Titans vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-11-06 14:22:01

Titans vs. Chiefs Odds

This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Entering play, both teams are 5-2 and sitting in first place in their respective division. However, Kansas City owns the second-best point differential in the AFC, while Tennessee ranks 9th. Consequently, oddsmakers are expecting a lopsided affair between these two teams, pricing the Chiefs as a 12.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Tennessee Titans

Through seven games this fall, the Titans rank 24th in offensive EPA/play, with worse than league average advanced metrics both through the air and on the ground. The passing attack could once again be limited if Ryan Tannehill, who is a game-time decision, is unable to suit-up. If Tannehill is unable to go, rookie Malik Willis will be under center for the Titans. In his first career start last week against the Houston Texans, Willis completed 6-of-10 pass attempts for 55 yards and an interception. He added only 12 yards with his legs on five rushing attempts. If Willis is forced into action on Sunday Night Football, the Titans will likely lean heavily on Derrick Henry, who had 32 carries for 219 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Texans. However, the one-dimensional approach that Tennessee used to eke out a Week 8 victory is unlikely to lead to the same positive result against a much better team in this spot.

Defensively, the Titans have been strong through the early portion of the campaign – ranking 10th in defensive EPA/play. Yet, this unit is not without their weaknesses – notably, ranking 23rd in opponent completion percentage. The absence of safety Amani Hooker will only further hurt this secondary’s ability to slow down a lethal Kansas City air attack in this matchup. If defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who is currently listed as questionable, does not play, this Tennessee defense could be far weaker than bettors have grown accustomed to seeing over the past few months.

Kansas City Chiefs

Despite losing his top wideout during the off-season, Patrick Mahomes has not missed a beat in 2022. Entering play on Sunday, Mahomes ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards, 1st in passing touchdowns, and 3rd in QBR. As a group, the Chiefs lead the NFL in offensive EPA/play after seven contests, and by a wide margin. Strong offensive line play coupled with a balanced ground game continues to make this one of the most difficult offenses in the league to stop on a weekly basis.

On the defensive side of the ball, Kansas City ranks only 22nd in overall defensive EPA/play, having struggled to stop opposing passing and rushing attacks. Yet, there is reason to believe that bettors have not seen the best of this unit in 2022, with first-round draft pick Trent McDuffie being activated from injured reserve earlier in the week. Factoring in that Tennessee’s offense could be limited dramatically by the potential presence of Malik Willis – Kansas City’s defense should be able to turn in a strong performance in primetime this evening.

Titans vs. Chiefs – Picks & Predictions

The Tennessee Titans managed to escape in Week 8 with a victory over the hapless Houston Texans, despite only amassing 55 passing yards on 10 pass attempts. It is highly unlikely that the Titans find a way to successfully replicate such a one-dimensional offensive approach in this spot against a much more talented Kansas City Chiefs team. Still, the Titans are likely to do everything they can to control the time of possession on the ground, which could lead to a lower-scoring affair if Tennessee manages to move the chains reasonably well. Assuming Jeffery Simmons plays for the Titans’ defense, bettors should expect a lower-scoring affair in this spot – take the under.

PICK: Under 47 (-130, DraftKings)

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