball, it continues to be the offensive line. Despite making the offensive line an area of focus in the offseason, they allowed three sacks, three quarterback hits, and nine pressures in Week 1.

While Kansas City once again looks like one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the NFL, their defensive effort against the Browns was more than a little bit concerning. The defensive line was routinely overmatched at the line of scrimmage. Baker Mayfield was rarely under duress, and Nick Chubb was often two or three yards past the line of scrimmage before facing resistance. The secondary could benefit from the return of Tyrann Mathieu in Week 2, who is expected to make his season debut. However, Mathieu has not been elite at his position since 2015. Do not expect Mathieu to be an elixir for a very beatable secondary unit. If there is any hope for this defense against Baltimore, it is that Lamar Jackson struggles to throw the ball. If this defense can contain Jackson’s legs, they should be able to limit the damage done by the Ravens offense.

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (-110)

Despite facing one of the worst defenses in football in their season opener, the Ravens offense looked very mediocre last Monday. Jackson used his legs to create offensive opportunities, compiling 86 yards on the ground. However, he had multiple throws that could have easily resulted in interceptions against a better defense. Predictably, he struggled to throw the ball down-the-field, and it ultimately resulted in a loss. Running back Ty’Son Williams performed admirably in his first career NFL game with 94 yards on 12 touches, and has an opportunity for another strong performance against a mediocre Kansas City rush defense in Week 2. Still, this offense is going to struggle to score points on a consistent basis if they do not get better performances from Alejandro Villaneuva and Ronnie Staley on the offensive line.

Winning the line of scrimmage is almost always the best predictor of success in the NFL. Baltimore won very few snaps on either side of the ball on Monday night. The defensive line rarely made Derek Carr uncomfortable in the pocket, allowing him to throw for 435 yards and two touchdowns. Allowing tight end Darren Waller to accumulate 105 yards receiving does not bode well for their chances to slow down arguably the best tight end in the game, Travis Kelce, this weekend. The Ravens have a reputation for having one of the strongest locker room cultures in the league, which undoubtedly enables them to perform better than the sum of their parts each year. Yet, it still helps to have talent to support good team chemistry. This is likely the Ravens’ worst defense in quite a few years, and it could be exposed badly on prime time television against the Chiefs.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Picks

On Monday, we locked in our best bet of the week on Kansas City at (-3), catching the line before it moved to its current price of (-3.5). If feeling uncomfortable betting on the wrong side of a field goal difference, bettors can buy the Chiefs down to (-2.5) at -160. It could be a wise decision, considering that Kansas City had five wins by three points or less in 2020.

Still, the best value for your wager is going to be on the current consensus market price. Considering that Baltimore allowed Carr to throw for 435 yards in Week 1 with over a week to prepare, it is scary to think what Mahomes and company will be able to do against a Ravens team playing on a short week. The Chiefs should roll in this one. A similar final score to last September’s 34-20 Kansas City win at M&T Bank Stadium seems like a realistic outcome yet again.

PICK: Chiefs -3.5

Prop Bet

In Week 1, Patrick Mahomes threw for 337 yards against a much-improved Cleveland Browns secondary. In 2020, Mahomes went over 315.5 yards in eight of the 15 regular season games he played, including a 385 yard performance against the Baltimore Ravens last September. In the off-season, Baltimore lost star pass-rusher Matthew Judon to the New England Patriots. Against the Las Vegas Raiders in their season opener, Baltimore struggled mightily to put pressure on Derek Carr in the pocket. However, the Ravens were relatively strong against the run. The game plan for Kansas City is simple for Sunday night—use the best quarterback in the NFL to attack a mediocre Baltimore secondary that allowed 405 yards passing in Week 1. Mahomes should give us a chance to get to 4-1 on our best bet record to start the year.

PICK: Patrick Mahomes o315.5 passing yards (-115)

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