ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NBA Player Props February 3, 2023
Looking for a new way to play? NBA DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NBA Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Props GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NBA. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for February 3rd
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every night!
Kyle Kuzma, 8.5 Rebounds: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Kyle Kuzma has had a fairly good season, but I just don’t see him picking up 9 rebounds. He is sitting at 7.5 Rebounds on the sportsbooks and is roughly around -115 for the under. As an aside, with them having a full complement of weapons with Porzingis, Avdija, and Gafford also hitting the boards, there just aren’t enough to go around. With all those bodies and the odds combined, this feels like a slam dunk.
Pick: Under, 90 points
Damian Lillard, 5.5 Assists: Over, 80 points / Under, 120 points
Damian Lillard has been on an absolute HEATER over the past month. What has been overlooked is his ability to distribute the basketball. Not only has he been scoring at a ridiculous clip, but he is also averaging 7.6 assists over the last 30 days. Well, if you take a look at the sportsbooks, you will see that he is sitting at 7.5 assists and around -135 on the over. We are getting a really good total for the over here…and I’m pouncing.
Pick: Over, 80 points
Joel Embiid, 39.5 Points + Rebounds: Over, 70 points / Under, 130 points
Embiid is having another MVP-worthy season so far, and that won’t stop tonight. The Spurs have been awful inside, outside, and everywhere. Tonight, Joel Embiid will destroy this team inside, outside, and everywhere. He will most likely score over 30 points yet again and lead the charge for another checkmark in the win column. This is one of the best spots of the night, and I’m willing to take the dip in GPP points for the win.
Pick: Over, 70 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this specific tournament. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn