Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 18th
It’s ace day, as there are a ton of really solid pitchers toeing the rubber today making good matchups few and far between. There are a couple of games I am targetting, and some that I am avoiding all together.
I apologize for not getting one of these up yesterday, there was a birthday to celebrate and things got a little wilder than expected. I thought about writing a quick article called “what teams to stack on DK tonight” but I didn’t want 15 new threads in the forums started. :(
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 1.008 | 0.231 | 0.342 | 1.05 | Dickey – R | 5.82 | 0.25 |
| Alex Rios | 0.789 | 0.357 | 0.451 | 1.05 | Dickey – R | 5.82 | 0.347 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.62 | 0.27 | 0.391 | 1.18 | Niese – L | 3.57 | 0.091 |
| Joey Votto | 1.24 | 0.414 | 0.451 | 1.08 | Fernandez – R | 0.82 | 0.333 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.671 | 0.405 | 0.464 | 1.08 | Fernandez – R | 0.82 | 0.382 |
| Justin Ruggiano | 0.721 | 0.27 | 0.316 | 0.97 | Cingrani – L | 0 | 0.263 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.592 | 0.269 | 0.303 | 1.09 | McAllister – R | 2.19 | 0.351 |
| Justin Upton | 0.975 | 0.31 | 0.527 | 0.88 | Locke – L | 4.09 | 0.382 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 0.929 | 0.276 | 0.295 | 1.09 | Cain – R | 5.94 | 0.25 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.55 | 0.303 | 0.313 | 1.09 | Hughes – R | 10.29 | 0.233 |
- Paul Konerko continues to play solid baseball even at his advanced age. Here the White Sox get matched up with Robert Allen, who has been just terrible at home lately. I am buying into the kool-aid at this point that being in a dome is hurting his knuckleball, and am excited to play some White Sox tonight. It doesn’t hurt that Konerko hits right handers better than left handers.
- I was thinking about copying Konerko’s write up but for Alex Rios he isn’t as old. Rios started off the season super hot, and has cooled off a bit, but is still in a nice spot. He also hits right handers just as good as left handers.
- Keep an eye on Troy Tulowitzki elbow, but he should be fine after he sat the 2nd game of the doubleheader. The real question is will the weather postpone another game? Tulo has a solid matchup as he has been pretty successful against Niese, is a power shortstop in Coors, not much more you can ask for.
- Eventually Joey Votto is going to get his super power game going, and he is still sitting pretty cheap on certain sites around the industry. I know that Fernandez has been great in his first 2 starts and has solid numbers, but the Reds are highly favored in this game by Vegas with one of the highest over unders.
- Shin-Soo Choo has cooled a bit since his absurdly hot start but one thing stays consistent, is that he rakes against right handers. I could see Choo going for a leadoff homer today.
- Playing Marlins players always seems like a bad thing to do, but I think Justin Ruggiano could potentially be a cheap option who plays pretty well. Ruggiano was a lefty killer last year and gets to face a top prospect in Cingrani today, who could be a bit nervous and serve one up for Justin.
- Jacoby Ellsbury has been basically an automatic out against left handers so far, but here he is against the right handed McAllister who he should be able to get a couple of knocks off of. He is always a threat to steal a bag or 2 and is 2 for 3 off McAllister in his career.
- Justin Upton has been basically a plug and play for the first part of the season, and this game is no different. Locke is arguably the worst hitter out there today and should struggle against the potent Braves lineup even in PNC.
- I have always been a big fan of Yuniesky Betancourt and with all of the bad options at shortstop, I am kind of surprised he hasn’t been able to stick around anywhere. He carries some power and has been hitting the ball really well lately. Miller Park is a solid right handed park and he is 3 for 6 off Matt Cain, who hasn’t looked like himself lately. Betancourt is a nice option at SS if you want to save some salary.
- Hughes has been garbage this year, and I don’t expect that to stop here. Miguel Montero brings a nice middle of the order left handed bat against the trash can Hughes in Yankee Stadium, sounds to me like a fantasy goldmine; and he is cheap almost everywhere!
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morse | 0.929 | 0.269 | 0.433 | 0.93 | Verlander – R | 1.96 | 0.345 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.285 | 0.133 | 0.222 | 0.9 | Lester – L | 1.42 | 0.174 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.69 | 0.314 | 0.32 | 0.9 | Lester – L | 1.42 | 0.235 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.714 | 0.304 | 0.372 | 1.03 | Gallardo – R | 6.61 | 0.324 |
| Chase Utley | 0.818 | 0.275 | 0.395 | 0.97 | Wainwright – R | 2.05 | 0.359 |
| Adam Lind | 0.785 | 0.235 | 0.269 | 1.01 | Sale – L | 5.21 | 0 |
| Nick Markakis | 0.868 | 0.326 | 0.362 | 1.04 | Price – L | 5.82 | 0.25 |
| Nolan Reimold | 0.61 | 0.273 | 0.275 | 1.05 | Price – L | 5.82 | 0.333 |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.581 | 0.217 | 0.301 | 0.92 | Verlander – R | 1.96 | 0.222 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.682 | 0.282 | 0.32 | 1.05 | Gonzalez – R | 2.92 | 0.205 |
- Michael Morse comes back from his injury, and now gets to face Justin Verlander. He also has to bat in Safeco field, which isn’t a recipe for success. There is a very low chance that the Mariners score a lot of runs, so upside is limited here.
- Nearly every statistic says that Asdrubal Cabrera is going to suck tonight. He has been awful lately, will be hitting right handed against Lester which is bad in Progressive, and Lester has been really solid his first few starts. Do not get cute and try to use him.
- Michael Brantley has also been anemic this year, and is terrible against left handers. Lester should be able to own this entire Indians lineup as they just lost Bourn to the 15 day DL as well.
- Pablo Sandoval has had a nice start, but his power numbers have slipped recently and here he gets Gallardo in a park which isn’t as juicy hitting from the left as from the right. In addition, the panda has only 2 hits in 15 at bats against Gallardo.
- Chase Utley has been mashing right handers to start the season, but this right hander has given him a bunch of trouble in the past. Utley is only 2 for 14 off of Wainwright in his career who is bringing his best stuff to the mound.
- Adam Lind hasn’t faced a lefty yet this season, and generally isn’t very good against them. The first one he gets to face this year is Chris Sale who could really get him off to a bad start against left handers.
- Whatever made Price horribad at the beginning of the season seems to have passed as he turned in a solid outing last start. Nick Markakis hasn’t had much success off Price in his career going 9 for 36 and hardly and extra base hits. This could be a long day for Baltimore with Tampa’s ace on the mound.
- Nolan Reimold also has had no success against Price going 3 for 21 in his little sample. Reimold hasn’t exactly been tearing it up and it looks like if you are stacking you may want to find someone other than Baltimore as not many hitters have done well against Price.
- Speaking of BVP, the worst BVP tonight has to be for Raul Ibanez against Verlander, who is 3 for 29 with 5 strikeouts. Not many Seattle players have had any success against JV and after last night’s long out-fest, some of these guys have to be wondering if it is actually possible to hit this white ball.
- Some were expecting Desmond Jennings to have a breakout campaign, but he is making them wait at least. He has been pretty cold to start the season, and has had no success against right handers. Here he gets a right hander who has been pretty effective in Gonzalez and Jennings is 1 for 10 in his career against him. On DraftKings, Jennings’ price is absolutely out of control high, all I want to know is how it got that high.