The Masters 2023: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:54:37

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Masters. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

At long last, our favorite weekend of the year is upon us. The fresh beauty of azaleas, amen corner, the white jumpsuits adorned by caddies — nothing is more pleasing to the eye of a golf fan than Augusta National for The Masters. In a year where golf’s most elite continue to win tournaments, the most elite players across the globe will meet in Augusta, Georgia for the most prestigious tournament on the calendar. We will open a “tradition like no other” with betting odds and a look at this year’s field.

The Masters Betting Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – April 3rd – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Masters:

• 2022 – Scottie Scheffler (-10)
• 2021 – Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
• 2020 – Dustin Johnson (-20)
• 2019 – Tiger Woods (-13)
• 2018 – Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2017 – Sergio Garcia (-9)
• 2016 – Danny Willett (-5)
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth (-18)

With a win at the Valero Texas Open, Corey Conners blocked an additional entrant to a field of 88 players. To qualify for an invitation to The Masters, for the most part, a player must be in the Top 50 in the OWGR, a previous winner of The Masters, or a winner on tour since the 2022 Masters.

Tiger Wood will make his return to Augusta National after a nice long break since the Genesis. Aaron Wise is the only players with an invitation that will not attend this year’s event citing mental health concerns. Further, LIV golfers will make their return to our television screens because of their dwindling Top 50 status. Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith seem to be the only players entering bettor’s radars for the week.

The top three are the focal point of the event so much so that many sports betting sites are offering “Masters Winner without” odds. While we struggle to bet the shortest golfers on the board, how could we argue with anyone backing Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Jon Rahm at this point? The three golfers have easily been the most dominant golfers on tour this season with Scheffler continuing to show why he is undoubtedly the World #1.

The top 50 golfers and ties will make the weekend at Augusta this weekend. Given the field features 15 older winners and amateurs combined, the better players in the field should make the cut. We might see an older winner or amateur sneak inside the cut line but that normally feels unlikely.

Let’s have a look at the course and relevant statistics.

2023 Masters Betting Preview

• Course: Augusta National
• Date: April 6 – 9
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,545
• Greens: Bentgrass

The most picturesque week of the year on the PGA Tour will take place at the most history-rich course. The Masters, always hosted by Augusta National, will feature gorgeously decorated boundary lines with agriculture we wait for all season. As golf evolves, The Masters continues to work on making the test more difficult for golfers year in and year out.

Stretched out at 7,545 yards in a possibly rain-filled weather, distance will be important as drives might not be able to roll out as much. Augusta National features the most state of the art sub-air system on tour so if any course can handle rain, this course will hold up. That said, with the course being wet, distance will be very important to get position off the tee.

SG: Approach is supreme at this event. While the fairways are some of the biggest players will see with no rough, players will still need to get in proper position to approach the tiered greens. Driving distance will play a role but players must keep the ball in play. Leaving yourself on the wrong tier of these firm and fast Bermuda greens can and will lead to big trouble.

Speaking of the greens, the creativity and experience required to master the green complexes are immense. Players with plenty of experience with these green complexes will know where to land pitches and the best places to leave opportunities. Further, without rough, players will need to get creative around the greens to save par. We will need to factor some form of short game statistic or combo of statistics in our model.

SG: Par 5 will be very important as the four holes are the easiest on the course. Players must take advantage of make birdies throughout the week as the Par 4’s are very challenging and very, very long.

Amen Corner will be tricky, as ever, but should be a little more tame if winds aren’t a concern. That said, we have seen 11, 12, and 13 ruin the hopes and dreams of players over the years. Players that can survive these three holes can make a run into the weekend.

We will be considering, SG: Approach, SG: OTT, driving distance, SG: Putting (fast greens), SG: ARG, and Par 5 scoring. Let’s take a look at some golfers to consider ahead of making our betting card.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Scottie Scheffer +700

I am getting tired of watching Scottie Scheffler wiping the floor with fields when I refuse to bet the top of the board. I don’t know what I am going to do with Scottie this year but I cannot ignore him.

He makes sense as a one-and-done play at this point if you have not gained any money in your bank from Scottie thus far. With a monstrous prize pool, there is no point in saving anyone anymore. I am so very far behind that make no mistake, I need to win. With many players already using Scottie, maybe his ownership will be suppressed? I don’t know.

As far as betting, do we more confidence in anyone else at this point? Scottie showed last year at Augusta that he can handle getting up-and-down and has all of the other necessary tools to compete and potential dominate the field. While everyone continues to pine for a Rory victory and bet people down the board, maybe it is time to just push our chips in on World’s #1.

Xander Schauffele +2200

Xander Schauffele has a wonderful history at Augusta National despite missing the cut in 2022. With a pair of top-five finishes, Xander is well-rounded enough to handle the demands at The Masters.

Schauffele also features betting odds that are a bit more palpable than those at the top of the board. Starting your card with Xander might not be advisable but if you want your card to be a bit more expensive this year, you can pair Xander with another top-notch player.

Xanders is coming off of a decent showing at the Matchplay and a Top 20 at The Players. With a couple of near wins at this event, I think this could be the year Xander breaks through.

Cameron Young +3000

Finally, another tournament, another potential bet on Cam Young. Why?

A great showing at the Matchplay has our young gun coming to this event in good form. Further, with the weather potentially being very wet, Augusta National will be playing even longer than planned. Young continues impress off-the-tee, ranking 4th in SG: OTT over his last 50 rounds. He ranks third in driving distance over the same sample.

I am not sure Young will be very popular in OAD. He might be sneaky but potentially too sneaky. We will keep our eyes peeled for better odds’ offerings throughout the week.

Justin Rose +6600

While I am not so sure I want to travel too far down the odds board, Justin Rose has found some of his best form this season and has plenty of experience contending at Augusta National over the years. A solid bet as a FRL each year, Rose’s irons could be dialed in to find the best places to leave himself on these tricky, undulating greens.

For me, golfers with longer odds than 40-1 have an uphill climb to wear the green jacket the way this season has gone on Tour. That said, if we want to mix in a few longer shots, we should consider golfers with plenty of solid course history.

He is not a OAD consideration but maybe a small bet at the bottom of our card.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images