Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Rays vs. Guardians Odds
| Rays Odds | +108 |
| Guardians Odds | -118 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 12:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Friday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians will begin the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason at Progressive Field. Tampa Bay is making their fourth consecutive trip to the playoffs, though each of the last three trips have ended short of a championship. Cleveland is making their fifth postseason appearance in the last seven years, but has not won a series since advancing to the World Series in 2016. In Game 1, the Rays are sending Shane McClanahan to the hill, who will be opposed by Shane Bieber. Oddsmakers have these two teams evenly priced, with the Guardians listed as slim -118 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Round.
Tampa Bay Rays
Before diving into the specifics of the Tampa Bay roster for this matchup, it is worth noting that this group has not played a home game since September 25th. After an off-day on Monday, September 26th, the Rays flew to Cleveland for three games, then immediately went to Houston for three games, before ending the year at Fenway Park. October 6th was an off-day, and now the Rays find themselves back in Cleveland again this weekend for their 10th, 11th (and possibly 12th) consecutive road games.
On the bump for the road warriors in Game 1 will be Shane McClanahan, who dazzled this year to the tune of a 2.54 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 3.00 FIP, and a 0.93 WHIP. In 2021, McClanahan struggled to a 3.51 FIP against right-handed batters, but a dramatic increase in usage of his changeup and in 2022 gave him three lethal weapons against righty-stacked lineups. On the season, right-handed batters had a .141 batting average against his changeup and a .165 batting average against his curveball – making them two of the best pitches in all of baseball. Nonetheless, it was not all perfect for the talented southpaw this summer. His velocity began to decline in late-July before he finally landed on the injured list at the end of August. Since his return, he has been limited across four starts, and has struggled to a 5.21 ERA, 5.85 FIP, 14.8 strikeout percentage, 9.9 percent walk rate, and a 1.42 WHIP. Consequently, expect McClanahan to be on a short leash in this one.
Offensively, the Rays are facing an uphill battle as well, having ranked 29th in OPS, 28th in ISO, and 21st in HardHit% against right-handed pitching across the final 30 days of the regular season. Since Wander Franco returned on September 9th, he has displayed adept contact skills, with a .322 batting average, but has lacked much power – posting only one home run and a .471 slugging percentage in 97 plate appearances. Facing one of the more talented pitchers in the league on Friday, this group is unlikely to have a fun day.
If Tampa Bay has any opportunity in this spot, it is in the late innings. Since the All-Star break Manager Kevin Cash’s arm barn ranks 9th in FIP, 5th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout percentage, and 1st in walk rate as a unit. Cash did an excellent job preserving his high leverage arms over the final week of the regular season, meaning that he will have everyone available and rested heading into the weekend.
Cleveland Guardians
Through his first 18 turns in the rotation this summer, Shane Bieber looked as though he had regressed sharply – delivering a 3.55 ERA, 3.06 FIP, and a 1.15 WHIP. However, any concerns about the former Cy Young award winner vanished by the end of September after he posted a 2.04 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and a 0.91 WHIP across his final 13 starts In that span, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11-of-13 outings. Expect him to be sharp and effective on Friday in a favorable matchup against a lackluster Tampa Bay offense.
The primary concern for Cleveland on Friday is the fact that their offense has been worse than league average against left-handed pitching down the stretch in 2022. Across the last 30 days, the Guardians rank only 15th in OPS, 30th in ISO, and 28th in HardHit% against southpaws. Cleveland has also struggled to work the count against left-handed pitching in that span, ranking 30th in walk rate as an offense.
Still, it might not take many runs for Cleveland to secure a win in this spot. If Bieber can work into the 6th inning, Manager Tito Francona has one of the league’s best relief units at his disposal – capped off with the hard-throwing Emmanuel Clase in the 9th inning. Since the All-Star break, the Guardians’ bullpen ranks 1st in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, and 2nd in walk rate. Similar to Tampa Bay, everyone in this arm barn is available and rested entering Friday.
Rays-Guardians Pick
In this matchup, Cleveland has the better starting pitcher, the slightly better offense, and the slightly better bullpen. There are certainly postseason concerns for a team with as much youth as the Guardians, but playing at noon on a Friday is likely to help reduce the “bright lights” effect that is customarily talked about this time of year for young players. Cleveland is the better team and has the benefit of home field advantage on Friday – expect them to get the job done.
PICKS: Guardians ML (-116)
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