Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 6th
The first full Saturday of MLB games is a welcome sight. Get some lineups in early, and relax for the day and watch it unfold. There are a lot of good storylines already creeping up, including the tear that this man is on.
All stats are still from last year’s numbers. Make sure to check starting lineups before just plugging these guys in as some may get rested or sat. Make sure to also check weather before game time as a rainout could ruin your day.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Utley | 0.793 | 0.261 | 0.342 | 0.97 | Mendoza – R | 4.23 | 0.283 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.797 | 0.3 | 0.344 | 1.05 | Happ – L | 4.69 | 0.305 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.999 | 0.331 | 0.417 | 1.01 | Hughes – R | 4.23 | 0.335 |
| David Wright | 0.883 | 0.347 | 0.376 | 0.92 | Nolasco – R | 4.71 | 0.3 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.796 | 0.295 | 0.342 | 1 | Villanueva – R | 4.16 | 0.276 |
| Yonder Alonso | 0.741 | 0.318 | 0.343 | 1.21 | Garland – R | 4.33 | 0.278 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.725 | 0.347 | 0.316 | 1.05 | Harrison – L | 3.29 | 0.309 |
| Chris Davis | 0.827 | 0.335 | 0.352 | 1.04 | Worley – R | 4.2 | 0.271 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 0.665 | 0.272 | 0.285 | 0.99 | Lannan – L | 4.13 | 0.225 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.881 | 0.352 | 0.374 | 1.21 | Ross – R | 6.5 | 0.325 |
- Chase Utley has been hot so far this season, crushing right handers. He is a significantly better hitter against righties than lefties and gets a nice matchup here with Mendoza.
- Dustin Pedroia is known for his ability to rake against lefties, he strikes out less, walks more, and hits them better. Here he gets a nice matchup with a bad lefty at the Rogers Centre and is a pretty good option at 2b for the early games today.
- Miguel Cabrera must have gotten really excited when he learned the Yankees had activated Hughes for this game. Cabrera is 9 for 20 with 4 home runs off Hughes in his career. Cabrera hits right handers better than left handers, and Hughes will have to throw him something with Fielder right behind him.
- David Wright is more of a BVP pick here than anything. I think BVP is useful taking other things into consideration, unless there is a big sample. When you have 63 ABs like Wright does against Nolasco, you begin to see a pattern. Wright is hitting .397 with a 1.202 OPS against Nolasco in his career, and it appears that Wright just has a good read on Nolasco.
- I believe Freddie Freeman is going to have a breakout campaign this year in what I think will be a high scoring lineup in Atlanta. He has started out hot, and I like it to continue here against an average right hander in Villanueva. He should have lots of RBI opportunities, unless Upton clears the bases every time.
- Yonder Alonso gets to bat at Coors Field against Jon Garland. I would actually think about taking most of the San Diego lefties in this game, but Alonso should be cheap and will most likely hit 4th, so I like his RBI chances.
- Howie Kendrick gets to face Matt Harrison in Rangers Ballpark today and I think this is a pretty solid matchup for him. He has had some success in the past against Harrison, but the thing that sticks out to me is on opening day Harrison got rocked by the same Astros who are setting strikeout records all over the place. If the Astros can do that to him, what about this Angels lineup?
- Chris Davis is facing a right hander. Davis is basically the second coming at this point, and his price seems to have continued to stay low enough to use him. Ride this streak until he cools down.
- Last year’s stats may not seem to be the best indicator that Jeff Francoeur will have a solid game, however a couple of things tell me otherwise. He always starts out the season fast and seems to play his best ball in the spring, this year no different, and he is facing John Lannan who he has hit well in the past to a tune of 13 for 25 with a 1.3 OPS. He is most likely cheap wherever you are playing and can post a nice stat line.
- Here we go again. Carlos Gonzalez let me down yesterday, but the stats say you have to play him again today. Hopefully his price has dropped a bit, but I can’t see not using him against Tyson Ross and in Coors Field.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Rios | 0.85 | 0.323 | 0.361 | 1.05 | Hernandez – R | 3.06 | 0.308 |
| Garrett Jones | 0.832 | 0.293 | 0.352 | 0.95 | Kershaw – L | 2.53 | 0.189 |
| Neil Walker | 0.768 | 0.326 | 0.334 | 0.91 | Kershaw – L | 2.53 | 0.246 |
| Matt Holliday | 0.877 | 0.337 | 0.378 | 0.85 | Vogelsong – R | 3.37 | 0.288 |
| Chris Young | 0.745 | 0.263 | 0.325 | 0.99 | Norris – R | 4.65 | 0.21 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.837 | 0.324 | 0.363 | 0.87 | Cobb – R | 4.03 | 0.273 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 0.745 | 0.268 | 0.328 | 1.01 | Scherzer – R | 3.74 | 0.22 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.708 | 0.274 | 0.305 | 0.97 | Lannan – L | 4.13 | 0.254 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.882 | 0.317 | 0.375 | 1.09 | Fiers – R | 3.74 | 0.316 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.732 | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.92 | Villanueva – R | 4.16 | 0.22 |
- Alex Rios doesn’t have an issue hitting right handers, but he does have an issue hitting Felix Hernandez. Rios is 5 for 23 with 9 strikeouts against the king, and I don’t see that changing much here.
- Garrett Jones has a terrible matchup against Kershaw, who is arguably the best pitcher in the game right now. His matchup is so bad, that Pittsburgh probably won’t even play him, so stay away at all costs.
- Jones’ teammate, Neil Walker also has a bad matchup against Kershaw and I would avoid completely as well. Walker will switch hit and hit from the right, but he is probably better off just hitting left handed since he is a terrible right handed hitter. His ISO hitting right handed last year was .042.
- Matt Holliday and co. could do nothing yesterday against the pitching of Zito, and that looked like a great matchup for them. It just gets worse from here as Holliday can’t hit right handers as well as left and Vogelsong is a decent right hander in a pitcher’s park. I hate Holliday’s upside in this game.
- Chris Young really struggled against his right handed counterparts last year and is 0 for 8 in his career against Bud Norris.
- Nick Swisher will be able to turn around and bat lefty against Cobb, however he hasn’t had much success against the right hander in his career, although it is a very small sample. Working against Swisher as well is playing in Tropicana field which has a pretty difficult park factor to hit if you are hitting from the left side.
- Kevin Youkilis burned me yesterday, can he do it again? I still think he is a bad play today, especially against another right hander. Fister was a bit wild, and gave Youkilis something to hit, which I don’t think Scherzer will. No Yankees have had real success against Max and Youkilis is no different with only an .807 OPS over 17 ABs.
- Mike Moustakas has been pretty cold to start the year, and now he gets another left hander in not the best park situation. I think he stays cold and we still wait for what could be from the prospect.
- Aaron Hill gets to face Mike Fiers, who he is 0 for 3 against in his career. The BVP is not as important as the fact that Fiers has a weird release that makes the ball hard to pick up by batters who have not seen him very much before. I do not believe Hill is too familiar and should struggle a bit again against Fiers. If he is going to get him, it will be in the late at bats.
- Dan Uggla is a notoriously slow starter, and even though he gets to face Villanueva, he isn’t in a good park and most of his home runs come off left handers. He also has a pretty bad K rate and doesn’t walk as much against right handers.