ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 4
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 4
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 3, I feel like every selection is putting us at or near the 100 point total. This is the formula to take down this tournament. The more plays that you feel confident in that can get you 100 or more, the better our chances. Let’s get ready to win!
Jalen Hurts, 302.5 Pass Yards + Rush Yards: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
Jalen Hurts has been leading his team to victory every week so far. While I think this week is a tougher matchup than he’s faced all year, I don’t see him slowing down. The weapons at his disposal will help to keep the passing yards moving forward every week, and his legs will do the rest. I think Jacksonville makes this competitive enough for him to “have” to play the whole game and keep the stats over that 302.5 mark that we need.
Pick: Over, 105 points
CeeDee Lamb, 60.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Ceedee is just getting too many targets on a weekly basis at this point. Gallup has practiced in full this week, so I expect him to be back in the fold. This does not change my stance one bit on Lamb with his market share and should be able to get there on volume alone.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Aaron Jones, 47.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 80 points / Under, 120 points
Jones has been very involved in the offense to begin the season. He has gone over this rushing number 2 out of the 3 games that they have played so far. What I like are the carries that correspond to the rushing numbers. He had 15 week 2 and 12 week 3. If these numbers stay where they are I see no reason why he should go over the 47.5 yard mark.
Pick: Over, 80 points
Juju Smith-Schuster, 42.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 75 points / Under, 125 points
Juju has integrated himself into the offense really well outside of one game this season where he was non existent. In the other 2 he was well over this total. This is a very low number for a guy that is on the field roughly 70% of the time with almost a 20% target share. He is only behind Kelce in this area who sits at 22%. The targets should be there in this matchup and should translate to the yardage that we need.
Pick: Over, 75 points
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!