Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 30th
A huge night in Daily Fantasy, with the Big Score on DraftStreet, $25 DFBC qualifier on FanDuel and a $44 Big League Blast qualifier on DraftDay to only name a couple of the big tournaments going on around the industry. Lets not waste any time and get right to the analysis.
It should be noted that the RotoGrinders park factors were just updated to include this year’s stats as the fences have been moved in at Petco and Safeco, so if the numbers are a bit different, that would be why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Pedroia | 1.174 | 0.397 | 0.371 | 1.09 | Morrow – R | 5.27 | 0.311 |
| Nelson Cruz | 1.282 | 0.358 | 0.384 | 0.99 | Quintana – L | 2.78 | 0.429 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.499 | 0.309 | 0.317 | 0.97 | Morrow – R | 3.18 | 0.32 |
| Brandon Moss | 1.067 | 0.404 | 0.385 | 0.92 | Richards – R | 3.65 | 0.311 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.008 | 0.346 | 0.378 | 1 | Hammel – R | 3.82 | 0.349 |
| Chris Johnson | 0.6 | 0.45 | 0.396 | 0.93 | Gonzalez – L | 4.5 | 0.458 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.733 | 0.297 | 0.319 | 0.93 | Hudson – R | 4.5 | 0.289 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.646 | 0.304 | 0.388 | 1.04 | McDonald – R | 4.38 | 0.262 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.907 | 0.324 | 0.283 | 0.86 | De La Rosa – L | 2.86 | 0.345 |
| Jon Jay | 1.2 | 0.254 | 0.288 | 1.12 | Arroyo – R | 4.24 | 2.5 |
- Dustin Pedroia has been insane against Morrow going 10 for 20 with 2 home runs. He has been pretty good recently as well, and faces Morrow who is struggling. In this Boston lineup right now he looks like a nice play.
- Even though Quintana has been good, Nelson Cruz is a guy that I am going to keep playing until he cools off. He is producing points each and every game and is destroying left handed pitching this year. Oh, and he’s in Arlington.
- Part of Jacoby Ellsbury struggles this season have been in part to hitting against left handers. He gets Morrow today, and with the success he’s had off of him in the past I wouldn’t be worried about him struggling. The only thing I am worried about is how expensive he would be because he has been one of the highest salary guys for a while.
- Brandon Moss hit the game winner in last night’s 19 inning marathon and I’m looking for him to keep that going today. He faces Garrett Richards who I am not too high on, and all of Moss’ power comes off right handers. He should be fairly cheap for a nice upside.
- Kyle Seager has been on a tear lately, even having a 15 game hitting streak. He is cheap across all sites, and gets a nice matchup against the right handed Hammel.
- With all of the good pitching matchups today you may have to take a lower priced guy against a stud, and Chris Johnson is one of the ones I may want to gamble on. He was leading the league in average, but has cooled off; except not against left handers. He is still batting .458 on the season and is in a high powered offense.
- Jayson Werth gets my vote for favorite BVP of the day, as there aren’t many. He is 15 for 39 off of Hudson in his career with 3 home runs. I still can’t believe they paid him all of that money.
- Most of the guys on this list are pretty expensive, but if you can afford Ryan Braun as well he should have a nice game. He has good splits against McDonald going 6 for 13 with 2 home runs, plus he is at home where he loves to hit homers.
- Playing Matt Kemp against a left hander is a pretty well known strategy in daily fantasy, but it needs to be taken advantage of right now as his early season struggles have dropped his price and he seems to be getting it together.
- Jon Jay is back in the leadoff role for the Cardinals and should be able to get on base against Arroyo who struggles against left handers and got lit up last game.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Willingham | 1.047 | 0.282 | 0.41 | 1.21 | Verlander – R | 1.95 | 0.22 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.708 | 0.25 | 0.309 | 1.21 | Verlander – R | 1.95 | 0.214 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.418 | 0.347 | 0.387 | 0.97 | Ryu – L | 3.41 | 0.387 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.443 | 0.235 | 0.244 | 1.03 | Bumgarner – L | 1.87 | 0.25 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.79 | 0.392 | 0.453 | 1.12 | Garcia – L | 2.96 | 0.194 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.291 | 0.231 | 0.284 | 1.04 | Estrada – R | 3.86 | 0.232 |
| Michael Morse | 0.737 | 0.25 | 0.329 | 0.9 | Hammel – R | 3.82 | 0.234 |
| David Murphy | 0.317 | 0.189 | 0.233 | 1.05 | Quintana – L | 2.78 | 0.212 |
| Adam Lind | 0.971 | 0.275 | 0.33 | 0.97 | Lester – L | 2.27 | 0 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.729 | 0.329 | 0.349 | 0.85 | Arroyo – R | 4.24 | 0.297 |
- I didn’t like the matchup for Josh Willingham last night, and I think it’s even worse tonight. His homer off of Scherzer was a bit of fortune, but I don’t think he will have the same fortunes today as he is 1 for 11 career against Verlander.
- With Trevor Plouffe, it’s the same deal. He managed to get a hit and a run last night, and I think that was at his point ceiling last night. Here his matchup is even worse and he is 3 for 17 against Verlander.
- Carlos Gonzalez had 3 hits last night to break out of his slump. Wait right there though, as it may continue for one more game as he is facing lefty killer Ryu. Lefties are hitting Ryu at a .178 clip this season, so I would avoid the high price tag on this one.
- Miguel Montero is just ice cold right now and it’s not getting any better, especially not matched up against Bumgarner. Bumgarner has been good so far this year and Montero owns a career 3 for 18 against him.
- I am finding it hard to justify taking the high salary on Shin-Soo Choo at this time. After his scorching start he has cooled a bit and now faces a left hander in Garcia. Choo has never had success against lefties, so he doesn’t look prime for a big game.
- One thing I am watching for is Andrew McCutchen turnaround as I want to start using him when he gets hot as his salary is so low. I don’t think this will be the time when he turns it around as he is only 4 for 16 off Estrada in his career.
- Michael Morse is the one thing in the Seattle offense that isn’t going well right now. If he can turn it around and start producing, the Seattle offense might look dangerous especially if Saunders and Gutierrez keep hitting with power. Anyways, Morse haven’t been doing great and Safeco isn’t nice to right handers.
- David Murphy hasn’t taken the opportunity of a full time job and ran with it. He is really struggling to get hits right now, and I wouldn’t even think about touching him against Quintana.
- Adam Lind is back with the Blue Jays after paternity leave, and it may not be such a good thing as he has been pathetic against Lester. In fact, I don’t think the Blue Jays will even start him, so just ignore him in this situation.
- Yadier Molina has had no success against Arroyo in his career, going 7 for 43 with a .364 OPS. As mentioned above, Arroyo is much better against right handers, so I would think twice about using Molina here.