The Sporer Report: 8/17 — 8/23
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| TOP 35 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | at OAK | Tue | He’s allowed more than 3 ER once in his last 14 starts: 1.30 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 132 Ks in 103.7 IP |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | at HOU | Sun | Has rebounded from the 6 IP/5 ER dud at PHI w/1 ER in 13 IP (plus 14 Ks) |
| 3 | Jake Arrieta | ATL | Fri | Shutout MIN on 6/21 and has been unreal since then: 1.23 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 69 Ks in 73.3 IP |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | at BAL | Tue | His K counts over the last six are excellent: 10, 8, 8, 7, 7, 10 |
| 5 | David Price | at LAA | Fri | Didn’t need a fourth time through the lineup Fri. v. NYY; still pitching brilliantly as a Blue Jay |
| 6 | Corey Kluber | at BOS | Wed | Now has three CGs in his L4 starts; that other start was a 5.7 IP/5 ER dud, but he’s so great when on |
| 7 | Chris Sale | at SEA | Fri | Back-to-back 7 ER nightmares sparked some fear, but he assuaged all worries w/7 one-hit IP v. CHC including 15 Ks |
| 8 | Michael Wacha | at SD | Sun | After a slow start, he has a 25% K rate since the start of June spanning 12 starts (77 Ks in 75 IP) |
| 9 | Madison Bumgarner | at PIT | Fri | Not many throwing better than him of late: 2.06 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 50 Ks in 39.3 IP incl. back-to-back CGs (1 ER in those) |
| 10 | Dallas Keuchel | TB | Wed | Allowed 5 ER at KC on 7/26; has allowed 6 ER in three starts since then |
| 11 | Johnny Cueto | at BOS | Fri | Ks are down a little bit as a Royal, but that’s heavily influenced by a 2 K outing at DET since he only has three starts |
| 12 | Jon Lester | DET | Wed | Not getting love for his big season, including a really strong run of late: 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 63 Ks in 56.3 IP |
| 13 | Sonny Gray | TB | Sun | Back issue has given him a 10-day layoff, but he’s been excellent in his L4: 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 3.5 K:BB ratio in 32 IP |
| 14 | Gerrit Cole | ARI | Mon | Certainly not bad, but a little blah in three August starts: 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 19 Ks in 16.3 IP; he’ll be fine |
| 15 | Francisco Liriano | ARI | Tue | A little wobbly since the break (4.35 ERA), but still missing plenty of bats w/24 Ks in 20.7 IP over that time |
| 16 | Carlos Carrasco | at NYY | Fri | Can he avoid the implosion? Always seems to interrupt big runs w/a disaster outing (1.36 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in last 33 IP) |
| 17 | Chris Archer | at HOU | Thu | His highs are very high, but the lows are really low (four starts of 5+ ER); still has 3.52 ERA in 2H even w/7 ER at TEX |
| 18 | Carlos Martinez | at SD | Sat | A couple errors sunk his outing Sunday (5 IP/5 R, but only 1 ER); IP counts over L5: 8, 5, 5, 8, 5 |
| 19 | Gerrit Cole | SF | Sat | This is a Giants penalty as they’ve been baseball’s best offense v. RHP by wRC+ w/a 115 mark (LAD second at 113) |
| 20 | Scott Kazmir | TB | Mon | Even w/fewer Ks he’s remained dominant: 1.04 ERA & WHIP w/HOU |
| 21 | Sonny Gray | at BAL | Mon | BAL has been outta their minds since being no-hit (30 R in 3 games), but Gray can put an end to that |
| 22 | Noah Syndergaard | at BAL | Wed | A couple bad starts on the road inflate his ERA (5.01), but he still has a 24% K rate and 3.61 FIP away from Citi Field |
| 23 | Danny Salazar | at BOS | Mon | Last six starts: just 7 ER good for a 1.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 43 Ks in 42.7 IP; most importantly just 4 HRs allowed |
| 24 | Michael Wacha | SF | Mon | Another SF penalty here; I wouldn’t outright avoid Cole & Wacha v. them, but don’t force it if you have better options |
| 25 | John Lackey | at SD | Fri | He’s not a strikeout stud which mitigates his DFS value, but 12 straight QS is an impressive run (2.12 ERA in 85 IP) |
| 26 | Tyson Ross | ATL | Wed | Leads baseball w/23 starts of 3 or fewer ER; only 15 are QS, but at least he’s never getting blasted |
| 27 | James Shields | ATL | Tue | The surge in Ks this year has saved his DFS value |
| 28 | Francisco Liriano | SF | Sun | SF doesn’t smash lefties at the same clip as righties so it’s not as big of a penalty for Liriano |
| 29 | Danny Salazar | at NYY | Sat | A trip to the Bronx could be a little nerve-wracking w/his HR issues, but he’s been keeping the ball in the yard of late |
| 30 | Felix Hernadez | CWS | Fri | Now has four starts of 7+ ER, but those account for 52% of season ER so he’s still been excellent in his other 20 starts |
| 31 | Max Scherzer | at COL | Thu | Wasn’t going to list any of Scherzer, Strasburg, or Harvey (all at COL), but each could be a fun contrarian play… could be |
| 32 | Gio Gonzalez | MIL | Fri | Had allowed 8 ER in 8 starts (1.48 ERA) before a tough third inn. at SF snapped his run of big starts |
| 33 | Jaime Garcia | SF | Wed | Increase velo and a killer GB rate have made Garcia even better than normal in 74.3 IP this year |
| 34 | Jose Quintana | at LAA | Thu | He’s allowed more than 3 ER just twice in L15 starts: 3.06 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 100 IP |
| 35 | Hisashi Iwakuma | at TEX | Tue | No-no should make others notice how great he’s been over his L7 w/a 2.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 4.9 K:BB ratio in 51 IP |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Justin Verlander | TEX | Fri | Either excellent or awful: four starts of 5+ ER, 7 of 2 or fewer ER |
| 2 | Patrick Corbin | at CIN | Thu | Allowed 3 ER in 1.3 IP at WAS earlier this month, but has allowed 3 ER in 12.7 IP since then |
| 3 | Rubby de la Rosa | at CIN | Fri | Has a 2.54 ERA in six starts since the All-Star Break |
| 4 | Joe Ross | MIL | Sat | Two duds in a row, but likely just a byproduct of facing the two best team v. RHP on the road (at SF, at LAD) |
| 5 | Jimmy Nelson | at WAS | Fri | Last 10 starts: 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 58 Ks in 66.3 IP |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | MIN | Sun | The volatility is scary, but he’s only had one disaster since the break (4.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 27 Ks in 33.3 IP) |
| 7 | Taylor Jungmann | at WAS | Sat | Showed enough not to be worried by his first dud and he rebounded brilliantly (6.3 scoreless IP w/9 Ks) |
| 8 | Raisel Iglesias | ARI | Sun | Has been a different pitcher since the break: 3.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 34 Ks in 30.3 IP |
| 9 | Carlos Rodon | at SEA | Sat | It’s a dice-roll, but the upside is rich; ER over his last 6: 0, 7, 0, 8, 4, and 0 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | at MIA | Sun | This is definitely opponent-influenced, but Nola has shown enough in his first 5 starts to have some confidence |
| 11 | Andrew Heaney | CWS | Mon | We knew the 1.79 ERA thru his first 6 starts was too high a level for him and the regression hasn’t been devastating |
| 12 | Martin Perez | SEA | at DET | The 5.29 ERA is scary, but it’s very heavily influenced by a 1 IP/8 ER nightmare v. NYY; 3.16 ERA in other five starts |
| 13 | Nathan Eovaldi | MIN | Wed | Has allowed more than 3 ER once in his last 10 and getting great support (7-0 rec. in those 10; 12-2 for season) |
| 14 | Wily Peralta | MIA | Wed | Ks have been really lame this year (14%), but I’ll take a shot as an SP2 against MLB’s worst offense v. RHP |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
I changed this up a little bit to listing the offenses that are scary first and then naming the pitchers who could be in trouble against them. I didn’t list all pitchers facing them, but just those who you’d actually consider using at any point, whether it’s a stud or more of a value play. Let me know what you think of this change.
| POTENTIAL LANDMINES | ||
| RK | TEAM | PITCHERS IN DANGER |
| 1 | SF V. RHP | Wacha, Lynn, Cole |
| 2 | LAD V. ALL | Kazmir |
| 3 | NYY V. ALL | Carrasco, Salazar, Gibson |
| 4 | TOR V. ALL | Richards, Santiago, Heaney, Nola |
| 5 | DET V. ALL | Lester, Hammel, Hamels |
| 6 | COL AT HOME | Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Harvey |
| 7 | ARI V. RHP | Cole, Iglesias |
| 8 | KC V. RHP | Iglesias |
| 9 | BAL AT HOME | Gray, deGrom, Syndergaard, Gibson |
| 10 | BOS AT HOME V. RHP | Kluber, Cueto, Salazar |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around. Comments come every other week since it usually takes more than a week to see any real changes in a pen.
| THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30 | |||
| RK | TEAM | LAST | KEY COMPONENTS |
| 1 | NYY | 1 | Miller, Betances, Shreve |
| 2 | KC | 2 | Holland, Davis, Madson |
| 3 | TOR | 4 | Osuna, Hawkins, Lowe |
| 4 | BAL | 5 | Britton, O’Day, Brach |
| 5 | HOU | 3 | Gregerson, Neshek, Sipp |
| 6 | LAD | 9 | Jansen, Howell, Baez |
| 7 | PIT | 7 | Melancon, Watson, Soria |
| 8 | CHC | 12 | Rondon, Strop, Motte |
| 9 | STL | 6 | Rosenthal, Siegrist, Cishek |
| 10 | MIL | 8 | K-Rod, Smith, Thornburg |
| 11 | CLE | 10 | Allen, Shaw, McAllister |
| 12 | SD | 13 | Kimbrel, Maurer, Benoit |
| 13 | WAS | 14 | Papelbon, Storen, Treinen |
| 14 | TB | 17 | Boxberger, McGee, Geltz |
| 15 | MIA | 11 | Ramos, Morris, Narveson |
| 16 | CWS | 16 | Robertson, Duke, Petricka |
| 17 | SF | 19 | Casilla, Strickland, Romo |
| 18 | TEX | 23 | Tolleson, Dyson, Diekman |
| 19 | PHI | 20 | Giles, De Fratus, Neris |
| 20 | NYM | 15 | Familia, Clippard, Torres |
| 21 | SEA | 18 | Smith, Wilhelmsen, Rodney |
| 22 | ATL | 27 | Vizcaino, Aardsma, Brigham |
| 23 | CIN | 24 | Chapman, Hoover, Diaz |
| 24 | LAA | 21 | Street, Smith, Gott |
| 25 | ARI | 22 | Ziegler, Hudson, Collmenter |
| 26 | OAK | 25 | Mujica, Rodriguez, Scribner |
| 27 | MIN | 29 | Perkins, Fien, Pressly |
| 28 | BOS | 26 | Machi, Tazawa, Ogando |
| 29 | DET | 30 | Wilson, Rondon, Alburquerque |
| 30 | COL | 28 | Kahnle, Axford, Betancourt |