2023 The Players Championship Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:54:55

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Players Championship. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

After a highly competitive Sunday to close the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Kurt Kitayama hoisted the trophy and dawned the red sweater after holding off some of the biggest superstars on the PGA tour. Players will receive no rest as the tour has a date with TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship.

Cameron Smith will not be in attendance to defend his title but the game’s best will certainly be there to vie for one of the biggest prizes of the tour season. The new schedule continues to attract excellent fields and this will be no different in Florida. We will start with betting odds and a look at the course and relevant statistics prior to keeping an eye on a few golfers for this week’s event.

The Players Championship Betting Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 6th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Players Championship:

• 2022 – Cameron Smith (-13)
• 2021 – Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019 – Rory McIlroy (-16)
• 2018 – Webb Simpson (-18)
• 2017 – Si Woo Kim (-10)
• 2016 – Jason Day (-15)
• 2015 – Rickie Fowler (-12)

144 players will tee it up on Thursday hoping to survive TPC Sawgrass and the various nuances the course offers the best players in the world. The top 65 players and ties will play on the weekend. Last season, when Cameron Smith putt the lights out on Sunday, the weather disrupted the tournament for days and finding players on the proper side of the weather proved fruitful for those playing DFS contests.

The field is notably missing several players that played last season because of the LIV exodus. No Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, or Brooks Koepka will surely feel a bit weird throughout the weekend as the PGA looks to keep building new stars to replace the older guard. However, the field is still loaded with an abundance of the top players in the world that are all currently in great form. Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa and several others will play coming off of big wins and recent excellent form. Rory threatened to win the API before Kurt Kitayama held on for his first breakthrough on tour.

Tiger Woods will bypass the Players presumably to remain healthy for major season. Several past winners remain in the field with Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler all playing this week. Fowler missed this tournament last season due to his struggles but has recently regained some old form. A return to the top of a leaderboard would be very welcome for Fowler as a big fan favorite.

Let’s take a look at the course and some notable metrics we should consider for our betting purposes this weekend.

2023 The Players Championship Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Sawgrass
• Date: March 9-12
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,189
• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda

The Players Championship is famous for its most iconic hole — the Par 3 17th. You will see more golf shots from this hole over the course of the weekend as no other golf swing will be as crucial to a player’s chance of winning this tournament than the four swings (hopefully) that they make on this hole. Players will miss this green short and long, balls will bounce off the edge, hearts will sink, and we will be offered moments of jubilation. Last season, Shane Lowry ignited the crowd with an ace on 17. Players will think about this hole the entire week and for good reason.

As for the rest of the course, Sawgrass is short for PGA standards considering it is a Par 72. There are five tough holes in the 450-500 yard Par 4 buckets but five par fives to offer ample opportunities at birdie or better. The short 11th at around 300 yards yields more than 25% birdies.

Enough of the easy, however, the Pete Dye-design features 17 of the 18 holes with water hazards. The course’s additional defense comes from wind which seems to be available at every edition of this event. The weather clobbered this event last season. Despite the straightforward nature of the course, the variance that comes with wind and water makes anyone in play for a missed cut.

Distance is not that important here and we will see many players club down hoping to find fairways. The rough will not be as treacherous as Bay Hill but players still need to find the short grass to dial in their approach shots to some of the largest greens on tour. Putting and short game will play a factor as players will not have the deep, long rough to work out of at this course. Instead, much of the greens feature mown runoff areas that will test the decision-making process.

So, we will prioritize SG:Approach, as usual, as well as fairways, P4 450-500, Par 5 scoring, putting, and bogey avoidance. Assuming the weather is a factor, scrambling for pars will be crucial. I am not too worried about course history as many players, some that have won, at this event have a missed cut.

Let’s target a few golfers.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Rory McIlroy +900

Nearly winning the API, Rory is in phenomenal form at an event that is on every superstar’s calendar. A former winner, Rory has all the tools required to be successful at TPC Sawgrass. His accurate and long driving, his approach game, and his creativity will all come in handy this weekend.

I find it difficult to pull the trigger on a golfer this high on the board but will surely consider Rory in matchups and one-and-done. At this rate, the prize pool is so big that we should be looking to use a superstar of Rory’s caliber here.

Justin Thomas +1800

Only four players have made the cut in five consecutive trips to TPC Sawgrass. Amongst those made cuts was a victory for Justin Thomas three years ago. Last year, Thomas was one of the only players to successfully navigate the brutal weather conditions at The Players before fizzling on the weekend.

Thomas put together a good performance at the API before falling apart on Sunday. He ranks sixth in this field in T2G over his last 50 rounds but first around-the-green. This level of creativity will prove helpful with all of the run-off areas that are mown short at TPC Sawgrass. At 18-1, we could potentially start our card with two players at this range in favor of putting plenty of money on Rory up top.

Sungjae Im +3300

A Florida favorite, Sungjae checks in closer to our value range at a course where he should fare well. Im ranks 13th in total strokes gained over his last 36 rounds and sits inside the top 20 in several categories including both ball-striking and off-the-tee.

For one-and-done, Im has been used plenty since he plays nearly ever week and is sometimes one of the top players available. If you are desperately chasing like myself after a missed cut last week, Im offers a contrarian option that has a resume filled with success on Bermuda greens in Florida.

Keegan Bradley +5000

Another answer to our trivia question from above regarding players to make their last five cuts here would also apply to Keegan Bradley. Only Keegan Bradley, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, and Daniel Berger are five-for-five over the last five tournaments at TPC Sawgrass. While an outright bet might be a stretch, we are getting a decent price for a guy who’s entire golf game is centered on approaching greens.

Keegan needs to putt so I am not sure I can get here in one-and-done. He would certainly be completely overlooked if you are that desperate. However, he will likely be a more popular DFS play for salary reasons instead of a betting option. I don’t mind adding him as a value or ladder player on my betting card. Depending on the draw, we might consider Keegan as a FRL bet.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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