Titans vs. Packers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Titans vs. Packers Odds
| Titans Odds | +3.5 |
| Packers Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 40.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 17 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Amazon |
This evening, Week 11 of the NFL regular season will begin with a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football. Entering play, Tennessee holds a commanding division lead in the AFC South after winning six of their last seven contests. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers come into this primetime affair on a high-note after a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Still, Green Bay is only 4-6 on the year, with a -31 point-differential. Nonetheless, oddsmakers are expecting the Packers to come away with a win in this spot, pricing Green Bay as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee Titans
After missing two games with an injury, Ryan Tannehill returned to the field in Week 10 to lead the Titans to victory over the Denver Broncos. In the victory, Tannehill threw for two touchdowns and 255 passing yards. On the season, Tannehill ranks 17th among qualified signal callers in EPA/play, and tonight will be tasked with finding open receivers against a Green Bay secondary unit that ranks 10th in defense Dropback EPA/play this fall. The primary advantage for the Titans in this matchup will be on the ground, with Derrick Henry getting carries against a Packers’ run defense that ranks 27th in opponent yards-per-carry in 2022. If Tannehill can manage to take care of the football, this offense should be able to dominate the time of possession, and at minimum, keep this game competitive.
Defensively, Tennessee ranks 11th in Dropback EPA/play and 3rd in Rush EPA/play this fall. Since allowing 41 points to the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 2, the Titans rank 6th overall in defensive EPA/play, making this one of the most formidable units in the entire NFL in that span. On Thursday, Tennessee will once again be without safety Amani Hooker, but his absence in recent weeks has not had a huge impact on the efficacy of this pass defense. Assuming Jeffery Simmons suits up for this game, the Titans’ defense should be able to deliver another strong performance.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers and company were able to pull-off a thrilling victory over the Cowboys in Week 10, but it is doubtful as to whether that recipe for success is sustainable. On Sunday, Green Bay was out-gained, out-first-downed, and trailed by as many as 14 points in the fourth quarter. In the win, Christian Watson was the only wide receiver to make a strong impact, as he was the only pass-catcher with more than three catches and the only member of the receiving corps to total a touchdown or more than 47 receiving yards. In a matchup against a tough Tennessee run defense, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are unlikely to replicate their 221 yards of total offense. It is difficult to see where the production will come from the offensive part of this roster on Thursday if the ground attack is ineffective.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Packers have a major vulnerability against Derrick Henry, who leads the league in rushing attempts, ranks 2nd in rushing yards, and leads all running backs with nine touchdowns. Since Week 3, the Packers rank 27th in the NFL in Rush EPA/play, ahead of only the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Cleveland Browns. If Green Bay is unable to take an early lead in this one, and is thus unable to force Ryan Tannehill into a pass-heavy game script – this defense could struggle to get off of the field in this matchup.
Titans vs. Packers – Picks & Predictions
Simply, the Titans are better than the Packers on both sides of the ball in this Thursday Night Football affair. If not for Green Bay’s come-from-behind victory in Week 10, this line would likely be much closer to a pick’em. It may be psychologically uncomfortable for bettors to trust Ryan Tannehill in a hostile environment on the road, but Tennessee is the smart play if taking action in this spot.
PICK: Titans +3 (+100, FanDuel)
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