ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 14
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 14
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 14, we have a handful of props that I feel VERY comfortable with. Let’s hop in.
Saquon Barkley, 82.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Barkley and the Giants are in for a tough time this week as they face the explosive Eagles offense. Barkely’s rushing yards have taken a dip over the past few weeks and I expect them to stay under this week as the Giants should be behind and need to pass the ball more down the stretch. If this game script comes together for us we are looking at yet another week where Barkley is under his rushing yard total. This is certainly a division game and should be a tough one, but the Eagles are clearly the better team here and I’m suspecting the game plan is to not allow Barkley to get off.
Pick: Under, 90 points
Mike Evans, 5.5 Receptions: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
Mike Evans has been one of the most consistent receivers in the league since his arrival, but in this offense, he rarely catches 6 passes. That role is reserved for Chris Godwin. What Evans will do is rack up touchdowns and make big plays down the field. As a result I love the under on this prop. San Francisco’s defense will be a tall order for this middle to bottom of the league offense and these 2 things combined should yield us good results on the under.
Pick: Under, 85 points
Justin Herbert, 255.5 Passing Yards: Over, 80 points / Under, 120 points
The Chargers are going to be in a track meet this week with the Miami Dolphins coming into town. One thing to note is that the Dolphins did not leave the west coast and stayed all week. They should be well rested and ready to win. As a result the Chargers will have to pass to keep up in this game (they don’t really want to run the ball anyway). At this number Herbert is too low, and feels like a slam dunk to hit for us this week.
Pick: Over, 80 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn