Suns vs. Bucks Odds, Game 6 Preview, Picks, & Prediction
Suns vs. Bucks Odds
| Suns Odds | +5 |
| Bucks Odds | -5 |
| Moneyline | +170/-200 |
| Over/Under | 222.5 |
| Time | 9:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
| Odds accurate as of Tuesday at BetMGM | |
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After losing the first two games of the Finals, Milwaukee has won three straight games to take a 3-2 series lead. Can Milwaukee make #BucksInSix a reality on Tuesday night or does Phoenix have what it takes to extend the series to a Game 7? The Suns will have to beat the odds to do so. They travel to Milwaukee as 5-point underdogs, while the Bucks are -200 on the moneyline. After their recent high-scoring affair where the teams combined for 242 points, sportsbooks have raised the Over/Under to 222.5
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Holiday, Bucks Celebrate
The big story in Game 5 was Jrue Holiday’s offensive explosion as he racked up 27 points and dished out 13 assists, including a game sealing alley-oop with 13 seconds left. While this was by far Holiday’s best offensive game of the series, I wouldn’t be overly shocked to see him drop another double-double in Game 6. Holiday continues to be aggressive with the ball in his hands, averaging 17.8 field goal attempts per game and only ranks behind Chris Paul with 14.4 potential assists per game this series.
Giannis has slowed down a bit after monstrous back-to-back 40+ point performances in Game’s 2 and 3. Antetokounmpo failed to record a double-double for the first time this series with a 32/9/6 line in Game 5. While Phoenix’s commitment to double-teaming Giannis has paid off in limiting his production in the half-court, he remains a threat in transition as he showed by throwing down Holiday’s oop with 13 seconds left. As slowing down Giannis hasn’t resulted in wins for the Suns, it will be interesting to see if they make any defensive adjustments in Game 6 resulting in less doubling.
Khris Middleton finished Game 5 with 29 points making that three Bucks players with 27+ points in the game. Milwaukee’s ability to spread out their offensive production is partially what makes me think they will walk away as NBA Champions on Tuesday night. While the Bucks have three legitimate threats on offense, the Suns have been over reliant on Devin Booker and haven’t been able to get enough out of Chris Paul.
Suns & Paul Need The Secret Stuff
After an underwhelming Game 3 and an absolutely brutal Game 4 performance, Chris Paul looked a little better in Game 5, scoring 21 points and dishing out 11 assists. Paul is the Suns’ X-factor and they’ll need a huge game out of him to win on Tuesday night. Even when he’s played poorly, Paul has generated a ton of opportunities for his teammates. CP3 is averaging 17 potential assists this series and will need to be an efficient contributor for the Suns to pull out a victory.
Devin Booker has to be frustrated. No matter how well he plays, Phoenix seems to lose. The Suns have lost three straight games, despite back-to-back 40+ point performances out of Booker. Perhaps that shows the importance of Paul needing to step up in a big way if Phoenix is going to compete in Game 6 – Booker can’t carry this offense by himself and one could make the argument that an offense reliant on contested mid-range jumpers is bound for failure at some point.
Deandre Ayton had one of his better offensive performances in Game 5 scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 boards. Ayton has been an uber important piece to the Suns playoff success and will need him to play all the minutes he can handle again in Game 6 – he sat for just three minutes in Saturday’s loss. Phoenix has almost zero depth behind Ayton and any sort of limited production out of him would be an absolute disaster.
Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 Picks
If it seems like things are bleak for the Suns that’s because they are. It is certainly possible they are able to pull out a Game 6 win but they are going to need a lot of things to break their way, including a game out of Chris Paul similar to his Game 4 performance (41/4/8) when he sent the Clippers home in the Western Conference Finals. No matter the angle I look at, I see more paths to a Milwaukee victory in this spot and would not be surprised if they jump out with an early lead and run away with the game. I’m on Milwaukee -5 here and am in favor of throwing a small bet on Alternate Point Spreads all the way up to -9.5.
ATS PICK: Bucks -5
Brook Lopez O/U 16.5 P+R+A – Lopez beat this number in the first two games of the series and then saw his production drop off during Milwaukee’s 3-game winning streak. Playing time will be Brook’s biggest hurdle when it comes to this prop as he averaged just 20 minutes in Game’s 3 & 4 and I expect his Game 6 minutes to be more in line with that number than the 29 minutes he played in Game 5.
Prop Pick: B. Lopez, Under 16.5 P+R+A
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