Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 12th
A nice split slate today gives us all a chance to sweat some games at work. Congrats to everyone who won their seats into the big tournaments last night but there is always more money to be made, and tonight there are some solid matchups to exploit. Let’s get right to it.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Butler | 1.024 | 0.305 | 0.345 | 0.97 | Verlander – R | 3.71 | 0.281 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 1.132 | 0.324 | 0.327 | 1.02 | Archer – R | 4.91 | 0.287 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.975 | 0.298 | 0.378 | 1.01 | Jimenez – R | 5.03 | 0.314 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.73 | 0.329 | 0.306 | 1.05 | Pelfrey – R | 6.4 | 0.268 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.883 | 0.319 | 0.314 | 0.95 | Bonderman – R | 6.75 | 0.294 |
| Luis Valbuena | 0.557 | 0.275 | 0.344 | 1.09 | Leake – R | 2.93 | 0.26 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.812 | 0.307 | 0.343 | 0.88 | Zito – L | 4.06 | 0.279 |
| Logan Morrison | 0.833 | 0.333 | 0.393 | 1 | Figaro – R | 4.08 | 0.5 |
| Anthony Rendon | 0.975 | 0.414 | 0.346 | 1.08 | De La Rosa – R | 3.38 | 0.313 |
| Nolan Arenado | 1.183 | 0.262 | 0.312 | 1.08 | Ohlendorf – R | 0 | 0.25 |
- Billy Butler may be a guy who people forget about today because he is facing Verlander, but I think his BVP makes him a sneaky good play. He has a 55 at bat sample, so it should not be ignored and has hits in 23 of the 55 attempts. He has a 418 career average against JV and a 1.075 OPS which is better than most every other hitter.
- Jacoby Ellsbury has been really solid in the last couple of weeks, posting monster numbers and stealing bases like there is no tomorrow. His price should still be held down by his slow start, but soon it will be up towards the max. I would use him tonight as Chris Archer has not been the best this year and has some control issues so Ellsbury should be able to get on and steal one.
- I really like Adrian Beltre tonight on a site like Draftstreet which seems to have incorporated left/right splits into their salaries. Beltre hits better against right handers and now gets to face a right hander in Rangers Ballpark which he has hit well in the past with a 1.295 OPS. Beltre has been pretty good recently, and should have a nice game tonight.
- I am surprised at how low Ryan Howard price is on some sites. The guy is still a big power hitter and is always solid against right handers. Today he faces Pelfrey who has been good for giving up a ton of runs, especially against left handers who own him with a .933 OPS. Howard gives you a top tier chance at homering at 1st for a bargain.
- One start does not make a pitcher, and Bonderman’s last start does not make him a good pitcher. He is still garbage, and I would expect the Astros to score a bunch of runs against him. I will play Altuve as he hits at the top of the lineup and still hits at a nice clip against right handers.
- A really cheap option at 3rd who has a decent chance to homer today is Luis valbuena. Valbuena is a nice 6 for 11 off of Leake in his career and also has all 6 of his homers off of right handers. If he is going to hit one, today will be it.
- It is easy to forget how solid Andrew McCutchen has been against left handers in his career and his few attempts this year mask it as well. His price should be lowered due to his slower start to the season and he gets to face Zito who he should be able to hit hard today.
- Finally Logan Morrison is back with the Marlins, and with Stanton, they make the lineup look a ton better. Today the Marlins face Figaro, and if there is any time for them to break out in a ton of runs, this could be it. Morrison has been solid since he has rejoined the majors, and expect him to keep it going here.
- The game in Coors today should be interesting as I expect the Rockies to be big favorites. An interesting play, however, may be Anthony Rendon who is taking over for Danny Espinosa and has been effective in his time at 2nd. He plays in Coors tonight and is a nice cheap option who can put up a couple of hits.
- Without giving you the obvious Rockies picks, I will go with Nolan Arenado who has been producing in the 2 hole for the Rockies. If he plays there again, he could be close to a must play as he is cheap everywhere and Ross Ohlendorf is not a good pitcher.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ethier | 0.411 | 0.267 | 0.286 | 0.98 | Corbin – L | 1.98 | 0.236 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.255 | 0.365 | 0.345 | 0.96 | Verlander – R | 3.71 | 0.263 |
| Omar Infante | 0.798 | 0.311 | 0.322 | 0.97 | Shields – R | 2.81 | 0.298 |
| Kelly Johnson | 0.212 | 0.295 | 0.34 | 1.02 | Aceves – R | 6.57 | 0.252 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.498 | 0.297 | 0.273 | 1.01 | Jimenez – R | 5.03 | 0.273 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 0.255 | 0.264 | 0.24 | 0.85 | Sale – L | 2.68 | 0.195 |
| Jamey Carroll | 0.158 | 0.245 | 0.229 | 1.02 | Cloyd – R | 3.68 | 0.202 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.82 | 0.34 | 0.402 | 1.09 | Wood – L | 2.65 | 0.157 |
| Zach Cozart | 0.477 | 0.266 | 0.276 | 0.99 | Wood – L | 2.65 | 0.275 |
| David Wright | 0.864 | 0.321 | 0.365 | 0.91 | Miller – R | 1.91 | 0.303 |
- I know Andre Ethier homered last night, but facing Corbin today his stock goes way down. Ethier really struggles against left handers and with the season Corbin has been having, I would not trust Ethier for anything.
- A really interesting note about Alex Gordon is that he is hitting left handers better than right handers this year. He is struggling in his last 7 days as well, posting a .255 OPS. In his career, he has had no success against Verlander going 11 for 51 with a .684 OPS, so I would not expect him to do anything spectacular today.
- Omar Infante has been a really solid 2nd base option this year, but today is not a day when I want to take him. Infante will most likely be batting at the end of the lineup as Leyland loves to bat him 9th against right handers. Infante also has a pretty bad 3 for 18 career mark against Shields, and with Big Game James on the mound, I will pass on Omar today.
- Sure Kelly Johnson has been money homering against right handers this year, but he is really cold and if he is not seeing the ball well, I do not want to use him even against Aceves. He will most likely be a part of a lot of mini-stacks, but I would rather use another guy who has hit something in the last few days.
- Elvis Andrus has been cold, and actually not producing very well at all this season. He is a popular pick to stack but I would warn against it today as he is only 1 for 8 against Jimenez and has really been cold in the last 7 days.
- Even if Emilio Bonifacio plays, do not consider starting him. He is garbage in the last 7 days and will be facing Chris Sale who has owned lineups like the Jays this year. I would steer clear of him today.
- Jamey Carroll is just not good, and the Twins always consider batting him leadoff. Taking last night out of the equation, he only had 1 hit in the previous 10 games and looked completely lost at the plate. Even though Cloyd is green, I do not like Carroll here.
- I have beat it like a dead horse this year, but do not even think about using Shin-Soo Choo against a left hander this year. He is terrible against them, and against one like Wood who has been really solid this year, it just does not bode well for the Reds leadoff hitter.
- Zack Cozart has been much better against left handers than right handers this year, but the left handers he has faced have not been Travis Wood. It is pretty insane what Wood has been able to accomplish playing for the Cubs this season, and aside from the last game against Cincinnati, he has been really solid. Cozart is only 1 for 13 in his career against Wood, and with Wood pitching the best of his career, I do not expect that to change.
- Even if David Wright is hitting better against right handers this year, I am still looking at this game as a game which he might struggle. Shelby Miller has been money against right handers posting a .509 OPS this season, and has just been good period. The Mets should have trouble scoring runs today and the recently average David Wright may not be the best play.