Thunder vs. Heat: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Thunder vs. Heat Odds
| Thunder Odds | +2 |
| Heat Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 222 |
| Date | Tue, Jan. 10 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
On Tuesday, TNT’s NBA double-header will begin with a matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the short-handed Miami Heat at FTX Arena. Ahead of tip-off, Miami has ruled out Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry, leaving them with only one of their top-four scorers. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are anticipating a Heat victory in this spot, pricing Miami as 2-point home favorites on the spread.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Competitive youth movement
Oklahoma City’s top-four scorers this season are all 24 years or younger, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being the elder of that group. Nevertheless, this roster, which has only two players over the age of 25, remains within two games in the loss column of the final play-in position in the Western Conference standings. Entering play on Tuesday, the Thunder rank 11th in the NBA this season in defensive efficiency, allowing only 112.2 points per 100 possessions.
Road woes
Yet, like many young teams, Oklahoma City has struggled to find a winning formula on the road – winning only five of eighteen games played outside of their home building. On the road, this group regresses to 26th in offensive efficiency, scoring only 109.1 points per 100 possessions, and their defense has been slightly worse as well.
Miami Heat
Offense missing top playmakers
Per Cleaning the Glass, in 306 possessions with Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry off of the floor, Miami ranks in only the 3rd percentile in offensive efficiency. Missing four starters, including Caleb Martin, the Heat will be without three of their top-four scoring threats, three of their top-five facilitators, and three of their top-four players in terms of three-point attempts per game. Putting the ball in the basket is likely to be a challenge for this group against a capable Oklahoma City defense.
Back to the fundamentals
During the 2020-2021 campaign, Miami finished with the second-highest opponent turnover rate. Last season, this unit finished third in opponent turnover rate. Through 41 games to begin 2022-2023, the Heat are once again among the best in the league at forcing opponents into empty possessions, with only the Toronto Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder forcing more turnovers per game.
Though Miami will be without multiple recognizable names in this matchup, they are likely to remain competitive on the defensive end of the floor. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat rank in the 77th percentile this season in defensive efficiency when Adebayo, Herro, and Lowry are on the sidelines at the same time.
Thunder vs. Heat – Picks & Predictions
Though this game lacks much of the luster that the schedule-makers likely anticipated during the preseason, the contest has not been completely stripped of its betting value. The intuitive play is to take the Oklahoma City Thunder, the healthier team, to pull off a road upset on national television. However, Oklahoma City has suffered road losses in recent weeks to the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets – two teams that are, arguably, not much better than this evening’s version of the Miami Heat. Playing at home, with Jimmy Butler active, expect Miami to do just enough to get the job done.
PICK: Heat ML (-127, BetRivers)
Image Credit: Imagn