ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 1
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 1
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
Chris Godwin, 45.5 receiving yards: Over, 75 points / Under, 125 points
With the uncertainty surrounding his status for Week 1, I think this gives us the most bang for our buck. If he ends up not playing we get to utilize one of our ICE plays. If he does play, I think all signs point to him being limited. Being able to pick up 125 points in this contest is a HUGE deal, and I think this is where we get frisky early here.
Pick: Under, 125 points
Justin Herbert, 2.5 Pass TDs + INTs: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
I think the Raiders and Chargers will be the shootout of the week. As a result, Herbert feels like he will cruise over the 2.5 mark here. If you watched Thursday Night Football, you saw a blueprint for how I think this game could be. I’m expecting at least 1 INT apiece from both of these quarterbacks, and I’m also expecting the TD passes to be there. Herbert should have no trouble moving the ball and also gets Austin Ekeler as a short passing security blanket in the red zone. I think we take the over here for 105 points.
Pick: Over, 105 points
Joe Burrow, 292.5 Passing Yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
I love the Bengals to come out and win this football game. However, there will be some rain at points in the game, and I think 292.5 is a high number for Joe right out of the gate. Don’t get me wrong, I would not be surprised at all if he comes out and torches the Steelers for 300+ yards. But I think the likely outcome is under that number and projections tend to agree here. We are rolling with the under for 105 points on this one.
Pick: Under, 105 points
Jalen Hurts, 18.5 Completions: Over, 85 points / Under, 115 points
Unless the Detroit Lions have done some major improving over the last 30 years (and they haven’t by the way), I love Hurts to pick up plenty of completions in this game. At 18.5, our projections at RotoGrinders love the over here. And even if they didn’t, I still would! Hurts has plenty of weapons at his disposal in the passing game, which should open up tons of success for him. I’m taking the 85 points and running to the bank with the over on this one.
Pick: Over, 85 points
Lamar Jackson, 2.5 Passing TDs: Over, 130 points / Under, 70 points
I love Lamar, and I definitely think that he could have a big day against the Jets. I also think that he may not be needed by the end of this game to push the ball down the field. As a result, I’m leaning with the under here. This team likes to run the football anyways, and at 2.5 we are getting really good value. The under is also giving us 70 points, which feels really good for a “sure” thing.
Pick: Under, 70 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on 2nd place! Laugh a little folks!