2024 The Open Championship Forecast and Projections
We’re teeing off for The Open Championship this week at Royal Troon Golf Club, and as expected, winds and rain will be a persistent challenge to golfers.
As usual in my golf weather forecasts, we’re focusing more on wind than rain. While rain can halt play if it’s heavy enough, it also helps soften and slow the course, which helps as much as it hurts. With wind, there’s no helpful side; it’s all negative impact. And the impact can lead to dramatic differences in scoring. My goal is always to try to highlight the time frame with the lightest winds and the time frame with the strongest winds to see if there’s a cumulative advantage for one wave over another. You can then use this to your advantage when making your picks on DFS sites and sportsbooks.
The Open Weather Forecast
Thursday, July 18th
Early morning winds will come in around 10 mph sustained, but that will quickly climb by the mid-morning to a 15 mph sustained wind with gusts around 25 mph. We essentially stay in that same range through the late morning and afternoon, with a potential slight decrease in winds in the very late afternoon. Scattered showers are possible at any time.
Friday, July 19th
Starting off Friday with winds a hair under 10 mph early, gradually increasing to 15 mph sustained winds by noon. Winds keep climbing in the afternoon, likely sustained 15-20 mph, gusting near 30 mph. Scattered showers are possible at any point.
Saturday, July 20th
Winds look decent enough early, with 5-10 mph sustained winds. By the afternoon, we should see 15 mph sustained winds with gusts around 20 mph. Scattered showers are possible at any point.
Sunday, July 21st
We’re closing it out with another day of “manageably breezy” conditions. Winds are lighter in the morning, peaking in the afternoon at 15 mph sustained winds, with gusts around 20 mph.
The Open Weather Thoughts
As of now, I don’t see any way to avoid the breezy conditions on Thursday. It’s fairly uniformly windy all day long except very early or very late. With no edge to be found on Day 1, I prefer to just take what we can on Day 2, as there looks to be an edge for early golfers on Friday as compared to the afternoon wave. That puts me on a Thursday PM / Friday AM build, though I don’t think it’s a massive “make or break” kind of edge.
Both weekend days should be slightly easier early in the day as opposed to late. One fairly important note is the “scattered showers possible at any point” thing… often times, when the rain moves in, the wind picks up as well, and I don’t have any real confidence in tracking that rain (partly due to a lack of high-res forecast models in the UK), which means the wind forecast isn’t as solid as you may have come to expect in these write-ups.
For the latest info as The Open Championship forecast changes, stay tuned to @KevinRothWx on Twitter or check my main forecast page.
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