Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 23rd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-09-23 19:13:28

My apologies for no articles last week, however I everyone deserves a vacation at some point in time. I am fresh and ready to finish out this baseball season with some solid picks. The park factors probably will not change from here to the end as they should have a decent one season sample. On sites slow to update salaries, you can really see some of the backups at great prices and get those stars you have been looking for all season.

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Today’s Hitters to Target

• The Reds are looking to somehow catch the Cardinals to win the division, and get a Mets team who is only looking to play spoiler. Harang was rejected by Seattle and only picked up by the Mets to finish out the season and give their prospects a break. Harang is awful in general and worse away, and Votto is hitting right handers at a .979 OPS so there is no reason not to pay for him.

• AJ Pollock is on fire for the DBacks right now, as Stults is winding down his season in a mediocre fashion. Stults has allowed righties to do the brunt of the damage surrendering 12 homers and a .788 OPS to them, while Pollock has done his damage against left handers. If he is cheap he makes a solid under the radar play for tonights game with what should be Goldy hitting behind him.

• Chase Utley is one of the only remaining reminders of a Phillies team that used to dominate year in and year out. His playing time is sporadic as the Phillies have looked to get him some rest but he has been playing often as of late, and productively. He always hits right handers well and Eovaldi has been somewhat suspect over his last 2 games and in the last one giving up 2 RBI to Utley.

• Is it possible the Rangers miss the playoffs this year after the massive collapse last year? Absolutely, and to avoid it, Adrian Beltre is going to need to carry his team across the finish line. Lyles was awful against the Reds last time out and has that ability to completely implode. Beltre seems to be heating up, and I like him against Lyles who has actually struggled against right handers this year giving up a .840 OPS.

• Jeff Keppinger has been one of the 5 worst hitters in the majors this year, so I even surprised myself by including him. He has played the last 3 games against the Tigers doing much damage. He should still be cheap everywhere as 3 good games in a season of awfulness is not going to raise his salary. If you want to go cheap at whichever infield he is position eligible, I like him tonight against the inconsistent Happ who has been worse away from home this year.

• Rajai Davis is no longer the cheap option you can plug in and hope he runs, but even so, his stats scream use me tonight. Davis is hitting .330 against lefties this year and is 7 for 11 with 2 doubles off Quintana in his career to go along with 4 stolen bases and 0 CS. Davis appears to have the green light to run as he has stolen 4 in the last 5, so that 1-3 SBs he can get you are invaluable.

• Andy Dirks is not a known power hitter, but he does like to homer off Pelfrey having hit 2 in 11 at bats with a 1.326 OPS. Dirks has been productive when he plays recently and should hit in a Tigers lineup tonight looking to secure a part of the division title. I really like Dirks’ price and his upside tonight.

• Garrett Richards has been impressive lately, but his WHIP indicates that he may have been getting a bit lucky. The Athletics are rocking right now and are one of the most formidable offenses as all of them are clicking. Lowrie is heating up and should provide some value in a lineup that can score at will, along with Richards struggling against left handed batters this year. I am not too worried about Lowrie’s lack of a power game against lefties as I am expecting him to go for hits runs and RBIs tonight.

• I am going to love this matchup tonight of Roark vs Matt Holliday. Holliday is obliterating any kind of pitching in the last week with 13 hits in his last 22 at bats. He is not striking out and is knocking runs in when it counts. Roark has been equally splended in his starts in the majors, but I am going to side with the veteran Holliday on this one who has been as clutch as any Cardinal could have hoped recently, not to mention that 19 of Holliday’s 20 homers have come off right handers this year.

• I love Salvador Perez as a hidden catcher play tonight against Maurer, who has been, for lack of a better word, awful this year. He is giving up a .906 OPS to right handed hitters and is even worse against lefties. Perez has been a solid fantasy contributor most of the latter parts of the season and I think he gets it done tonight.

Today’s Hitters to Avoid

• I cannot help but take another shot at how bad Starlin Castro has been this season, in fact, he has almost been as bad as Jeff Keppinger. There is just no upside against a guy in Morton who has really been getting the ground ball and been dominant against righties this year.

• I do not expect Brett Wallace to play tonight, but if he does do not even consider him. He has been so horrible against left handers this year it is just embarrassing. Holland is in a position where he really needs to produce a good start and gets the team to do it against, and if Wallace plays we could see a 3 KO game.

• Trevor Plouffe was back in the lineup yesterday, but his wrist seems to be bothering him greatly. He has been awful in the last week and terrible against right handers, and now has to face Justin Verlander who is trying to tune it up for the playoffs. I just do not see anything good about this especially considering Plouffe’s 4 for 24 mark off JV.

• The Nationals travel to Busch Stadium where Wainwright has been dominant this year with a 2.57 ERA. He has had a couple slipups there, but overall pitchers very well at home. Jayson Werth has somewhat cooled and is just hitting at average now with a high salary at some places. I do not like him to produce tonight especially with how low of a shot the Nationals seem to have at the playoffs.

• Carlos Ruiz has been just terrible recently, posting a .247 OPS in the last week. He faces Eovaldi tonight, but I am not too concerned about the pitcher as it does not appear that Ruiz can do much damage off anyone right now much less a right hander. Just look elsewhere for catcher options, you could at least get a more hitter friendly park.

• I expect those who like the Royals tonight to be high on Alex Gordon as well. I would say avoid him and go against the grain for 2 reasons; the first being that Gordon is only hitting .245 against right handers this year with a .685 OPS, and the second being that he has been awful recently, and is bad when he gets into slumps. Fading Gordon could differentiate you from the other GPP Royals stacks.

• Jonathan Villar has had a miserable time at the plate after he crashed into Phillips’ butt a few days ago. Villar is usually good for some steals as well, however he has been getting caught recently and Holland is a lefty and does not allow many stolen bases. I do not see the upside for Villar tonight.

• Erick Aybar has really been struggling lately and now faces AJ Griffin who is fly ball happy and homer prone. The thing about Griffin is that he has given up less homers and less OPS to left handed batters where Aybar will beh itting from tonight, and other than the homers, Griffin has actually been pretty solid. Oakland has good mojo going right now and they should be able to take out the Angels including the struggling Aybar.

• Brandon McCarthy has somewhat regained his pitching prowess going deep into the last 5 games and not allowing many ER. He has given up a plethora of hits however, but I do not think he has to worry about that tonight as Will Venable has been completely awful in the last week. Venable was a solid option for a while but this Padres offense is just putrid right now and brings no upside.

• Miguel Montero is working on hitting under the Mendoza line against left handed pitchers so do not be surprised if Nieves gets the start. Montero has been terrible recently as well and Stults has been dominant against lefties this year. There are better catcher options out there.