Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, and Prediction
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | +10 |
| Nuggets Odds | -10 |
| Over/Under | 237 |
| Date | Wed, Jan. 18 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Denver Nuggets will play at Ball Arena. Entering play, the Timberwolves (22-23) own the ninth-best record in the Western Conference, trailing the conference-leading Nuggets by 9.5 games in the standings. Tonight, oddsmakers are anticipating a comfortable victory for Denver, pricing the Nuggets as 10-point home favorites on the spread.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns, Gobert OUT
Karl-Anthony Towns last played on November 28 and remains out for this evening’s contest in Denver. Since he last played Minnesota is 12-12, ranking 15th out of 30 teams in Net Rating – a paragon of mediocrity.
On Wednesday, Gobert, nursing a right groin injury, will join Towns on the bench. Per Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota ranks in the 93rd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 20th percentile in defensive efficiency this season when both Gobert and Towns are off of the floor.
Who will step up for Minnesota?
There is no clear beneficiary in the Minnesota offensive attack when the team is missing two of its stars. In these situations, Edwards sees an insignificant +0.5% increase in usage and a slight increase in scoring. Per 36 minutes, Edwards is averaging 27.2 points this year with Towns and Gobert on the bench.
Denver Nuggets
Jokic making a case for another MVP
Last night, Nikola Jokic finished with 36 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in a win over the Portland Trail Blazers. It was his second consecutive triple-double at home and his fourth in the last five games. On the season, he is averaging a triple-double in his home arena – 25.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.9 assists.
Playing on zero days of rest this year, Jokic ranks in the 97th percentile in usage and the 100th percentile in assists. Facing a Minnesota frontcourt that is decimated by injury, Jokic is likely to have another strong performance.
Dominant at home
After yesterday’s victory, the Nuggets own sole possession of the best home record in the NBA, at 20-3. Since December 7, Denver is a perfect 14-0 at Ball Arena, outscoring their opponents by 11.8 points per 100 possessions.
In that span, they have notable wins against the Trail Blazers (twice), Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Clippers, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, and Memphis Grizzlies. Against those teams, they have five victories by double-digits, in addition to last night’s win by nine points. The Nuggets are not simply beating teams on their home court, they are running them out of the building.
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets – Picks & Predictions
Playing at home this season, Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double. Yet, sportsbooks continue to list his triple-double prop at significant plus-money, even after achieving the statistical milestone in four of his last five home games, with the one outlier seeing him fall only one assist short.
Tonight, Minnesota will be down each of their top two frontcourt players. As a result, the 6’9’’ Kyle Anderson and 6’9’’ Naz Reid are likely to see the vast majority of the defensive coverage on the 6’11’’ Jokic. Expect the Joker to use his significant size advantage to once again put together an impressive display of counting stats – make sportsbooks pay for continuing to price a probable outcome at plus-money.
PICK: Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (+150, DraftKings)
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