The Top 10 Worst Ways to be "Bad Beat" in DFS
A bad beat is when you have a winning hand in cards and end up losing to an unlikely scenario. The more unlikely the scenario, the worse the bad beat. Bad beats also happen in Daily Fantasy Sports. For instance, MaxMadness recently posted about a bad beat he received at the hands of McJester.
While I doubt you’ll get much sympathy from McJester, who has likely seen every bad beat possible, it did get me thinking. What are the worst ways to get bad beat in DFS? In a Letterman-homage, here’s what I came up with.
To clarify, I consider a bad beat when you have a win mostly in hand and lose it. A player getting ejected in the second, a water main breaking, or other scenarios that require you imagining how the rest of the game would have played out don’t count.
10. The Unexpected Late Scratch – Basketball
I know, I know my last one skirts the line of my disclaimer but hear me out. You’re a few points out of first, with no one behind you in sight. You have one player left to play; they’re a starter, and they’ve been running hot. They don’t even need to play well. If they suit up for ten minutes and make two shots, you’re good. Then after the game starts, you find out that unexpectedly they can’t play. Even late swap wouldn’t have saved you!
9. The Intentional Safety – Football
It turns out the goal in many sports is not the same as the goal in DFS. While racking up stats usually correlates with success, there are times when avoiding scoring plays can be wise. A great example is if a team is up six points and near their end zone on fourth down. Obviously the other team is going to get the ball. A safety gives them better field positioning for the return kick. It also lets the team milk the clock as their player waits in the end zone. It makes perfect sense, giving the opponent two points doesn’t help them at all. They still need a touchdown to win, and they’ve just made that harder to accomplish. Of course, if you were counting on the opponent’s defense behind you to not gain any more points. Or your defense was one or two points out of a different tier. Regardless, a wise tactical move just cost you.
8. The 5th Inning Rainout – Baseball
Sometimes you can have an excellent collection of bats at a favorable stadium that is just too hard to pass up, like Coors Field. Sometimes, such a game can take place in a location with crazy weather, like Coors Field! But you take the gamble, and it pays off. Your bats go off in the first four innings. It’s the bottom of the fifth with two outs, and even if your guys do nothing else, your victory is assured. But then the tarp comes on the field. The game goes into a delay. And hours later your points are erased from history.
7. The Fumble/Interception Returned for a Touchdown – Football
Football has the most variance of all of the major fantasy sports. It’s got the fewest possessions per game, with huge point swings at stake. This scenario is particularly rough because it’s a complete game changer. For starters, the fumble/interception docks your offensive player. If you happened to have that team’s defense as well, there go more points. And finally, to all the people behind you that had the opposing defense? Well, get ready to get passed in the standings.
6. Caught Stealing/Offensive Collapse – Baseball
Baseball can be frustrating because it’s possible for even the best offensive players to put up negative scores on the major sites. Take DraftKings. Your batter just helped you by getting on base. They may even get a run and help you more. But what’s that? They decide to steal second and get thrown out. There go two points and your lead. On FanDuel, any out is counted as -0.25 points. If you have four plus batters left to play, it’s entirely possible for all of them to collapse and lose you multiple points. If just one of them gets a walk, your lead stays intact. But no! They all go down swinging, you drop two points and your first place vanishes.
5. The Blown Save – Baseball
Good work, your pitcher had a strong outing, seven innings, ten strikeouts, and only one earned run. They also got run support, so we go to the ninth with a five-run lead. It’s one out, and the current batter already has two strikes. But you know what’s coming. The runner gets on a base. Then another runner. Then another. Then the reliever gascans it up, and the guaranteed points for the win evaporate.
4. The Goalie Collapse – Hockey
It’s hard to lose points in hockey because even penalty minutes get rewarded. But there’s an important game changer that is downright painful. Your goalie is up 3-0 with five minutes to play. That’s guaranteed points for the win, and gravy if they hold off the offensive assault if the opponent pulls their goalie. But suddenly the puck gets by once. Then again. Then again. Your goalie experiences a six-point shift in the span of five minutes, and your lineup falls accordingly.
3. The Out of Nowhere Multi-Overtime – Basketball
The late games are winding down, and you have a commanding lead. Some people have some player left in that Lakers game, but they’re down ten points with four minutes to go. But then they get hot. They’re only down by five, then by three; then it’s tied. Uh-oh. We’re heading to overtime. And then it goes to another overtime. A bunch of lineups that looked dead a half hour ago now occupy the front page. Your once winning lineup has fallen, and all you can do is shake your head.
2. The Negative Kneel – Football
You chose the right quarterback. This game is all wrapped up. However, we pass the two-minute warning, and you notice your lead is by the thinnest of margins. And that’s when you realize you’re done. Your quarterback decides to kneel out the clock. He takes negative yardage for each kneel, and his score drops ever so slightly. But it’s enough to do you in. In basketball, he wouldn’t even be in the game. But this is football, and football can be cruel.
1. The Pinch Hitter – Baseball
Your lead is secure. Everyone on the front page is out of innings. Even on the second and third page, no one has anything. Someone has one inning remaining, but jokes on them, that player wasn’t in the lineup! But then it happens. A runner gets in scoring position. We reach a platoon situation or it’s the pitcher’s turn to bat. That batter that was out is going to get one shot to ruin your night. And, of course, they take it. Just like that, your lead is going, going, gone!
Those are the ten best ways I could think of to get bad beat in DFS. I’m sure there are others. I’m excited to hear what you come up with in the comments.