Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, Prediction & Pick
Titans vs. Steelers Odds
| Titans Odds | +3 |
| Steelers Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 36.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 2 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
This evening, the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet for a Thursday Night Football affair to begin Week 9 of the NFL regular season. Tennessee enters play 3-4, but they are 1-0 with new quarterback Will Levis under center. Pittsburgh is 4-3 and tied for second place in the AFC North division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 36.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee Titans
Will Levis to make second start for Titans
Making his first career NFL start in Week 8, Will Levis finished with 238 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 28-23 win over the Falcons. The team’s 28 points scored were a season-high and the first time since Week 18, 2021 that Tennessee hit that point threshold.
Nevertheless, the final line for Levis is misleading in a number of ways. According to Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, Levis finished with only a 29% success rate for the day, which means the passing attack had only six “successful” plays outside of his touchdown passes. Tennessee’s 29% success rate through the air was the second-lowest mark of the weekend, only ahead of the Giants, which suffered through a game with their second and third-string quarterbacks against a tough Jets secondary unit.
Notably, Levis was 14-for-17 for 192 passing yards from a clean pocket on Sunday, but only 4-for-11 for 42 passing yards when under pressure. Pittsburgh’s pass rush has been inconsistent this season, but they have had two games with at least a 33.3% pressure rate this fall. Tennessee’s starting right tackle, Chris Hubbard, has been ruled out for Thursday, which makes it more likely than not that Levis is under duress a fair amount in this contest.
Roger McCreary ruled OUT
Cornerback Roger McCreary has been ruled out for tonight’s contest against the Steelers, which is a major loss for the Titans’ secondary unit. McCreary ranks 35th out of 114 qualified players at his position this year in coverage grade, according to PFF. He has been one of the few bright spots for the Tennessee pass defense in 2023, doing an excellent job handling opposing slot wide receivers.
In McCreary’s absence, Eric Garror is likely to see an expanded role as Tennessee’s slot cornerback. He played 51 snaps in the slot in Week 8, allowing five catches on six targets in his direction. Garror, undrafted out of Louisiana, does not project well in this matchup. Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin could benefit in the slot for Pittsburgh this evening.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett “definitely playing”
On Tuesday, Kenny Pickett met with the media and said “I’m playing for sure.” Whether or not that is a good thing for the Pittsburgh offense is a debate for another time. Pickett has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in 2023. He ranks dead last among qualified signal callers in passer rating from a clean pocket and 26th out of 28 qualified players in yards per attempt. Pickett ranks 29th in QBR and has only one game this season in which he has thrown for multiple touchdown passes.
Dating back to last season, Pickett has only one game in his entire career with multiple touchdown passes. In games that Pickett has played, Pittsburgh’s offense has scored 20 points or fewer 15 times. In 2023, the Steelers rank 25th in passing yards per play.
Even in a favorable matchup against a beatable Tennessee secondary unit, Pickett and company are unlikely to light up the scoreboard.
Minkah Fitzpatrick ruled OUT
All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick left last week’s contest against the Jaguars early due to a hamstring injury and did not return. He has been ruled out for tonight’s action against the Titans as well, which is a tremendous loss for Pittsburgh’s defense.
Fitzpatrick ranked 10th out of 82 players at his position this year against the run. His replacement options, Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal, rank 68th and 45th, respectively, against the run this season. Kazee and Neal also rank 60th and 58th out of 88 qualified players at their position in coverage, per PFF.
Outside of emerging star cornerback Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh is notably thin on talent in their secondary unit heading into Week 9. Fortunately, they will get defensive tackle Cameron Heyward back for tonight’s game. Heyward has finished 6th or better at his position in PFF’s grading system each of the last four seasons.
Titans vs. Steelers – Picks & Predictions
According to Dale Lolley, Tennessee is 0-4 this season in games in which they have had to get on a plane. In those four games, they have yet to score more than 16 points. The Titans scored a season-high 28 points last weekend with Will Levis under center, but the way in which they scored points is unlikely to be sustainable week-over-week. Facing a Pittsburgh defense that is returning Cameron Heyward to the field tonight, Levis is likely to find it difficult to replicate the success he experienced in his NFL debut. Tennessee is missing their starting right tackle tonight, which only increases the chances that Levis is put in uncomfortable situations this evening. If Pittsburgh can get consistent pressure on Levis on Thursday, Tennessee is going to find it difficult to put points on the board.
LEAN: Titans Total Points – Under 18.5 (-140, Fanatics Sportsbook)