The Reid Option: Week 13

Each week, Sammy Reid will break down each position in detail, pinpointing his favorite plays at various salary ranges. Who should we be focusing our core on this week? Read below to find out!

Week 13

Last week, you may have noticed The Reid Option was written in a more free-form style looking at the position groups as a whole, as opposed to the usual format of individual player breakdowns. Several people hit me up to let me know that they preferred the way I did it last week, saying it flowed better. There was also someone in the comments who didn’t like it as much – as Garth Algar said in Wayne’s World, “we fear change!”

When I look at the format of the column, there’s a little bit of a give-and-take. Writing up the positions in a free-form style lets me talk a little bit more about lineup construction and get to more players, but on the flip side, I don’t delve as deep into each individual player.

The one issue I’ve had with the normal way I’ve written this column is that things change between Thursday and Sunday. There have definitely been times where I wrote up a “high exposure” player, only to end up with far less of him by the time Sunday rolls around – the reality is that one value play opening up can change lineup construction in a major way. There have also been times that I wrote up a guy as a “GPP play”, and I ended up liking him so much that he made it into a lot of my cash lineups on Sunday. That’s a normal thing in DFS, but there’s something that doesn’t sit right with me if I go away from something that I wrote in this column.

So here’s what we’re going to do: I’m going to write this week up in the free-form style I did last week, and I want you guys to drop into the comments and let me know what you prefer. I take the choice and I give it back to you … the people!

(As always, all odds listed are accurate at time of writing, and may shift throughout the week. The Reid Option focuses exclusively on the main slate.)

QUARTERBACK

Who you play at QB this week is really going to depend on value that does or does not open up at WR and RB. Patrick Mahomes should be a GPP target, but I think he’s too priced up to play in cash games. All things being equal, I think our main cash target is going to be Cam Newton, a man who gets to face a Bucs pass defense who’s talent I believe in as much as the president believes in climate change. They’ve allowed 7.6 net yards per pass attempt – the second-worst figure in the league behind the Raiders – and 26 passing scores, the most of any team. And of course, Cam comes equipped with the highest built-in rushing floor of any QB this side of Lamar Jackson, making him an ideal cash game target.

In the 1984 film The NeverEnding Story, Atreyu and his horse Artrax attempt to traverse through the Swamp of Sadness, only to have Artax become stuck in the bog. As Atreyu tries to pull him out, Artax succumbs to the sadness and lets himself sink and die without putting up a fight . Every time I watch the Detroit Lions play, I think of how much they are like Artax, and their 2018 season the Swamp of Sadness. As such, Jared Goff is a dude I’ll definitely have exposure to in GPPs.

If we’re forced to go cheaper at QB because values like Chris Conley or Chris Godwin don’t open up, Matt Ryan is a play on Draftkings I don’t mind at all for $5600. Sure, Baltimore is good at pass defense, but A) Ryan has averaged 348.3 yards per game at home this season and 302.5 per home game since 2016, and B) #DefenseDoesn’tMatter. I think he puts up 20 DK points here in his sleep and is fully cash viable. I’m also feeling Kirk Cousins at this price point – I think the Vikings/Pats game has sneaky shootout potential, with the Pats averaging 33.4 points scored over the past 10 home games and the Vikings trotting out the best WR tandem this side of Pittsburgh. I’ll have several stacks from this game and from the Vikings side in particular, since their passing distribution is so narrow.

RUNNING BACK

How you choose to approach the RB position will likely determine your fate this week. Looking through the options on this slate is like pulling into a Taco Bell drive thru at 2am with $5 in your pocket; everything looks amazing, but you can only get a couple things. So how should we do it? Obviously available value elsewhere – particularly at the WR position – will determine our ideal course of action, but my initial view of the position is that I want two higher-priced studs and one value guy.

The first guy I’m locking into my lineups is Saquon Barkley, who’s price tag is more perplexing than an Ikea assembly manual. The dude is Top 3 in Scott Barrett’s Actual Opportunity metric and has as many receptions as Christian McCaffrey with a lot more rushing work. He’s faster than a Cheetah on angel dust, tougher than Davis Mattek’s Thanksgiving turkey, and more elusive than the meaning of life. How he’s under $8K on DK I’ll never know, but I can assure you that Chicago’s defense is not going to deter me here, not even for a second.

There are several other great options up top – Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey are obvious smash plays, and I’ll tend to lean toward Gurley on DK and CMC on FanDuel. It seems a little counter-intuitive because of the scoring structures, but their prices are more disparate on FanDuel, so I’m more willing to take the value there. I’ll also have a lot of Kareem Hunt in GPPs – his usage isn’t quite in the realm of the other guys (18.8 touches per game), but his TD equity is bulbous in this spot against Oakland, where the Chiefs are a 15-point favorite and have an insane 35.3-point implied team total.Editor Note – Kareem Hunt has been released by the Kansas City Chiefs. Spencer Ware will take over as the lead back for KC

The value at RB is where is gets really interesting. A lot of people are going to be attracted to Carlos Hyde since he’s $3300 on DK and $5000 on FanDuel, but he doesn’t really do it for me. Jacksonville is #bad and he’ll cede passing work to T.J. Yeldon; basically I think he needs to find paydirt to be worth it, and I don’t really see a need to take that chance consider the other options available to us. In all formats, I’d honestly rather have Peyton Barber – a man who’s averaged 16.3 touches per game since the team’s Week 5 bye – at a similar price point, because I think he sees more touches and is on a better offense. I’ll probably also give the #nahwave to Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins on the other side of this game if Marlon Mack misses; I think they probably share time and are in a tough-ish spot on the road in Jacksonville. They’re not bad plays per se, but in the context of the slate I don’t think they make a ton of sense.

A huge reason why they don’t is that Lamar Miller is just $4600 on Draftkings. He has a majority share of the touches on his team (68% of the snaps and 63.2% of the backfield touches in the games that he’s played) and the Texans are 6-point home favorites against a Browns D that is bottom-7 in basically every rush defense metric known to man.

And that brings us to my favorite running back play of the week, price considered. Cue the tunes, George Thorogood. Because this week, I’m “jamming in Aaron Jones

The day the slate came out
The sharps all gathered ‘round
And they gazed in wide wonder
At the value they’d found
The dumb fish spoke up
He said, “you gotta play Cohen”
But I could tell right away
I was jammin’ in Jones

Jammin’ in Jones
Jammin’ in Jones
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
Jammin’ in Jones

I threw a thousand darts
Before I saw you
I’ll throw a thousand more, Aaron
Before I am through

I wanna take first in the Milly Maker
Soar from poor to throne
I’m here to make that money
By jammin’ in Jones
Jammin’ in Jones
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
Jammin’ in Jones

I’ll make a good player unreg
I’ll make a bad player kneel
I’ll make a loud player hush
I’ll make a fish player my meal
I wanna smash the Milly Maker
Soar from poor to throne
I’m here to tell you, fishy
That I’m jammin’ in Jones

J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
Jammin’ in Jones

When I tweet the tweets
My followers abide
Everyone who plays Jones
Will be satisfied
I wanna tell you fishy baby
This is the week I own
I’m here to make that money
By jammin’ in Jones

Jammin’ in Jones
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
J-J-J-J-Jam
Whew! Jammin’ in Jones

WIDE RECEIVER

I wanna play Tyreek Hill worse than I’d like to go on a date with Bailey Brooke, but in both cases it’s probably not going to happen even though I’m sure it’s worth the money. Tournament shares are advised however, and really you can make a case for any of the high-priced WRs in GPPs. My favorite from a game theory perspective is Odell Beckham – not only is he fresh off busting as the chalk last week, he also serves as leverage off of Saquon, who should be insanely popular as an obvious mis-price. And the Bears pass defense isn’t as good as you think; they rush the passer well, but they’re in the bottom half of the league in terms of WR yardage and have actually allowed the most WR receptions in the NFL. That doesn’t mean they’re a bad defense, but they’re far from untouchable.

I have no issues using Kenny Golladay as my #1 WR if it means getting two of the elite RBs in tow. Since Marvin Jones Jr cashed out, Babytron has seen 29% of the team’s targets and leads the NFL with a 67% air yards share and 0.91 weighted opportunity rating. And with the Lions likely to have to throw a lot in this game, I’m expecting double-digit targets for a 2nd-tier price tag on both major sites. In the same tier, Emmanuel Sanders and Josh Gordon will be primary GPP targets for me. Over the past four weeks both are in the top 10 in air yards, and this week Gordon’s Pats have a 27.3-point implied team total while Sanders’ Broncos face a Cincy defense which has completely quit on life.

Where things get interesting are in the lower pricing tier, depending on the week’s injury news. If Sammy Watkins doesn’t suit up we’ll have Chris Conley, who went 7-74-2 on 8 targets in Week 11. We’ll also have a ton of snaps for Chris Godwin on the league’s passing yardage cheat code team if DeSean Jackson can’t go – I consider both of these guys priority value plays if injuries work out in their favor. I also continue to drive the bus for Josh Reynolds, who has 13 targets and 3 touchdowns in his past two starts filling in for Cooper Kupp. He hasn’t been given Kupp’s full target share in the time he’s filled in (13% to Kupp’s 22%), but we are getting a solid discount on from where Kupp would be priced. Because of his high touchdown equity but lower target share profile, I prefer Reynolds in GPPs, but I’ll use him as a cash game value if I have to. It’s also worth pointing out that Jarvis Landry is is just $5500 on FanDuel, and while he’s been a disappointment in terms of expectations, he still has a 19% target share and 0.44 WOPR in the three games since Hue Jackson was bounced, and that’ll play at that price.

TIGHT END

I’m going to stay #OnBrand here and lead with the cheapest possible viable TE, Matt LaCosse. LaCosse – or LaBosse, as Evan Silva recently dubbed him – is taking over for Reid Option favorite Jeff Heuermann, who succumbed to the IR under the weight of lofty expectations. Heuermann had been receiving 13% of the team’s targets (4.4 per game) and most importantly had 7 targets inside the 10-yard line, tied with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz for 2nd among all NFL tight ends. Basically what I’m saying is that Heuerman had a pretty good role and LaCosse should slide into it for the stone minimum.

Obviously, Eric Ebron is going to be the chalk here and I can’t shade it. The guy smashes touchdowns like Seth Rogan smashes bong rips and has a team-leading 22% target share in the games that Doyle has missed this season.

If you’re looking to pivot in GPPs at a similar price point, Jared Cook stands out as a strong play since Oakland will be down three scores from the opening kickoff and Cook is the only Raiders pass catcher who won’t be living under a bridge a year from now. Another primary GPP target of mine will be George Kittle, who disappointed many a DFS owner last week in terms of fantasy production, but still saw 13 targets and was 2nd among all NFL players with a 0.84 WOPR.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

I can’t for the life of me figure out why the Rams DST is just $2600 on DK and $4100 on FanDuel; they lead the NFL in pressure rate, are 10-point favorites, and are playing against Matt Stafford – a man who has regressed into a blue-uniformed Derek Carr. I’m also quite into the Packers at a few hundred more – they are massive 15-point home favorites and the Cardinals have allowed 2.7 sacks and 2.0 turnovers per game to the opposition.

If you’re looking for a contrarian twist in GPPs, get at the Chiefs DST against Oakland instead of rostering their skill position players. The Raiders are allowing the sixth-highest adjusted sack rate in football are are the biggest underdog of the week (+15). Most people who play them will stack them up with Kareem Hunt, but if you really wanna get weird, lock Tyreek Hill in there for double punt-return TD love.

That’s it for this week y’all. Again, please let me know what you think of this format in the comments – that will decide our format moving forward.

Thanks for reading, everyone! Let’s go make some money in Week 13.

About the Author

  • Sammy Reid (SammyReid)

  • Sammy is a former online poker professional and Hearts champion who has been playing competitive fantasy sports for more than 15 years. A student of both sports and game theory, Sammy has been grinding DFS cash games since 2013. You can find more of his work in the 2017 edition of Joe Pisapia’s Fantasy Black Book, at FantasyInsiders.com, RosterCoach.com, and the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast.

Comments

  • mike42

    I didn’t notice you changed formats.

  • bc8844

    Great stuff again Sammy. This format is perfect. The cliff noters probably prefer the other format but then again if you’re not reading the article all the way through you’re missing the beauty of it anyway. Time to jam in some Jones.

  • Clecavs

    I vote this way

  • freshgrind

    Sammy , Go with the new format. It seems more you. It’s all good though , nothing that you write is DRY and CRUSTY , like a lot of the stuff out there. It seems as time goes on I find myself thinking more and more like you and Davis. SCARY THOUGHT ! Thanks Joe L.

  • tmauro1974

    Awesome ! My favorite read on here.

  • Sebigracie

    I’m going to have nightmares about quick sand…..thanks

  • skinnypost

    people believe in climate change?

  • srr50

    Love the format, it flows and it fits my style of taking in information

  • migthetig

    Only real egregious take here is Bailey Brooke…other than that nice work!

  • mewhitenoise

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    New format IMO. Always one of my favorite reads of the week.

  • Bluzman

    stick with this format

  • IAMDMS

    New format fo sho

  • Maddyb

    Hi Sammy,
    Great 👍 as always.

    Just be mindful on your stats against the bears- they are actually a phenomenal defence and a lot of the yardage they are giving up is late in the game.

    They have lead in the second half of every game and the D has seemed to score week after week which has caused them to be back on the field time and time again and tire the Defense- I believe they give up the most 4th quarter points.

    IMO this is sometimes where statistics can be overblown

  • kyastanley1

    Good article, always a great read. Need to edit out the Kareem Hunt part of article as of last night. Wow that is crazy news.

  • Phartman420

    Great read every week. This format works. Thanks

  • founts

    I would read your articles if you discussing quantum physics-best thing on RG!

  • boogereatingmoron

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2017 DraftKings NFL KOTB Finalist

    Great article Sammy. This format seems to give more depth into your process IMO. This flows better as an article.

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