Shane Bieber Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tuesday night’s 12 game slate features six $10K pitchers (three on DraftKings) along with one more exceeding $9K on each site. Most expensively, costing $11.2K on both sites, Gerrit Cole has allowed just two home runs on five barrels (5.9%) over his last five starts, but with just a 26.8 K% with downward trending velocity. This is a small concern, but he’s still completed six innings in 23 of his last 24 starts and has a 25.2 K-BB% with all estimators below his 3.28 ERA on the season. The Twins (112 wRC+, 22.0 K% vs RHP) were that one start though (five home runs). They smash fastballs (0.32 wFB/C). In addition to the tough matchup, weather is going to be another challenge here with Kevin currently forecasting a straight ORANGE for this game with all day rain in New York. Weather will be a theme throughout this slate, though this is the only game that appears to put SPs in danger. Assuming they do play, there’s a cluster atop the board with three pitchers fighting for the top overall projection between Cole and two others. While Cole is the highest upside of the three, conditions could also make him the riskiest. He also projects as the fifth best value on either site.

Costing $11K on FanDuel, but a full $1K less on DraftKings, Framber Valdez generally has higher strikeout totals than you’d expect with a 22.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% because his 67.0 GB% (4.0% Barrels/BBE) helps him erase a lot of his walks and pitch deep into games, but he’s struck out exactly eight in three of his last four starts (26.8 K%) and recorded seventh inning outs in seven straight. Valdez also has 22 straight Quality Starts. His 2.63 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.15 xFIP to a 3.48 DRA, but the Astros have one of the best defenses in the game (18 Runs Prevented) and their .266 BABIP allowed is actually lower than his .269 mark. Currently the third best projected pitcher on either site, though less than two points from the top spot, Valdez is not in any spot against the Rangers (118 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 16.9 HR/FB vs LHP), but it is a weather protected negative run environment with the roof closed and the Rangers can’t homer if they can’t get the ball off the ground. Valdez projects as the second best DK value (fourth best on FD).

With his velocity creeping upwards, Shane Bieber is still below the last couple of years, but has struck out 20 of his last 53 batters. Bieber now has a 20.6 K-BB% on the season and has completed seven innings in five of his last seven, at least six innings in 20 of his last 23. A 3.43 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter run removed from a 3.06 ERA. He’s only allowed 6.9% Barrels/BBE, but with a 90 mph EV and 42.6% 95+ mph EV. Costing within $300 of $10.5K on either site, Bieber is in a nice spot in Kansas City (91 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 8.7 HR/FB) with potentially pitcher friendly weather and umpiring. He, of course, is the other pitcher in that top group cluster with Cole and Valdez, projecting as the second best FanDuel value (fourth best on DraftKings).

Kyle Wright has gone at least six innings in nine straight starts (eight Quality Starts) and at least seven in five of his last 11. He’s allowed just three runs over his last 26 innings and the strikeout rate is on the rise again too (28% last three starts). Sitting on a comfortable 17.1 K-BB%, estimators ranging from a 3.23 DRA to a 3.82 xERA are a bit above his 2.85 ERA with some regression expected in an 81.3 LOB%, though even if that occurs, this is the best version of Kyle Wright we have seen and he’s in a great spot in Oakland (83 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) with a significant park upgrade. Wright is your fourth best projected arm, right behind that top cluster and the third best projected DK value (sixth best on FD).

The FanDuel main slate stands at just five games tonight, while DraftKings will start an hour earlier and include all seven, which means there probably won’t be full lineup disclosure at lock with two west coast games. Four of seven parks have dome capabilities and there are no weather issues expected in the other three. This slate is loaded with pitchers who have traditionally been workhorses, but have not been this season, due to both the shorter spring ramp up and early performance issues. Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher to reach $10K on DraftKings and does not on FanDuel only because he’s not available on that site tonight. He owns the top overall point projection on DK currently (PlateIQ projections). After a rough first outing at Wrigley, Burnes has simply struck out 18 of his last 50 batters with a single walk and two solo home runs the only damage against him over 14 innings. The 3.61 FIP is about a run above most other estimators and 45.5% of his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat, while the 24.4 K-BB% is actually two points below his career rate. He’s just fine, even if his velocity is down about a mile per hour from last year. There may be some strikeout prone bats at the top of this San Francisco lineup, which is not to say they are not still very dangerous (112 wRC+ vs RHP this year).

Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber are the two $10K pitchers on FanDuel tonight and the only two remaining pitchers above $9K on DraftKings. Scherzer has been fortunate that just one of five barrels (13.2%) has left the yard and he’s walked seven of 69 batters. That said, he’s also struck out exactly one-third of them and only 28.9% of his contact has been at or above a 95 mph EV. His 2.50 ERA is only a bit below estimators that range only as high as a 3.16 xFIP and DRA. St Louis is a power suppressing park and likely the second most negative run environment on the slate behind Seattle. The Cardinal lineup likely won’t have a ton of strikeouts in it, but they have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and 77 wRC+ over the last seven days. Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on FanDuel and just behind Burnes on DK. He’s currently projected to be the most popular on both.

Diminished velocity be damned. Bieber is down over two miles per hour via Statcast, but still living large with a 22.4 K-BB% and 13.9 SwStr% through three starts. That being said, none of his four barrels (10.3%) have left the yard and an 89.3 mph EV so far would be tied for the lowest he’s ever generated. Maybe the shortened 2020 season was a very short peak by a large margin, but the worst of his estimators is still just a 3.13 DRA so far. The Angels have some very dangerous hitters when they’re fully healthy, but also a ton of strikeouts in the projected lineup. Bieber is the next best projected pitcher after Scherzer on either site, but with much reduced ownership considering the size of the slate, at least in comparison to Burners and Scherzer, which makes him a great GPP option.

A full 30 pitcher board on Tuesday night sees five pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site with Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow the only pitchers reaching that price tag on both sites (both reach $11K on FanDuel). It’s fair to call them the top two overall pitchers on the board without much separation tonight. While Glasnow is assured of a controlled, negative run environment in the dome against the Nationals (87 wRC+ vs RHP), five of nine projected Washington batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Bieber travels to St Louis, a generally power suppressing park, though it can play a bit more hitter friendly in the hotter months, so check the forecast and Weather Edge for updates. The Cardinals also have an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, but with only three projected batters above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020. Conveniently, both pitchers own a 35.6 K%, tied for second on the board, and both consistently pitch deep into games, almost three full trips through the lineup on average. If you’re looking for reasons to fade or drop underweight, according to their ownership projections, both pitchers have experienced reduced velocity (Bieber since last season, Glasnow since the beginning of this season) with hard contact issues when contact is made (Bieber 9.4% Barrels/BBE, Glasnow 9.6%).

The remaining three pitchers to meet or exceed $10K on FanDuel include Walker Buehler, Carlos Rodon and Framber Valdez. Buehler’s strength has been pitching deep into games this year, at least six innings in all 11 outings with nine Quality Starts. He also gets the Pirates (83 wRC+) with four of eight projected batters owning a 25 K% or higher vs RHP since 2020. The negatives are that the strikeout rate is not elite (25.7%), while he’s had contact issues too (9.6% Barrels/BBE) with reduced velocity as well. His 2.82 ERA is the results of a .243 BABIP and 85.6 LOB%. All of his estimators remain below four though. After easing his way back in against the Padres, Valdez struck out 10 of 28 Red Sox with 13 of 16 batted balls on the ground last time out. Perhaps that performance elevated his price tag too much. We can’t expect a repeat performance at Fenway tonight. There are five projected batters in the Boston lineup above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020, but they do have a 108 wRC+ at home and 102 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Valdez is more of an option on DraftKings ($8.6K), especially if J.D. Martinez remains out.

The highest strikeout rate on the board belongs to Carlos Rodon ((37.2%, 16.6 SwStr%). He’s coming off his worst start of the season, as Cleveland connected on three of the five home runs he’s allowed this year, but still has estimators around two and a half with a 31.2 K-BB% and 6.0% Barrels/BBE. So, while he generally doesn’t experience the hard contact issues that Bieber, Glasnow and Buehler have this year, he does have the toughest matchup against the Blue Jays (105 wRC+ vs LHP), who have a predominantly RH lineup, though six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020. PlateIQ actually projects value for the top pitchers in order of price tag with Bieber and Glasnow still at the top on a point per dollar basis, but it’s fairly close and hard to argue. There may be some stronger values further down on the board and that’s certainly an option tonight, while Buehler and Valdez may be a tad over-priced on FanDuel. Ownership should be spread out enough to cease from being a major issue tonight.

Shane Bieber, Yu Darvish and Walker Buehler are your $10K pitchers on Wednesday night with Freddy Peralta the only other one reaching $9K on either site. Starting at the bottom, Peralta has been missing bats at a beyond elite level this year (40.2 K%, 14.7 SwStr%), though we probably shouldn’t expect him to sustain those numbers. The issues with his price tag today are walks (12.5%), Barrels (11.8%, 36 GB%) and workload. He hasn’t faced more than 22 batters in a start this year because he’s quickly running up his pitch count with all the walks and he has yet to cultivate a quality third pitch that would inspire confidence in sending him through the order a third time. He’s also in the most hitter friendly run environment of the four in Philly.

Darvish has the top matchup among high end pitchers, hosting the Pirates in a negative run environment. They have just an 86 wRC+ and 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. All of that said, there are some things to watch for in his profile, including a reduced swinging strike rate (11.9%) and a 29.8 GB% that’s more than 10 points below his career rate. They’re not things to be concerned about in this matchup necessarily though. However, they may push the decision towards Bieber, who has a low of nine strikeouts over six starts. His 2.76 ERA is pretty damn close to, but actually above all his estimators. Here’s the crazy thing for a pitcher in 2021. He’s averaging more than three times through the order per start. There are actually five batters in the Kansas City projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Buehler has his own merits, most glaringly a cool/cold day in Chicago with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. The Cubs have a strong, somewhat contact prone lineup with only four of eight projected above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. Buehler has started to realize that the fastball isn’t working this year. It’s down a mph, has a .378 xwOBA and has been responsible for three of his four HRs surrendered. After giving up a home run on his first pitch of the game, a fastball to Jesse Winker last time out, he threw his cutter a season high 28% of the time the rest of the way. That’s double his rate this season and last season for the pitch. The curveball (18.9%, .250 xwOBA, 40 Whiff%) is really the pitch he needs to get to more often though. Considering all factors and price tags, Bieber is probably your top overall arm on the slate with potential value running fairly close among the three. In terms of ownership, Darvish may be most popular due to perceived matchup strength. If Bieber finds himself projected at lower ownership, he’s probably the best play. Buehler is likely the GPP leverage play though. Be sure to check ownership projections when they update later this afternoon.

Three pitchers exceed $10K on at least one site tonight with Yu Darvish at $9.5K on DraftKings. No other pitchers have a price tag above $9K. Gerrit Cole will likely be the most popular pitcher on the slate because he’s facing the Tigers. With an outrageous 39.5 K-BB% through five starts against a team with a projected lineup including five batters with a 24.9 K% or higher vs RHP since 2019, there’s very little reason to question why. The wind is blowing…no, blasting out to center, but Detroit has to make contact with the ball for that to be a concern. If they do, Cole’s gotten a bit lucky with three of his four Barrels being allowed in his last start without a HR allowed since his first. The 92.2 mph EV and 35.4 GB% are less of an issue when barely half the batters are making contact.

Speaking of low ground ball rates, there are a couple of maybe not red, but yellow flags in Yu Darvish’s early 2021 profile, despite stellar results. The 30.3 K% is just a single point below each of the last two seasons, but his 11.5 SwStr% is just league average and a multi-point drop from the last couple of years. His velocity is down about a mile per hour from last year too. Despite a career low 30.1 GB%, he still manages contact really well (86.1 mph EV). This is not to suggest that he’s not still a very capable pitcher, but it could be something to keep in mind on close decisions. The Giants don’t strike out much either. Only one batter in the projected lineup exceeds a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Shane Bieber has been down a mile per hour in velocity and while it hasn’t made a difference in his strikeouts (39.3%, 19.1 SwStr%), he has allowed five HRs on seven Barrels (9.5%) . His 44.6 GB% and 89 mph EV are fairly close to career marks. Non-FIP estimators are a bit higher than last year, in the mid-twos. He’s also facing the most potent offense of the three tonight in Chicago (White Sox 117 wRC+ vs RHP, 147 wRC+ last seven days). It’s a dangerous and powerful lineup, but there are still a few things in Bieber’s favor here. There should be some strikeouts in this lineup (23% vs RHP or higher for six of nine projected batters since 2019). He may also benefit from the most pitcher friendly weather conditions of the three with temperatures potentially below 50 degrees. If ownership projections suggest that Cole is going to be an overwhelming favorite tonight, Bieber should be your GPP leverage alternative. If it looks to be a bit closer, Cole may have the slight overall edge. Any of the three is probably fine though tonight.