Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Titans vs. Packers
Sunday Night Football is in for some wintry weather as the Packers welcome the Titans to Lambeau Field. The Packers can clinch a first-round bye depending on what happens in the afternoon. The Titans can clinch the AFC South with a win if the Colts lose in the afternoon. In any event, both teams will be motivated to improve their seeding in the snowy confines of Lambeau Field. Here’s a sports betting breakdown with some Sunday Night Football betting picks for tonight’s game.
[Bet Over 53.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook]
Sunday Night Football Odds
The Packers opened as 4.5-point favorites with 58% of spread action (per ScoresandOdds.com) move the line towards the current -3 number. The game total opened around 56 points across online betting sites but has been bet down likely due to projected weather conditions. Betting trends for the Titans suggest that we should see plenty of points in this contest. Did projected weather open up an opportunity for bettors?
What’s the Scenario?
So, what, so, what’s the NFL playoff scenario? Both the Packers and Titans will be motivated — potentially highly motivated — to earn a victory on Sunday night. Let’s start with the Packers. Given this season’s playoff format, the Packers are vying for the only bye available in the NFC. The Packers clinch that bye with a win if Seattle loses to the Rams in the Sunday afternoon window. With that game, nearly a pick’em, the Packers will know if tonight’s game presents an opportunity to clinch a meaningless Week 17.
For the Titans, things are a bit more muddled. The Titans will clinch a playoff berth with a victory regardless of additional circumstances. However, if the Colts lose to the Steelers on Sunday afternoon, a win would clinch the AFC South. Both teams might be fighting for a pivotal clinching scenario on Sunday night.
DHember Weather
The weather looks to be snowy, cold, and blustery. At the time of this writing, the weather projects for snowfall before the game and a bit during. Winds could gust around 25 miles per hour and temperatures will be very cold. Individually, to summarize RotoGrinders’ weather expert, Kevin Roth, all of these parts individually shouldn’t impact much. Yet, together, they could have an impact on offense.
Impact offense in December? According to Swolecast host David Kitchen, this weather will only invigorate the Titans’ DHember offense. The plan, feed the big dog. The Titans average about 32 rushing attempts per game this season and will certainly aim for more in brutal conditions. Derrick Henry has better than a 100-yard rushing advantage on Dalvin Cook for this season’s rushing title with Cook having played already. Henry could all but lock the rushing title in this week with an average rushing performance. He is going to be expensive, but Derrick Henry at the captain spot in your DFS builds tonight might not be as popular as usual given the plethora of options between the two teams.
Per RotoGrinders’ GridironIQ the Packers biggest leak on the defensive end is against the running game. The 28.65 fantasy points allowed per game to the position is fifth-worst in the league. Further, 51.1% of runs against the Packers are classified as successful by Sports Info Solutions. We know what the Titans want to do. Fill up the Big Dog’s plate and watch him eat all night. A healthy dose of Henry should help one of the league’s worst defenses stay off the field. Will it work?
All of the Offense
Speaking of offense, while the Titans lead the league in scoring offense, the Packers sit just behind the Titans and Chiefs with 31 points per game on offense. Sitting second in yards per play (6.2), the Packers sit in the top ten of most offensive categories in the NFL. The well-oiled machine will face a Titans’ defense that, well, is not equipped to slow the Packers down. The Titans are in the bottom half of the league in scoring and total defense — allowing a ton of efficiency from opposing passing attacks. Per Sports Info Solutions, 52.01% of passing plays from opponents are classified as successful — the second-worst in the league. Further, the Titans are the worst defense on third down in the league. Opposing offenses convert third downs at an alarm 52.58% clip. Derrick Henry should take his sweet time with all of his big runs — this Tennessee defense is not going to stop Aaron Rodgers and company.
Titans vs. Packers Picks
The weather seems to have moved the total into a more favorable spot for the bet I want to make. Given Kevin Roth’s forecast, the wintry elements don’t seem to be alarming enough to worry about two offenses that are wildly efficient. Given the stakes of the game and the inefficacy of the Titans’ defense, I can’t imagine a low score. I am going to take the over — hoping the weather report moves the line a bit more in our favor. For the purpose of this article, I am going to lock in the over at 54 points, specifically on DraftKings because of today’s double winnings promotion, but would understand grabbing the over 53.5 at FanDuel instead. Given the added expected value on this bet because of the promotion, I might even wait a bit to see if the total moves down a bit more before making my bet. Regardless, I am on the over tonight — crossing my fingers that the forecast doesn’t shift to a massive storm. Good luck!
Sunday Night Football Pick: Over 54.5 at FanDuel
Titans-Packers Player Props
Davante Adams OVER 89.5 Receiving yards (-115 PointsBet) – The Titans’ defense is pretty dreadful and as mentioned previously, Davante Adams will be peppered with targets throughout the game. Adams’ 131 targets rank 7th in the NFL coming into the Sunday slate — but in only 12 games. Adams should have a huge game on Sunday Night._
Davante Adams – First Touchdown Scorer (+525 DraftKings) – DraftKings Sportsbook is running a promotion for a risk-free bet up to $20 on a first touchdown scorer for tonight’s game. If your selection does not score the first touchdown but scores at some point in the game, DraftKings will award your back up to $20. Normally, I prefer to get a bit off the board with my touchdown scorers but given the volume, Adams receives in the redzone, I feel pretty confident that he will score on the atrocious Titans’ defense at some point.
I guess we are hoping Davante Adams has a banner game this evening. Good luck with your bets. Look for a column on Monday Night Football, tomorrow.
Image Credit: Imagn