Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 6th
I apologize for not getting a breakdown up yesterday, as my modem decided to crap out and I had to get it replaced. Luckily Brighthouse has pretty fast service and was able to get up and running in no time. Tonight is a night with not a ton of good pitchers playing so most of the top salary guys are going to be great plays today. Today’s breakdown has a feature of some lower salary guys who can help you grab the top tier pitcher or the top batters.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Cruz | 1.199 | 0.299 | 0.355 | 1 | Lester – L | 3.53 | 0.314 |
| Jeff Baker | 0.7 | 0.375 | 0.469 | 1 | Lester – L | 3.53 | 0.389 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.982 | 0.254 | 0.344 | 0.85 | Quintana – L | 3.86 | 0.294 |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.913 | 0.228 | 0.344 | 1 | Hughes – R | 5.37 | 0.252 |
| Logan Schafer | 1.727 | 0.306 | 0.288 | 1.06 | Cloyd – R | 4.76 | 0.228 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 1.004 | 0.337 | 0.38 | 0.99 | Hudson – R | 4.8 | 0.314 |
| Ryan Doumit | 1.287 | 0.248 | 0.317 | 1 | Davis – R | 6.16 | 0.232 |
| Matt Carpenter | 1.077 | 0.361 | 0.384 | 0.97 | Kennedy – R | 4.74 | 0.355 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.63 | 0.366 | 0.395 | 0.85 | Quintana – L | 3.86 | 0.373 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.189 | 0.336 | 0.425 | 1.06 | Cashner – R | 3.65 | 0.353 |
- The good thing about daily fantasy is that you can roster Nelson Cruz today, and then when he gets suspended for juicing, have nothing to do with him. Put aside your view on PEDs because he can help you today. He is rocking left handers this year and has a really nice history against Lester going 10 for 19 with 2 homers and a ridiculous 1.624 OPS in their careers.
- A nice interesting cheap play today is Jeff Baker, who, if he is in the lineup, could really add some bargain hits to your lineup. Baker is the Ranger’s lefty specialist and is destroying them this year with 5 homers in 36 at bats. Not to be forgotten are his BVP splits against lester where he has 6 hits in 8 tries.
- Yoenis Cespedes is not having the same offensive season as last year, however he is still an extreme power threat. The bad park factor of US Cellular field has been mainly due to the awful bats that Chicago is putting out there daily, and I really like Oakland in this game even against Quintana.
- Raul Ibanez gets to face his former team, and I remember the last time he face Phil Hughes, he decided that he would go 3 for 3 with 2 homers. Ibanez is one of the hottest hitters hitting for power at this point and his price is still affordable all around the industry.
- Logan Schafer really only plays against right handers, and he played last night so I don’t know if he will be in the lineup again, however he has been one of the hottest hitters in the last 7 days going 7 for 11 when he does play. Tyler Cloyd is not exactly an ace and the last time these two met Schafer went 3 for 3 with 2 doubles.
- Adrian Gonzalez has improved his average to .330 over his recent hot streak with the bat and shows no sign of slowing down. His salary is still really affordable for top tier production, and he has a really nice history off of Hudson going 8 for 17 with 2 homers.
- I think I am going to be rostering Ryan Doumit on most of my teams tomorrow, as he is dirt cheap on almost every site except Draftstreet and is having a really nice power surge recently. He has a 1.287 OPS in his last 7 and is killing right handers. Davis has not been good at all, just like all of the Royals and I think Doumit homers again here.
- One guy who really should not be ignored is Matt Carpenter who is in the best streak of his career. He has a 14 game hitting streak going and 10 of those games he has multiple hits. He is also tied for the MLB lead in runs, so he does not need to homer to get you a ton of fantasy points. He makes one of the better 2nd base options even against Kennedy.
- Josh Donaldson has cooled a bit in the past 7 days but still makes a solid bargain option today against Quintana. I said it before, I am not a big fan of Quintana in this game as guys like Donaldson and Cespedes really like to hit left handers and Quintana has been really sketchy lately with a horrible FB%. He is just asking to give up 4 homers in a game, and today could be it.
- This may seem really easy as the best play at shortstop today, but Troy Tulowitzki is definitely that. Looking over the shortstop options today, there is really nothing that even comes close to the point potential that Tulo has. If you can afford him, roster him.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Murphy | 0.727 | 0.227 | 0.284 | 1.04 | Lester – L | 3.53 | 0.259 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.227 | 0.293 | 0.291 | 0.85 | Straily – R | 4.6 | 0.202 |
| Billy Butler | 0.875 | 0.302 | 0.344 | 0.95 | Pelfrey – R | 6.66 | 0.27 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.906 | 0.369 | 0.379 | 1 | Holland – L | 2.81 | 0.388 |
| AJ Pierzynski | 0.952 | 0.321 | 0.321 | 1.04 | Lester – L | 3.53 | 0.229 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.424 | 0.311 | 0.283 | 0.85 | Straily – R | 4.6 | 0.26 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.856 | 0.292 | 0.28 | 1 | Harang – R | 5.82 | 0.207 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 0.411 | 0.357 | 0.415 | 0.9 | Hudson – R | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.228 | 0.268 | 0.291 | 0.99 | Hudson – R | 4.8 | 0.23 |
| Cody Ross | 0.39 | 0.285 | 0.349 | 0.88 | Miller – R | 1.82 | 0.208 |
- If I am going to take some guys from Texas, I am going to try to use David Murphy as the odd man out. I still do not believe that he is better at hitting left handers than right handers given his stats over the last few seasons, and lester has been pretty good at home this year. Plus, Murphy just is not getting it done with any regularity.
- Not only has Dayan Viciedo stopped hitting against right handers, he has stopped hitting completely in this slump that the White Sox are on. I do not trust any of them at this point, even against Straily. I am going to look at his 2 hits in the last 7 days and just turn right around.
- This one makes me nervous just because of how bad Pelfrey has been, but because of the terrible pitchers today I have to pick some guys facing bad pitchers. Like the White Sox, the Royals have been competely cold and have not broken the 4 run barrier in a very long time. Aside from his 3 hits last night, Butler has been cold recently and has not homered since May 14th. Exercise caution if you are going to stack against Pelfrey.
- When Holland is one of the best pitchers of the night going, it really makes things interesting. When Dustin Pedroia suceeds against lefties, he is doubling against them, and in his career against Holland, he has no doubles in 17 at-bats ending up with a .118 average and a .412 OPS.
- Most of AJ Pierzynski’s stats come off right handers, and that is true for his entire career. He only has 5 homers against lefties in his career so if you are searching for that home run, he is not going to provide it. Lester is not the type of guy that I would want if I was using AJ either.
- I cannot stand Alexei Ramirez for fantasy value, especially in this White Sox lineup right now. Like I noted for Viciedo, he has completely stopped hitting and even against Straily they have a poor machup. Alexei is one of my least favorite fantasy guys as well because in the last 2 years, somehow his wOBA has dropped below .290 and his walk rate is incredibly low as well.
- Harang is going to be another guy that is stacked against today, but be cautious of using Ichiro Suzuki. He is really struggling against right handers this year batting .207 and accumulating a .565 OPS against them. Not to mention that he is 1 for 16 off Harang in his career.
- We do not have too much data on Hanley Ramirez this season, but generally in his career he is worse against right handers than left. He has not exactly been crushing the ball since coming off the DL and his history against Hudson is uninspiring. It is a decent sample with 53 at bats a .264 average and .635 OPS.
- I would normally be all about using Andre Ethier against a right hander but he looks like he has lost all confidence and does not know what he is doing anymore. He has been struggling for a while now, and his 3 for 20 career split vs Hudson really concerns me. These 2 Dodgers could spell trouble for your fantasy team.
- Cody Ross is really struggling, and looks to be a steak waiting for the butcher in Shelby Miller to carve up. Ross cannot hit right handers and Miller has been dominant. I would even think about sitting the red hot Goldschmidt as his price has surpassed Cabrera on some sites.