SuperContest Consensus: Bengals (+3) Most Popular Pick for Week 1
Of the record 3,123 entries in the 2018 Las Vegas SuperContest, 1,218 contestants picked the Cincinnati Bengals (+3) for Week 1. The Bengals were selected 166 times more than the second most popular pick of Week 1 and open up the season on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, who will be getting Andrew Luck back under center for the first time in quite awhile.
The Los Angeles Rams (-4), who are on the road against the Jon Gruden-led Oakland Raiders, were the second most popular SuperContest pick of Week 1. The Rams were select 1,052 times. The Bengals and Rams were the only two sides picked more than 1,000 times.
Top 5 Most Popular SuperContest Picks for Week 1
1. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) – 1,218
2. Los Angeles Rams (-4) – 1,052
3. Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) – 907
4. Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) – 854
5. Houston Texans (+6.5) – 848
Now if you’re in the SuperContest, then you shouldn’t be too thrilled if you have picks that also appear in the top five consensus picks. A general rule of thumb in sports betting is that you want to avoid the public — the squares, as they are commonly referred to — and be on the sharp side. Professional and winning bettors will often tell you to “fade the public” as a strong rule in sports betting, and having picks that are popular throughout the contest puts you in line with everyone else. Plus, when you’re betting in a similar fashion to the larger populations, you have less of an opportunity to separate yourself.
If sharp bettors are the winners and square bettors are the losers, then the top consensus picks should be on the losing end, right? Looking at the SuperContest going back to 2013, we have five years of data on hand and gather that, collectively, the weekly top five consensus picks are 200-214-11. That’s booking less than 50% winners in the SuperContest and not going to get you anywhere near the top of the SuperContest leaderboard.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Buffalo Bills, who are getting 7.5 points on the road against the Baltimore Ravens, were the least picked team of the week. The Bills were selected just 157 times.
Over in the high-stakes SuperContest Gold — the SuperContest’s sister contest with a $5,000 buy-in and winner-take-all format — the Bengals were also the top pick. Of the 128 SuperContest Gold entries, Cincinnati was picked 58 times.
Top 5 Most Popular SuperContest Gold Picks for Week 1
1. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) – 58
2. Houston Texans (+6.5) – 36
3. Chicago Bears (+7.5) – 33
4. Denver Broncos (3) — 31
5. Los Angeles Rams (4) — 31
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