THE BLITZ: An Examination in DFS Precision
THE BLITZ: An Examination in DFS Precision
It’s rare that a projection system is really held accountable by tracking and quantifying its results. With so many DFS experts out there, why aren’t there more published records to prove whether a system is profitable? Transparency is key to building expertise, trust, and differentiation; and a factual exploration of THE BLITZ’s profitability is what this article is about.
I’m going to walk you through how THE BLITZ can outperform benchmarks and generate even higher returns.
THE BLITZ projection system uses advanced sabermetric techniques to form what we believe to be the most sophisticated NFL Player Projection system on the market. And what truly ignites this proven analytics system beyond basic projection statistics is the overlay of advanced factors including scouting-combine data, holistic player considerations, and game context adjustments. Details about THE BLITZ’s can be found here.
The team behind THE BLITZ’s innovation is Derek Carty, DFS expert and creator of THE BAT projection system for MLB DFS—proven to outperform Vegas lines—and PropWizard Professional Sports Handicapping, which applies the same advanced methods as Vegas Oddsmakers to strengthen and refine player projections.
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The challenge with buying any DFS content is determining its worth. Is paid content more accurate than free content? Do I want to risk my paycheck to find out? What does an accuracy test look like, anyway?
There are several ways to conduct accuracy tests on a projection system. For example, I can illustrate how THE BLITZ outperforms competitive projections. I can quantify the strong mathematical correlation between player projections and confirmed player results. I can even document strong DFS scores or tout prize winnings. But the drawback to all of these tactics is their failure to quantify a return.
Since NFL kickoff, I tracked the cash-line for one of the largest cash game contests (DraftKing’s Massive $25 Double Up) and the largest GPP Contest (DraftKings’s Million Maker GPP). Why? Sample size and competitive analysis. Both of these contests offer large sample sizes for multi-platform comparisons, and the bigger the sample size, the stronger the statistical significance. I also wanted to compare a Cash contest and a GPP contest that offer similar formats: entry fees ($25 and $20 respectively), and eligibility for multi-entries. Both contests qualify. Moreover, these contests produce higher cash-line scores, meaning it’s harder to profit vs. smaller or more limited contests. The multi-entry contests attract the sharpest DFS players because it allows them to play for more money than when playing in smaller, single-entry contests.
What does this all mean? If THE BLITZ can outperform the benchmarks of these larger, more competitive contests, it’s reasonable to conclude THE BLITZ would generate even higher returns in less competitive contests.
The contest results are tracked below, broken out in two tables.
Table One compares THE BLITZ’s optimal lineup score vs. the cash-line score for the Massive $25 Double-Up contest.
Table Two compares THE BLITZ’s optimal lineup score vs. the Millionaire Maker GPP contest cash-line.
The second column in both tables displays THE BLITZ’s optimal roster score (i.e. what your score would have been if you had played THE BLITZ’s optimal lineup).
The third column displays the cash-line score for that contest. Simply stated, if THE BLITZ’s score was higher than the cash-line, THE BLITZ was profitable.
The adjacent columns display additional data including the contest’s size, entry fee, payout, THE BLITZ’s total profit, and ROI.
Because transparency is so important for DFS fans, screenshots were taken each week of the optimal lineup on both DraftKings AND within RotoGrinders NFL DFS lineup optimizer. The authenticity of the cash-line scores can be verified via RG ResultsDB – Here
Key Takeaways:
— THE BLITZ is profitable in both the Massive Cash contest and the Massive GPP contest
— THE BLITZ produced a 20% ROI in Cash contests and 25% ROI in GPP contests—or a 22%+ ROI combined.
— On average, THE BLITZ’s optimal lineup score outperformed 65% of Cash contestants and 78% GPP contestants.
Playing THE BLITZ optimal lineup would have more than doubled your weekly investment after 10 weeks.
At first glance, a total profit of $100 after 10 weeks may not seem like a lot, however, the calculations are based off of a single entry for both contests. Had you played the max number of entries each week, using only THE BLITZ’s optimal lineup, you would have yielded over $12,000 over that same 10-week span.
The main takeaway isn’t the total profit, though; it’s the 22%+ ROI. Given you need to win more than 57.5% of the time just to break even, a 22%+ ROI is strong.
But if an ROI of 22%+ still isn’t good enough for you, it’s very easy to revise your strategy. In the examples above, I’m calculating results of a single entry in both a Cash and GPP contest, however, these contests attract sharper competition.
Week 1-4 Optimal Lineps
Week 5-8 Optimal Lineps
Week 9-10 Optimal Lineps
Develop a more consistent ROI with these tips:
Cash Games:
Instead of submitting multi-entries in a Massive Double-Ups, first invest your money in H2H contests or single-entry Double-Up contests.
— These contests have a smaller rake, thus DK takes a smaller percentage of the prize money, and you take a greater percentage
— It’s likely the competition is less fierce, only increasing your probability to win
GPP Games:
— Instead of submitting multi-entries in Massive GPP contests, first invest your money in single-entry GPP contests. It’s likely the competition is less fierce because the Sharp DFS players aren’t able to saturate the contest with +EV lineups.
— Instead of blindly copying THE BLITZ’s optimal lineup and submitting it in a GPP contest, first identify the players THE BLITZ projects highly, but are expected to have low ownership. You’ll increase your win probability when the player does well, but is lesser owned.
With so many touts in the market vying for your trust, and so much DFS content clouding your judgement with smoke and mirrors, how can you be certain of your projection system’s profitability? If your system isn’t documenting its results to prove its value, it may be worth questioning why not.
Sure, 10 weeks is certainly something of a small sample, but it’s the half-way point in the season (including playoffs) and well past half-way if you’re just counting the regular season. With THE BLITZ, not only are you getting a system that relies on sound mathematical principles and the most advanced sabermetric methodology, but you’re also getting quantifiable results of potential ROI. What you do with this information is up to you.
