Texans vs. Jets Player Props: Three Predictions for Thursday Night Football
What can we expect on Thursday from Joe Mixon, Xavier Hutchinson, and Aaron Rodgers? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Thursday, October 31, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football features a pair of premier teams, with C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans traveling to play Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Texans vs. Jets, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Thursday!
Texans vs. Jets – NFL Player Props
- Joe Mixon Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
- Xavier Hutchinson Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
- Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions
Joe Mixon OVER 0.5 Touchdowns (-135, FanDuel)
New York’s run defense has been abysmal during the first half of the regular season, ranking 22nd in EPA/play, 24th in success rate, and 23rd in DVOA. The game plan has been very clear for Houston since Nico Collins landed on injured reserve: run the football. They handed the ball off 25 times in Week 6, 28 times in Week 7, and 28 times in Week 8 (excluding attempts by Stroud). During the last 3 weeks, Mixon ranks 2nd in the entire NFL in red-zone rush attempts and 5th in goal-line carries. This is a very playable price for someone who is unquestionably the team’s top option in short-yardage situations.
Xavier Hutchinson OVER 0.5 Touchdowns (+500, FanDuel)
If looking for a longshot wager, Hutchinson fits the criteria for a worthwhile risk. The absence of Collins and Stefon Diggs means that the Texans will be without both of their top two wide receivers, including both of their top red-zone threats. Though Tank Dell is a high-quality WR3, his 5’10’’, 165-pound frame isn’t exactly built to take big hits in the red zone. Meanwhile, Hutchinson is 6’3’’, 210 pounds and ran the 2nd-most routes of any receiver for Houston in Week 8. Hutchinson is likely to be on the field if the Texans are throwing the ball near the goal line.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-115, Bet365)
Rodgers has thrown 7 interceptions already this season, but most of those haven’t been his fault. According to PFF, Rodgers has the 3rd-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (TWP%) of any qualified quarterback in the NFL this season. The rest of the top 5 in TWP% each have 3 interceptions or fewer through the first half of the season — which, of course, comes to far less than 1 interception per game.
Houston’s defense does have the 7th-most interceptions in the league this season, but this is simply too good of a price to pass up for Rodgers to avoid an interception. The biggest risk is likely a deflected pass or some other uncontrollable event.
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