The DFS Report: Week 7
JMToWin looks at nine topics of note to kick off the DFS week.
1. Goodbye, Aaron Rodgers
I remember the first time Aaron Rodgers played meaningful snaps in an NFL game – against Dallas, in a 27-37 loss, in which Rodgers entered for an injured Favre and went 18 for 26, for 201 yards and a touchdown (adding five rushes for 30 yards on the ground). My buddies and I talked after the game about how good Rodgers looked, and about how excited we were to see him play an entire season.
There’s a certain joy in watching people who are the best in the world at their craft – and Aaron Rodgers is undeniably one of the best in the world at his craft. Much like Clayton Kershaw in baseball, Rodgers is a guy I go out of my way to watch, as he is just that much of a treat for fans of good football.
It’s a bummer to lose him for the rest of this year.
Here’s to hoping he comes back stronger than ever next season.
2. Hello, NBA
Really, though. (Or, if I wanted to sound more hip: Really, tho.) Could the NBA have asked for a better Tip Off storyline than the Celtics and Kyrie Irving traveling to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers and LeBron James?
I don’t play NBA DFS, and I don’t have time on Tuesdays for anything in the world besides my computer, as I pour every available minute from Monday afternoon through the end of Wednesday into the NFL Edge. But I just might carve out a few minutes to track the score in this game, and to tune in down the stretch. This is a great way for the season to tip off.
Even as a non-NBA-DFSer, I can feel the excitement around the industry. It is truly the most wonderful time of the DFS year, as NFL overlaps with the daily excitement/craziness of NBA.
3. Why Do You Play DFS?
This brings me to another thought: Why do you play DFS?
Hopefully, you play to make money. That’s a big part of this, after all – and if you’re not playing to make money, you’re probably not going to make money.
But realistically – when it comes down to it – a close second among “reasons to play DFS” is because is it just plain fun. In fact, when you think of all the ways there are to make money, because it’s just plain fun might even be the first reason we gravitate toward daily fantasy sports.
As you reenter a truly daily sport, you are going to ride some ups and downs. Sometimes, you’re going to ride huge ups and downs. But along the way – through all the winnings, and even through the dry patches – remember that you play DFS because it’s thrilling, and exciting, and incredibly fun.
4. Has There Been An Uglier Week Than Week 7?
Six games on Sunday have an Over/Under of 42.0 or lower.
Three games do not yet have a total posted (as of this writing), though two of them (Jacksonville at Indianapolis and Tampa Bay at Buffalo) will probably join the party.
If you are playing on FanDuel, you have the high-total game on Sunday night between the Patriots and the Falcons, but the Main Slate on DraftKings currently offers only three games with a total north of 42.0.
Part of the beauty of DFS is that each slate is an entirely new puzzle. You start with the pieces that have been provided to you, and you figure out the best way to put them together. May the best puzzle win!
This week, “the best puzzle” may be a whole lot uglier than the puzzles that won in other weeks.
5. Speaking of Winning…
This is a good time to bring you up to date on our NFL Consensus Value Rankings accuracy standings.
Each week, our Premium subscribers have access to the point-per-dollar rankings of some of the top minds in the industry – and along the way, we track the accuracy standings to determine who the most accurate rankers are.
The Top 5 FanDuel rankers are as follows:
1. JMToWin
2. squirrelpatrol
3. headChopper
4. meansy53
5. ChrisGimino
The Top 5 DraftKings rankers are as follows:
1. BigT44
2. meansy53
3. Notorious
4. headChopper
5. squirrelpatrol
This might be the last time you see me near the top for a bit; I believe I had a rough week this last weekend in my rankings, so I will celebrate the first place ranking while I still can…
6. Geez, Meansy!
Andy Means ranks fourth in FanDuel rankings and second in DraftKings rankings. He’s also about to make your NBA DFS life a whole lot easier than it has ever been before.
With the launch of NBA Premium, Meansy will be headlining one of the most exciting features we have ever had at RotoGrinders:
Each Monday through Friday, Kevin Roth will host Crunch Time with Meansy from 30 minutes before tip off until 15 minutes after – in which Meansy will track late-breaking injury news and break down for our Premium subscribers exactly how he sees that news impacting rotations, usage, DFS salary allocation, etc. Roth will also field questions from Premium Chat to ask Meansy on air – taking you up to lock with one of the brightest minds in the industry.
This dude is crushing the DFS universe right now!
7. Also Crushing The DFS Universe…
In a totally different sense of the word, Julio Jones is crushing the DFS universe at the moment.
I executed a near-complete fade of Julio this last week – choosing to make it up to Antonio Brown instead (which would have been cool if I had not also executed a near-complete fade of Jerick McKinnon) – and part of the reason was that it seems like Steve Sarkisian just does not get it. If it’s fun to witness someone who is among the best in the world at their profession, Sarkisian did not get the memo – and if it’s easier to win football games by throwing the ball to one of the best receivers of his generation, no one told Sarkisian.
Eighteen wide receivers in the NFL are averaging more targets per game than Julio. On the list of “Things that should not happen,” that’s near the top.
Seventy-seven players in the NFL (yes, 77) have more targets inside the 10-yard-line than Julio this year. Because he has been thrown to only once inside the 10-yard-line through the first five games.
Here’s to hoping the Falcons fix this…
…and as a Patriots fan, here’s to hoping the Falcons wait just one more week before they do.
8. Game I’m Most Excited About Watching This Week
Outside of the Patriots and Falcons (a game made even more fun by the fact that my dad will be in town this next weekend, and I’ll get to watch the game with him), I’m looking forward to watching the Saints and Packers. I think the Packers’ offense has a lot of sneaky upside against the Saints – even in the absence of Rodgers. This game should be a blast to watch – and a blast for DFS production as well.
9. Non-DFS Note
Never order Chipotle using the app. It seems great at first glance (you get to skip the line and pick up your ready-to-go, already-paid-for food), but they have gotten seven consecutive orders incorrect for me. At this point, I’m just ordering through the app to see how long the streak can go…
See you at the top of the leaderboards
Hopefully I’ll see you this Wednesday night on the NFL Edge – where I’ll be breaking down all 15 games on the weekend from top to bottom in Premium.
Hopefully I’ll see you on Premium Chat later this weekend.
Hopefully I’ll see you this Friday night, when I’ll be hanging with Adam Levitan on GrindersLive.
And I’ll definitely see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend – as we crush Week 7!