ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Week 15
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 15 NFL Props
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 15, we have a handful of props that I feel VERY comfortable with. I’m going to focus on the Saturday slate where we have an edge this week. Let’s dig in.
Stefon Diggs, 82.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
We may as well just call this the weather article because all three props this week will come from the same game. We are starting with Diggs at 82.5 receiving yards. While I do feel like this prop is achievable I’m going to side with the weather here. It’s going to be cold, and snow will be on the ground. I expect the running game to be the focus here, and for that reason, I’m taking the under on the receiving yards today.
Pick: Under, 105 points
Josh Allen, 280.5 Passing Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Josh Allen is an amazing player and is as tough as they come, but I do think the injury to his arm has affected his output over the past few weeks. He’s barely thrown for 250 and now we are throwing a weather wrench into our plans. Just like every other passing game participant in this game, I am taking the under here and not thinking twice about it.
Pick: Under, 100 points
Tyreek Hill, 96.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Weather, weather, and more weather. This game has given us props goodness and I think we continue that trend here. Tyreek is sitting at what I feel is a pretty high number for a snowy and cold game. Under is in order yet again as I’m looking for more of a rushing attack from both sides. I do think Tyreek will catch a few passes, but I anticipate the deep ball will be limited, and that these teams are able to gang-tackle most of the game with snow on the field.
Pick: Under, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn