Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 22nd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-07-22 19:17:45

As we get into the post All-Star games, we are going to start prepping for the tournaments that everyone has qualified for all year long, but most of these games now are going to be for the money and bankroll building. There are a lot of suspect pitchers going tonight and some games with insane over/under numbers, but thankfully not a ton of weather concerns.

Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.

Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page

Today’s Hitters to Target

• Chris Davis gets to play against consistenly one of the worst pitchers in the MLB right now in Wade Davis. The guy has just been bad this year, giving up a .919 OPS to lefties and 9 homers. Now he has to face a guy with the same last name who is hitting homers at a record setting pace. I am rolling with Crush today as he should have a ton of opportunites to do damage.

• I understand that there is a high chance that Yoenis Cespedes does not play tonight due to his sore wrist, but if he is in the lineup, I want him in mine. Vegas is very low on Houston in this game giving the Athletics a over under of 5 runs in the game. Cespedes really enjoys hitting against left handers, and seeing a bunch of balls go out of the park like what happened in the home run derby is always good for someone’s psyche.

• Josh Donaldson really has not done much with the bat recently, but he does love hitting against left handers. I think the A’s are a solid team to stack tonight with their over/under 5 and playing in Minute Maid. Donaldson’s price should have dropped a bit with his recent struggles but he should play a big part in the Oakland offense tonight.

• Michael Bourn really enjoys hitting against Harang who he has a nice .345 average and 1.027 OPS against in 29 at bats. Bourn has also homered off of Harang before, which is pretty insane for him. He has also stolen 5 bags and only been caught once against him, so he could potentially re-integrate that bonus into his game tonight. Bourn should be a mid price option with little risk tonight.

• Andrew McCutchen is having a great July, stealing bases, making runs and getting on base. Even his power looks to be coming back as he has 3 homers in the last 5 games. I love to pick on Haren, because he has consistently been awful this year, even taking into account last game when he did not allow an earned run. One start is not going to remove the stain of 7 bad starts before that. Haren is sporting a .913 OPS and surrendered 12 homers against his right handed opponents, and McCutchen should be salivating at his at bats tonight.

• Giancarlo Stanton numbers recently look pretty terrible but that is mostly due to the all-star break, and a couple of rough matchups. Stanton is in Coors field tonight and is facing Pomeranz who has basically set up for batting practice for his opponents this year, giving up a 1.338 OPS to right handers and a 2.68 WHIP. How can you not love Stanton’s matchup especially remembering the havoc he wreaked at Coors last year.

• Troy Tulowitzki is looking like the best option at shortstop tonight, as he is batting in a game projected to score 11 runs, and a team whose line is set at 5.5 which is the highest of the night. Coors field has been money for right handers this year and Tulowitzki has killed them when healthy. You will have to pay for him, but the matchup is almost too good to pass up.

• Another guy to use on the Rockies would be Dexter Fowler. Fowler has been hitting it well recently and bats at the top of the Rockies lineup. With Fowler’s return and Tulo’s return, the Rockies lineup looks much more formidable than it did pre-allstar break. Fowler hits for average against left handers, but hits for power against right handers, and most of his homers come off righty pitchers. Koehler was solid in his first couple of starts, but really has allowed teams to hit him hard recently, so he can only be trusted to give up runs.

• Workman was impressive in the first few innings against Oakland, but he still was not able to finish the game out strong. I am not convinced yet that he can continue to shut down teams like that, and it will be hard to shut down the Rays who are rolling. Zobrist should get a nice boost hitting as a left hander in Fenway park. Zobrist has done most of his damage hitting from the left side this year, so we could see a big game out of him tonight.

• I am impressed with how locked in at the plate Victor Martinez is right now. He has a great approach and is seeing it well and has 6 multi hit games in his last 10. Because of the consistency, his price started low and has raised somewhat, but has never really taken a giant jump so he is still available at a very manageable price at catcher most places.

Today’s Hitters to Avoid

• If you read this article enough you will see my disdain for Alexei Ramirez as a fantasy option often. He just does not bring much power to the table and he is hitting in a poor offense. Adding into the negatives today is the matchup against Scherzer which could turn into a strikeout fest. While Ramirez has avoided getting owned in strikeouts by Scherzer, he is still only 3 for 30 off of him in their careers.

• Talk about falling off the face of the planet, Justin Upton has done just that. He smashed 12 homers in April and has hit 4 since then. All of his other stats are way down since then, and although he is having a resurgent July, he is still relying on the single a bit too much to get on base, as he is not walking. Upton has struggled against Gee in the past going 4 for 15 with 7 strikeouts, so in Citi Field today I can find much better outfield options.

• I dislike Paul Goldschmidt tonight against Garza if the matchup holds and he actually faces Garza. There are trade rumors swirling about Garza, but if he stays and pitches, Goldschmidt could have a poor game. Goldy is coming back to earth a bit, and has not hit a home run since July 6th, while Garza has been totally dominant lately. I would not be worried about the trade talks affecting Garza’s performance, but if the Cubs have to find a replacement, all of a sudden the D-Backs hitters are in play.

• Has Lincecum finally figured out how to crash through the late inning wall that he hits and ruins a completely good game? He threw a ton of pitches last time out but has to be brimming with confidence after pitching a no-hitter, and a confident Tim is dangerous to the other team. He is one of the top priced 2nd basemen but has to hit in AT&T where Lincecum has always been better and the Giants have a solid defensive outfield.

• Austin Jackson has had no luck hitting against lefties this year, evidenced by his .158 average and .599 OPS. Sale is one of the best lefties and he has dominated Jackson only allowing 2 hits in 15 at bats with 7 strikeouts. Jackson is cold, and US Cellular has been brutal to right handers this year. Just stay away.

• I am not sure that I like Jacoby Ellsbury tonight even though the Red Sox lineup is really putting the heat on opposing pitchers. Moore went through a rough start, but has gotten it back together and has posted some really nice lines in the last couple of games. I am more inclined to believe that he is the good pitcher we have seen this month instead of the bad one the was last month. Moore is slightly better against left handers, but I am more concerned about him completely shutting down the Red Sox lineup and not allowing Ellsbury to steal if he was to get on base.

• One troubling thing when looking at Teheran is that you really have no idea what you are going to get when he takes the mound. He could be completely dominant, or just not have any of his stuff that day. He usually does not have 2 bad games in a row and follows up his bad ones with a good one, so he has that going for him. David Wright has been a rock for the Mets, but he is really all they have in terms of a consistent performer. One thing to keep in mind is that Teheran owned the Mets the last time out, so I am very skeptical about Wright tonight.

• Many will see Trevor Plouffe against Blanton tonight and blindly plug him into the lineup. I would urge you just to take a couple of minutes to think about it as the Twins have one of the lowest over/under totals at 3.5. Blanton is terrible and usually good to give up at least a homer per game, but Plouffe does most of his damage against left handed pitchers rather than right handed ones. I am fading Plouffe tonight and counting on Blanton holding the Twins to a decent run total.

• I am not a big fan of using Anthony Rizzo against any left hander, due to his low average, and low OPS even though he has hit a good amount of homers. His career stats just are not good against them. Skaggs has been an anomaly, but has pitched better at home and has limited left handers this year, so I think you can find a better 1st baseman out there somewhere.

• Pablo Sandoval has snapped out of his horrible funk recently, but still isn’t ripping the cover off the ball. It appears how he goes, the Giants go. Sandoval has only hit 1 homer in the past 2 months, and even with his injury, that still is not very good. Arroyo gets a lot of flack for being bad against left handers, but the reality of the fact is that he has been a consistent force in the Reds rotation. He has had 1 game in the last 8 where he has allowed over 3 earned runs, and most of his games he is going deep into, so he is imploding.