ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props AFC/NFC Championship Weekend
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Props GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for the AFC/NFC Championship
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In the AFC/NFC Championship we have teams that are going to lay it all on the line. I think we see one game with fireworks, and the other with a fierce defensive battle. Let’s dig in and see what nuggets we can find.
Isiah Pacheco, 48.5 Rush Yards + Receiving Yards: Over, 70 points / Under, 130 points
With Mahomes having the ankle injury, I think the Chiefs commit a little bit more to the run than usual. I still think the passing game will be the primary way to see the splash plays and pick up big chunks of yards, but Pacheco should pick up over 50 yards rushing just on his own. Adding in the option of a few passing yards is great for us, and I like this prop to go over. If he pops a big one, we may even see him go over in the first half.
Pick: Over, 70 points
Joe Mixon, 52.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
In a game where the fireworks should be on display, I also like both of these rushing attacks…but for different reasons. I think Mixon will pick up a lot of carries late because I’m expecting the Bengals to win this game and be up in the 4th quarter. The Kansas City defense is not great overall and is definitely not great against the run, so Mixon should be able to pick up a few chunk running plays throughout the four quarters of battle. I think Mixon is over this number in the 3rd quarter. This is my top prop of the week (even at elevated numbers across the industry).
Pick: Over, 100 points
Deebo Samuel, 3.5 Receptions: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
I expect the NFC championship game to have a lot less pizazz than the AFC championship, but I do think Deebo Samuel at 3.5 receptions is a touch too low here. He should be heavily involved in the game plan if San Francisco wants to emerge triumphant, and I’m sure they will lay it all on the line. If Deebo is rolling in this contest, we could easily see him pick up 4 receptions in one half of football. This one is a no-brainer.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn