Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 13th
Here we have a DFS Tuesday with only one big event remaining, the Starstreet PFBC. The GPPs are where the money is at now, and there are some solid matchups out there tonight. I can see about 4-5 teams that could post massive run totals tonight so I think tonight could be a night to find some nice value pitchers and go full blast on hitters.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venable | 1.013 | 0.286 | 0.33 | 0.98 | Manship – R | 3.6 | 0.243 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.603 | 0.282 | 0.314 | 0.94 | Vargas – L | 3.65 | 0.275 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 1.03 | 0.34 | 0.349 | 1.09 | Redmond – R | 4.22 | 0.328 |
| Brian McCann | 0.666 | 0.28 | 0.376 | 1.01 | Martin – R | 6.75 | 0.304 |
| Allen Craig | 0.649 | 0.369 | 0.364 | 0.91 | Morton – R | 3.88 | 0.332 |
| Nolan Arenado | 1.06 | 0.285 | 0.313 | 1.09 | Stults – L | 3.5 | 0.268 |
| Aaron Hill | 1.52 | 0.332 | 0.382 | 0.98 | Gonzalez – R | 3.52 | 0.298 |
| Brandon Moss | 0.632 | 0.291 | 0.336 | 0.91 | Lyles – R | 5.4 | 0.258 |
| Josh Reddick | 1.4 | 0.235 | 0.301 | 0.91 | Lyles – R | 5.4 | 0.22 |
| Jose Reyes | 0.846 | 0.326 | 0.368 | 1.09 | Dempster – R | 4.67 | 0.311 |
- Jeff Manship gets the start for the Rockies tonight, and Vegas is not too high on him, almost favoring the Padres in this game. Will Venable is extremely hot with the bat and has extra base hits in 4 straight. Venable hits at the top of the Padres lineup which Vegas has set at 4.5 runs.
- I am not immediately discounting Alfonso Soriano from my lineups anymore as he can still be an effective fantasy asset. He hits in the middle of the order against left handers and has extra pop against them as well. He has had success against Vargas in the past going 5 for 10 with 3 doubles, and Vargas gives up all of his homers to right handers.
- Rogers Centre right now is the most hitter friendly park according to this years Park Factor stats, so as usual this game has a 10 over/under. Anyone hitting at the top of the Red Sox order who crushes right handers and is hitting against Todd Redmond deserves a look, especially if it is Ellsbury. The Rogers Centre could give him that extra boost he needs to crack one out tonight as well.
- Brian McCann has came back from his knee injury and now gets to face Ethan Martin at home. Last time Ethan Martin faced the Braves it was a disaster surrendering 6 ER in 4 innings and Brian McCann was a big part of that with a homer and 2 RBI. Martin does not have too many stats but the ones he has are bad and the Braves are a gigantic favorite tonight. I would not be worried about his lack of production recently as this is a top tier spot.
- This play for Allen Craig is based off the fact that this year Craig is really doing some nice damage to right handed pitching with a .850 OPS and that he has owned Morton in their meetings with 8 hits on 15 at bats and a 1.298 OPS. This is projected to be a low scoring game, but if you want a solid hitter, at home, with lots of doubles potential, Craig would be your guy.
- Nolan Arenado is hot right now with a nice 9 game hitting streak and some productive fantasy games in that time. The Rockies are playing in Coors against an average left handed starting pitcher so any right hander on the Rockies makes a solid play today. I like Arenado because of his cheap price, he is hot, and he does not have to clog your outfield with all of the good options tonight.
- Aaron Hill is on a ridiculous tear right now, so to get him you will have to pay, however it should be worth it. He has homers in 3 straight games, and multiple hit games in 5. He has done this all against right handed pitching, and he faces another right hander tonight in Gonzalez who has given up 13 homers to right handers on the year. Hill’s last 3 years stats show he hits righties better than left, so this is a nice play tonight.
- The Astros look to trot Lyles out there again tonight, which was a complete disaster last time out. Lyles is bad all around giving up a .800 OPS to both right handers and left, his WHIP is 1.53 and his ERA is bad as well in addition to really struggling lately. Even in o.Co I am looking to fire up all Athletics bats especially Brandon Moss who excels at hitting right handed pitching and should be affordable.
- As noted above, Lyles is garbage, and not only Reddick but Cespedes and Donaldson are solid plays as well. I look to feature Reddick just because of his ridiculous 5 dongs in 2 days, and that he definitely has multiple homer potential. He has walked a couple of times recently showing the pitchers may be scared of him now, but Lyles should make a few mistakes like usual and give him one to crack.
- If you want to spend for a shortstop, look no further than Jose Reyes. He faces Dempster who is known to implode, and Reyes has a monster hit streak going. Reyes hits much better at home with a 1.001 OPS and is an absolute top tier SS if you want to pay for that position.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Butler | 1.253 | 0.324 | 0.354 | 0.94 | Fernandez – R | 2.58 | 0.287 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.783 | 0.276 | 0.318 | 0.97 | Bumgarner – L | 2.75 | 0.19 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.702 | 0.298 | 0.282 | 1.01 | Bailey – R | 3.73 | 0.261 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.75 | 0.272 | 0.31 | 1.01 | Samardzija – R | 4.23 | 0.257 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.775 | 0.263 | 0.294 | 0.91 | Scherzer – R | 2.84 | 0.219 |
| Juan Lagares | 0.757 | 0.339 | 0.302 | 0.93 | Ryu – L | 2.99 | 0.269 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.51 | 0.269 | 0.33 | 1 | Estrada – R | 4.96 | 0.252 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.27 | 0.277 | 0.3 | 0.97 | Gonzalez – L | 3.52 | 0.269 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.868 | 0.26 | 0.298 | 1.02 | Sabathia – L | 4.73 | 0.171 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.277 | 0.346 | 0.383 | 0.91 | Wainwright – R | 2.66 | 0.301 |
- Billy Butler is hot and smacked a homer last night against Ryan Webb, but Fernandez is no mid inning relief pitcher. Fernandez has the ability to go the distance if he is working all of his pitches well and can shut down an offense. Butler has always been better against left handed pitching and Fernandez is holding right handers to a .517 OPS.
- Adam LaRoche is having a pretty terrible season, especially against left handed pitching with a .570 OPS. He is not as productive as last year and really struggles to get the bat on the ball against a lefty. Bumgarner is a good lefty and the Nationals really do not hit lefties all that well as a team. I would not use LaRoche ever here with all the good 1b options out there.
- Any time I can bring up what a terrible season Starlin Castro is having I will do that. It almost looks like all power has left his bat, as he has 2 XBH in August so far. Homer Bailey has held him to 5 hits on 24 at bats and Bailey is one of the best at getting out right handers this year. I am not worried about the 2 HR that Castro has hit against Bailey as he cannot hit for power right now.
- Jeff Samardzija is really tough to figure out right now. He has 2 9 ER games in a month but those sandwich some pretty effective starts. He has rebounded well after a terrible start last time so we will see what happens this time, I think he has a decent game in him. He has had success against Votto, Bruce, Cozart in the past and has held Phillips to 3 hits on 23 at bats with 6 strikeouts and no walks, so he has owned Brandon in his career. Phillips would rather hit against left handers and except for his recent homer has not been doing much at all.
- Paul Konerko is easy to pick on, especially when he faces some of the best Tigers pitching as he has some of the worst BVP I have seen. Against Scherzer, he has gone 8 for 35 with 15 strikeouts and a .650 OPS. Scherzer is arguably the best pitcher on the board tonight and the White Sox just look like a bad play all around.
- One thing to look at tonight is Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Mets. The Mets are pretty pathetic right now and cannot seem to hit anything. Most likely they will throw up a bunch of right handers like Juan Lagares to face Ryu, however Ryu has actually been better against righties with his reverse splits. He has held them to a .637 OPS with a lower HR rate and lower average. Lagares has been just average and really has no upside here.
- Ian Kinsler has been garbage recently only having 5 hits in 26 at bats. Kinsler has really done nothing against right handers this year except the occasional homer. He faces Estrada today, and although the Rangers could be a popular pick I would advise against them. Estrada has actually been pretty good away from home this year, and when his stuff is working he is hard to hit. He posted a good game back from the DL last time out and looks to continue that here.
- Pablo Sandoval is producing absolutely nothing right now. He has 0 RBI in August so far and has hit 1 homer in over 3 months. Frankly, it is getting embarrassing. Gio Gonzalez takes the mound today and he looks like an absolute beast against this pathetic Giants offense, especially Sandoval who couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag.
- Josh Hamilton did homer against a left hander recently, but I still do not trust him against them. His career numbers are bad and this year they are worse with a .512 OPS against lefties. Sabathia has been almost as bad as Hamilton this year, but I am still certain that he can get Josh out as it is not hard to make him chase things out of the zone.
- Andrew McCutchen is never a terrible play, but to get the most value out of his sky high salary you need to use him at home against a left hander. In Busch against Wainwright is not my idea of value for Cutch, as Wainwright definitely has the ability to give him an 0/4 night. There are many good value options tonight that have a better matchup than Cutch.