Buccaneers vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Buccaneers vs. 49ers Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | +3.5 |
| 49ers Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 37.5 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to Santa Clara to battle the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Coming off of a thrilling 17-16 victory on Monday Night Football, the Buccaneers are on short rest as they look to get over the .500 mark for the first time since October. Dealing with injuries to each of their top two quarterbacks, the 49ers will turn to third-string signal caller Brock Purdy, with the hope of keeping their five game winning streak alive. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, pricing the 49ers as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay enters play having won three of their last four contests, with their only loss in that span being a 4th quarter collapse against the Cleveland Browns – a game in which the Buccaneers lost in overtime. However, this offense has not scored more than 21 points in any of those three wins, and there continues to be a troubling lack of production from this group outside of no-huddle situations, which are unsustainable to use for an entire game. Since Week 9, the Buccaneers rank only 19th in offensive EPA/play. Tristan Wirfs is doubtful to play on Sunday as he continues to deal with ankle and knee injuries. Left tackle Donovan Smith is doubtful to make a positive impact on the game, with his production becoming increasingly concerning as the season has progressed. In the last two games alone, Smith has allowed two sacks, five quarterback hurries, and nine quarterback pressures. His life will not get any easier in Week 14, considering that the 49ers’ defense ranks 5th in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt.
Defensively, Tampa Bay is in another precarious position, with safeties Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield Jr. both being listed as doubtful after not participating in practice on Friday. Though Andy Dalton had only 229 passing yards on Monday Night Football, he could have put together a much more impressive final collection of statistics, if not for a number of costly dropped passes down-the-field. Cornerback Carlton Davis’ continued struggles this fall have also hurt this secondary unit, which could be vulnerable in a matchup against a San Francisco wide receiver corps that features top-end speed.
San Francisco 49ers
In relief of Jimmy Garoppolo last weekend, Brock Purdy performed admirably, completing 25-of-37 pass attempts for 210 passing yards and two touchdowns. However, it was painfully evident that the coaching staff did not fully trust him with the offense – judging by the fact that his average depth of target was only 5.4 yards. The key for San Francisco on Sunday will be to keep Purdy clean. Last weekend, Purdy was 20-for-26 for 168 passing yards from a clean pocket, but only 5-for-11 for 42 passing yards and an interception when under pressure. This will be easier said than done against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 4th in the NFL this season in sacks per pass attempt.
During San Francisco’s five-game winning streak, they lead the league in defensive EPA/play, having been elite against both the run and the pass. Notably, defensive end Nick Bosa will be on the field this afternoon, but he will be on a pitch count, per David Lombardi, due to a hamstring injury that has kept him from practicing. Defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway has been ruled out for this contest, but he has not played more than 31 snaps in any game this season, making him a manageable loss. Expect this group to continue their run of dominance in this spot against an anemic Tampa Bay offense.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers – Picks & Predictions
Tampa Bay has scored between 11 and 20 points in seven of their 12 games so far in 2022. In three of their other games, they have scored 21 points, 21 points, and 22 points. Facing an elite San Francisco defense on Sunday, in rainy and cold weather, it is doubtful that the Buccaneers will be able to achieve one of their higher team totals of the season. In essence, bettors can rule out any situation in which the Buccaneers score north of 20 points, and then get plus-money odds if Tom Brady and company simply manage to get into the low double-digits. This is a worthwhile risk, given the market price.
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-20 Total Points (+130, DraftKings)