Super Bowl 59 Betting Preview & Prediction
Super Bowl 59 Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -1.5 |
| Eagles Odds | +1.5 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Sunday, February 9, 2025 |
| Time | 6:30 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
The stage is set for Super Bowl LIX, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles scheduled for kickoff at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 9th at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks. Also, be sure to check out Kalshi, where you can trade on the Super Bowl, politics, and pop culture. Kalshi promo code GRINDERS will get you a $10 bonus.
This will be a rematch of Super Bowl 57, which Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won 38-35, thanks, in part, to a controversial defensive holding call in the closing minutes. The Chiefs won Super Bowl 58 last year as well, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime, setting them up for a potentially historic 3rd consecutive title this weekend in the Bayou.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will be looking to avenge their loss from 2 seasons ago to bring Philadelphia their first Super Bowl victory since 2017. They enter the biggest game of the year on a high note, fresh off of setting a new NFL record for points in a Conference Championship Game, in a dominating 55-23 win over the Commanders.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
“Playoff Mahomes” on the verge of historic 3rd consecutive Super Bowl
Since taking over as the team’s starting quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 in the postseason, with 2 of those 3 losses coming at the hands of Tom Brady. In 18 playoff games against teams led by quarterbacks other than Brady, Mahomes is 17-1, with his lone defeat coming by 3 points in overtime against Joe Burrow and the Bengals – a game in which the Chiefs led 21-3 early in the 2nd quarter.
Across the last 7 seasons, 23 different quarterbacks have logged 100+ plays in the postseason. Mahomes leads those quarterbacks in EPA/play, success rate, and EPA + CPOE. Even more impressive, Mahomes’ 0.292 EPA/play and 54% success rate in the playoffs are better than his 0.255 EPA/play and 52.5% success rate in the regular season during that same time frame.
When the stakes are highest and when the competition is the toughest, Mahomes has been at his best. The Eagles’ defense presents a formidable challenge, but we have seen Mahomes take care of business in these situations time and time again.
Will Chiefs run defense be able to contain Barkley, Eagles ground attack?
Kansas City’s run defense finished the regular season ranked 9th in DVOA, but this group has grown increasingly more vulnerable throughout the second half of the season. From Week 1 to Week 10, the Chiefs’ run defense ranked 4th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate. From Week 11 to Week 17, they ranked 16th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate against opposing ground attacks.
The Chiefs’ regression is even more noteworthy when realizing that they faced only 2 teams during the regular season that managed to win a playoff game. Baltimore ran for 185 yards against Kansas City in Week 1 and Buffalo ran for 104 yards in Week 11.
During the postseason, Kansas City has allowed 149 rushing yards to Houston and 147 rushing yards to Buffalo. A matchup against the NFL’s leading rusher in the Super Bowl is far from ideal for this group.
At best, this is a mediocre run defense at this point in the year, but even that might be a stretch. It’s a very realistic possibility that this unit ends up being the reason that the Chiefs are unable to win their 3rd consecutive Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
What to expect from Barkley, Philadelphia offense
After becoming only the 9th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single regular season, Saquon Barkley enters play needing 169 rushing yards to set a new league record for most rushing yards in a single postseason. If he rushes for at least 58 yards, he will become only the 3rd player in the Super Bowl era with 500+ rushing yards in a single postseason.
The Eagles are likely to continue feeding Barkley early and often in this spot. Following the team’s Week 5 bye, Philadelphia led the NFL with a 61% rush rate. During that span, no other team in the league ran the ball on more than 52.6% of their plays. The team’s offense has been even more run-heavy when playing with a 2nd-half lead – running the ball on 72.6% of such plays after their bye.
Barkley, who had only 15 carries against Washington in the NFC Championship Game, will be plenty rested on Sunday, which should mean a heavy workload. The last time Barkley received 15 carries or fewer in a game was in Week 10 against Dallas. The following week, he was handed the ball 26 times on a short week against the Commanders. Expect this unit to do everything they can to get their ground game going in the biggest game of the season.
Fangio looking to snap 8-game losing streak against Mahomes, Reid
One of the more widely circulated statistics ahead of Super Bowl 59 is that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are 8-0 against Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. On the surface, that statistic gives the impression that Mahomes and company have dominated these head-to-head matchups, but there is more nuance to the story than that.
Kansas City’s offense scored 21 points and had only 267 yards of total offense against Miami last season. In 2021, Mahomes and company scored only 1 offensive touchdown and had only 267 yards of total offense against the Broncos. In 2020, Fangio held Mahomes and the Chiefs to only 286 yards of total offense in October, and then limited them to 1 offensive touchdown in December.
Perhaps even more noteworthy is that Fangio’s best defense (by DVOA) in that span ranked 13th. This season’s Philadelphia defense ended the regular season ranked 1st in DVOA and is, without question, the most talented unit he has coached during his NFL career.
This is to say, the Chiefs are 8-0 against Fangio-led defenses during the Mahomes era, but the team’s defense and special teams has done a lot of the heavy lifting in those recent head-to-head meetings, allowing an average of 11.9 points per game, per Jimmy Kempski. We have seen “Playoff Mahomes” do some special things in his first 7 seasons as a starter, but it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see him experience some relative struggles in this spot.
Super Bowl 59 Prediction
The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, we saw a combined 73 points scored. Though it’s tempting to expect similar results this time around, there are reasons to think this game could be relatively low-scoring, even after Philadelphia just hung 55 points by themselves on Washington in the NFC Championship Game.
Vic Fangio, the Eagles’ defensive coordinator, has been one of the few people in the NFL who has consistently made Patrick Mahomes look mortal. Now, he has more defensive talent than he’s possessed in any of their previous head-to-head meetings. Kansas City is going to have to work for everything they get on the offensive side of the ball.
Philadelphia is a run-first team, which often leads to slower scoring drives, and thus, fewer total possessions for both teams. If the Eagles are able to get out to an early lead, we could see them take things to an extreme, trying to keep Mahomes on the sidelines as much as possible.
The under is worthy of consideration in this matchup.
PICK: Under 48.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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