ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Week 18
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 18 NFL Props
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 18 we have some teams playing for everything and some teams playing for nothing at all. It should be a wild finish to the NFL regular season. Let’s dig in and see what nuggets we can find.
Kenneth Walker, 71.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
The Seattle Seahawks need to win this game. They also need the Lions to beat the Packers. At any rate, Walker should be running hard yet again against a Rams team that has just been awful this season. He’s at home and will have the 12’s pushing this team to victory. The volume should be there and I see him clearing this number big time.
Pick: Over, 105 points
Terry McLaurin, 0.5 Receiving TDs: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
The Commanders have nothing to play for in this game and Dallas seemingly wants to play for it all. The Commanders play hard, but I’m not expecting this team to go out with a bang. I’m expecting them to get ready for a vacation. Avoiding injuries for their key players in a meaningless game for them should be the priority here. For that reason, I just don’t see Terry trotting into the endzone in this one.
Pick: Under, 85 points
Aaron Rodgers, 23.5 Completions: Over, 125 points / Under, 75 points
The Packers are going for the gusto here in this game. Win and you are in! While this is the case, we still haven’t seen Rodgers line up and throw it all game. It’s been a balanced attack, and we should see this yet again at Lambeau Field. Will the Packers win? Maybe, but I don’t think Rogders turns into to Tom Brady and throws all game.
Pick: Under, 75 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn