Sunday Night Football Picks: Packers vs. 49ers Odds & Predictions
Packers vs. 49ers Odds
| Packers Odds | +3 |
| 49ers Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 26* |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers will duel in Week 3 on Sunday Night Football at Levi’s Stadium. Considering that this is a rematch of the 2020 NFC Championship Game, it is no surprise to see oddsmakers expecting a closely-contested affair, pricing San Francisco as only a field goal favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Green Bay Packers +3 (-110)
In Week 1, Green Bay was embarrassed 38-3 by the New Orleans Saints. Rodgers was abysmal, throwing for only 133 yards and two interceptions. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdowns. The Packers started slow again in Week 2 on Monday Night Football, trailing 17-14 at the half against the hapless Detroit Lions. The Packers ended up outsourcing the Lions 21-0 in the second half, but were actually outgained for the game 344 to 323 in terms of total yardage. There is a strong argument to be made that Green Bay actually did not play that well, outside of exploiting the same vulnerability against the Detroit linebackers over and over again with Aaron Jones accounting for a rare three touchdowns through the air. This offense could find life even more difficult in Week 3 without arguably their best offensive lineman so far this year, Elgton Jenkins.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Packers had four different players record multiple pressures against the Lions. Still, they allowed 38 points to the Saints, then followed that up by allowing 344 yards in Week 2. This unit is far more talented than they have shown so far this fall. On the defensive line, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark are capable of elite production in any given week, but struggle with consistency. Jaire Alexander is a lockdown cornerback, capable of neutralizing the opponent’s best wide receiver. If the Packers can get more reliable production out of some of their other starters, this could be an above average unit on the defensive side of the ball.
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)
San Francisco enters play in Week 3 undefeated, but they have not exactly looked impressive. The 49ers blitzed the Lions 31-10 in the first half in Week 1, but only barely held on for a 41-33 victory. In Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles gave them all they could handle in a tightly-contested affair that went down to the wire.
Jimmy Garoppolo has done nothing to erase concerns about his play under center. Through two games, he has been an adequate game manager, but little more. The 49ers continue to emphasize the run more than almost any team in the league, ranking third in rushing attempts through two weeks. Rather than relying on an elite playmaker out of the backfield, San Francisco has assembled one of the best offensive lines in football, featuring standouts such as Trent Williams, Laken Tomlinson, Alex Mack, and Daniel Brunskill. Expect another ground and pound game plan for the 49ers in this game, similar to when they ran the ball 42 times in the 2020 NFC Championship Game.
Green Bay is down to their third option at left tackle on Sunday Night Football after it was announced that Jenkins will not play. Nick Bosa could be in for a huge performance in this one as the main beneficiary of the Packers’ injury woes. Bosa is joined on the defensive line by elite talent in Arik Armstead, and emerging star D.J. Jones. If there is one area of vulnerability for this group, it is in the secondary. Deommodore Lenoir will likely be given primary responsibility on Davante Adams tonight, but it would not be surprising to see some creative coverage schemes to reduce the risk of getting burned deep. Of course, if the 49ers defensive line dominates Green Bay’s beat up offensive line, Rodgers might not even have enough time to explore deep routes this evening.
Packers vs. 49ers Picks
Considering that the high-powered offenses of the Buccaneers and the Rams have their total priced at over/under 55.5 this week, it seems incredibly irresponsible for this game between the Packers and the 49ers to be priced over 50. To be fair, the 49ers season opener totaled 74 points, and the Packers totaled 52 points last week. However, the commonality in both of those games was playing the Lions. Against New Orleans, Green Bay’s season opener totaled only 41 points. Last week, San Francisco’s battle against the Eagles resulted in only 28 total points.
The loss of Jenkins on the Packers’ offensive line is going to create offensive problems for Green Bay throughout this game. Expect San Francisco to emphasize ball-control and the rushing game once again. Unless there are unpredictable scores, such as pick-sixes or special teams touchdowns, there does not seem to be a realistic path to 51 points in this one. Take the under with confidence.
PICK: Under 50.5 (-110)
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