Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 10th
A packed slate tonight with some really nice matchups to exploit should make for a very interesting night with all of the qualifiers and big tournaments going on around the industry. At this point, the Reds/Brewers game is extremely in doubt, so I didn’t pick any players from that game.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Cruz | 0.535 | 0.303 | 0.352 | 1.05 | Kuechel – L | 4.96 | 0.385 |
| David Ortiz | 0.545 | 0.364 | 0.437 | 0.95 | Ortiz – R | 5.4 | 0.429 |
| Matt Joyce | 0.542 | 0.21 | 0.318 | 0.93 | Volquez – R | 5.5 | 0.247 |
| Michael Saunders | 1.117 | 0.286 | 0.385 | 0.98 | Straily – R | 5.94 | 0.257 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.807 | 0.232 | 0.309 | 1.05 | Kuechel – L | 4.96 | 0.378 |
| Jon Jay | 1.341 | 0.283 | 0.322 | 1.05 | Garland – R | 4.75 | 0.283 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | 0.365 | 0.416 | 0.93 | Cloyd – R | 0 | 0.333 |
| Stephen Drew | 0.982 | 0.244 | 0.313 | 0.95 | Ortiz – R | 5.4 | 0.259 |
| Ruben Tejada | 0.5 | 0.28 | 0.284 | 0.96 | Rodriguez – L | 4.02 | 0.273 |
| Scott Hairston | 0.65 | 0.065 | 0.233 | 0.95 | Detwiler – L | 2.5 | 0.1 |
- Nelson Cruz is a guy who you could regret passing on tonight. The Rangers have the highest over/under of the night at 5.5 and are playing Dallas Kuechel who just isn’t that good. Needless to say, Cruz is raking against left handers this year and makes a terrific start tonight.
- Another guy who you could be sad you passed on tonight is David Ortiz, who gets to face Ramon Ortiz tonight. I guarantee you there are going to be a bunch of stacks against this guy who has played in the MLB 11 years with 8 different teams and has never been any good. Now he is 40 and Toronto is giving him the start at Fenway? This just reeks of something embarrassing, especially for the left handed David Ortiz.
- All of Matt Joyce home runs have came against right handers this year, partly because he only plays against right handers. He has a horrible .210 BABIP which is bound to improve when he starts getting his hit balls in play. He faces Edinson Volquez who has been terrible away from home and is a nice cheap pick to homer tonight.
- Michael Saunders is another cheap pick today who I think has a good chance to homer. In fact, I like Seattle as a sleeper mini-stack as they have the left handed bats to counter Straily. Seattle’s only other time against Straily went pretty well as 3 of them homered, including Saunders, who has been leading off for the Mariners.
- What is interesting about Adrian Beltre is that he also is sporting a very low BABIP which is likely to rise. His salary is at different price points at different sites, so on the sites he is cheapest he makes a really nice bargain. He has been knocking lefties hard this year and should form a back to back duo with Cruz which will knock in some runs.
- Jon Jay makes a solid play here against the right handed Garland, as Jay has really been hitting righties well but struggling against left handers. He is also swinging a hot stick going 8 for 16 in the last 7 days with a homer. He could get moved up in the order today as well.
- Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t had a problem hitting right handers this year, so I don’t mind using him tonight. He faces Tyler Cloyd who was just called up to take Halladay’s spot so he could go either way. The one thing I do know is that Cloyd gave up 8 HR in 6 games last year so he is familiar with giving up the long ball which Goldschmidt has been perfecting in the last week.
- My favorite value play for the day is Stephen Drew, even though he hits at the bottom of the order. I said above how Ramon Ortiz seems like an easy guy to pick on, and Drew has actually been very productive with the bat in may, hitting 2 home runs and hitting at 1.057 OPS.
- If you want to go against the crowd and are looking for another value shortstop, Ruben Tejada should do the trick. He is probably cheaper than he was last night, and now faces Wandy Rodriguez and is actually 5 for 7 off Rodriguez in his career. He should be batting leadoff again so he makes a nice option that will probably be lesser owned.
- Scott Hairston numbers are extremely bizarre. If you look at his BABIP, .065 is one of the lowest possible BABIPs one could have, which means that all his balls he hits are getting fielded. Taking a closer look, his GB% is only 23.5% and his FB% is 61.8%, meaning he his hitting balls into the air, they are just to someone. This will turn around as he has a career BABIP of .274, so his numbers are a bit of a smokescreen right now. The good thing is that his price should be extremely cheap for a high power upside guy who has a BVP of 5 for 9 off Wandy with 1 hr and 3 2b.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.874 | 0.409 | 0.476 | 0.97 | Scherzer – R | 3.43 | 0.327 |
| JP Arencibia | 0.747 | 0.315 | 0.337 | 1.01 | Lester – L | 3.3 | 0.229 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.602 | 0.331 | 0.346 | 0.96 | Hudson – R | 3.83 | 0.333 |
| Jayson Nix | 0.61 | 0.3 | 0.245 | 0.91 | Davis – R | 4.75 | 0.192 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.259 | 0.211 | 0.252 | 1.01 | Lester – L | 3.3 | 0.179 |
| Dan Uggla | 1.307 | 0.274 | 0.337 | 0.96 | Cain – R | 5.57 | 0.202 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.502 | 0.282 | 0.281 | 1.07 | Kennedy – R | 5.19 | 0.232 |
| Jed Lowrie | 0.515 | 0.34 | 0.373 | 0.91 | Iwakuma – R | 1.61 | 0.295 |
| Alcides Escobar | 0.296 | 0.267 | 0.292 | 0.98 | Hughes – R | 3.6 | 0.222 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0 | 0.184 | 0.283 | 0.95 | Cobb – R | 2.79 | 0.208 |
- Carlos Santana has been really good but his numbers have slipped a bit in the last couple of weeks. He is a better hitter against lefties, and today he gets the right handed Scherzer who he is 2 for 20 off of in his career. There are cheaper options out there at catcher with higher upside.
- JP Arencibia is having some reverse splits this year, with all of his power coming off right handers. He has struggled against lefties, and in Fenway park I would expect that to continue. I don’t think he will homer tonight as anything he is to hit hard off of Lester is going to end up hitting the Green Monster, so I would also look elsewhere for a catcher other than him. Not to be forgotten, Arencibia’s career OPS is .702 against Lester with 13 strikeouts in 32 at bats.
- Pablo Sandoval has been cold in the last week, posting a .602 OPS and not homering at all. Today he faces Tim Hudson who has owned him to a tune of a .118 batting average and a .235 OPS in 17 at bats. Sandoval is in AT&T park tonight and I will look elsewhere for 3b production.
- Jayson Nix just doesn’t have any numbers going for him today. He has been cold over the past week, his BABIP is sitting at .300 which means he has been getting a fair shake of balls in play, and his wOBA has stayed at a really low .245. He isn’t hitting right handers well and is 1 for 11 career against Wade Davis.
- Brett Lawrie is another Blue Jay who I am scared of tonight, for most of the same reasons as Arencibia, except that he has been downright horrid in the past couple of weeks. He just isn’t hitting right now, and a matchup with Lester in Fenway won’t help to change that.
- Dan Uggla is the boom or bust guy you pick in GPPs to get you over the top when he has that 2 homer game. I don’t think this is the spot to use him in, as he is still striking out at a ridiculous rate. He has a bad history against Cain, going 4 for 19, and hasn’t hit right handers particularly well this year. He will be batting in AT&T which is also really hard to homer in.
- Jimmy Rollins has been terrible recently, and appears to be really struggling at the plate. He hasn’t been walking, and isn’t hitting for much power. Today he faces Kennedy, and even in Chase field I think there are higher upside shortstops out there for cheaper.
- Jed Lowrie has cooled since his scorching hot start, and now owns a .515 OPS in the last 7 days. Not only that, but he is facing Iwakuma in Safeco where he has been lights out. I am going to be avoiding all Athletics today, most specifically Lowrie.
- Alcides Escobar started off the season nice, but now is really doing terrible. He has no extra base hits in the past 7 days and isn’t walking either. He has been terrible against right handers all season, and has to face Phil Hughes in Kauffman who has been quietly effective.
- I would be wary of Carlos Quentin tonight, as this is not how he wanted to begin his season I am sure. He has done nothing over the past 7 days and has been bothered by a nagging knee injury. He shouldn’t be removed tonight as the Padres will be playing at Tropicana, however Alex Cobb has been lights out at Tropicana and poses a formidable opponent to Quentin.