ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Week 17
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 17 NFL Props
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 17 we have a fairly tough board with what feels like an odd collection of props to select from. Let’s dig in and see what nuggets we can find.
Dalvin Cook, 80.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
Dalvin Cook has had yet another productive season, but as this team heads into Green Bay I’m expecting them to have to throw the ball around yet again. The Packers’ defense has been serviceable this season and I suspect they limit Dalvin in the run game just enough to keep him under our line of 80.5 here.
Pick: Under, 95 points
Keenan Allen, 62.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 80 points / Under, 120 points
Justin Herbert has been peppering Keenan Allen with targets and I don’t think we see anything different in this spot against the Rams. The volume game to game has been pushing Allen over his receiving yard props every week. He’s catching passes all over the field and we should continue to see the same results this week. Sign me up for one of the best props on the board.
Pick: Over, 80 points
Cam Akers, 1.5 Rush+Receiving TD’s: Over, 155 points / Under, 45 points
I don’t usually take these lower point props week to week, but this one feels too good. I don’t see Akers getting two touchdowns in this game against the Chargers. From time to time the Rams will just not play Akers and you can add that to the reasons why I don’t like Akers to pick up two touchdowns this week. The points are low, but they feel like a lock. I’m taking the money and running.
Pick: Under, 45 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn