Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 26th
As the season winds to a close, some interesting matchup theories come into play. How poor are the team’s attitudes that just got eliminated from the postseason and are they going to collapse in the next game? Do the teams at the bottom of the standings have extra motivation to spoil a contender’s chances? Seeing some numbers on this would be very cool, but until someone with more time can put it together, it is all just a guessing game.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Valencia | 0.261 | 0.324 | 0.382 | 0.99 | Buehrle – L | 4.09 | 0.36 |
| Adam Lind | 1.109 | 0.319 | 0.367 | 1.09 | Gonzalez – R | 3.94 | 0.305 |
| David DeJesus | 1.034 | 0.301 | 0.33 | 1.04 | Nova – R | 3.13 | 0.272 |
| Evan Gattis | 0.609 | 0.249 | 0.325 | 0.91 | Cloyd – R | 5.4 | 0.226 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.939 | 0.323 | 0.38 | 0.99 | Williams – R | 4.55 | 0.313 |
| Howie Kendrick | 1.083 | 0.345 | 0.342 | 0.99 | Garza – R | 3.9 | 0.302 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.498 | 0.273 | 0.326 | 0.99 | McAllister – R | 3.88 | 0.209 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.649 | 0.338 | 0.357 | 0.99 | Albers – L | 3.98 | 0.309 |
| Norichika Aoki | 1.138 | 0.3 | 0.327 | 0.89 | Gee – R | 3.54 | 0.264 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.887 | 0.283 | 0.308 | 0.99 | Albers – L | 3.98 | 0.228 |
- Danny Valencia looked to be taking over 3rd base for Machado, however it was Flahery last night and he made it count. I have been touting Valencia all year and I think he if plays tonight he makes a solid fantasy start as he is still trying to prove he can get it done at the major league level and will not be affected by missing the playoffs. He has 4 homers in around 80 at bats against left handers and has a 1.023 OPS against them.
- Adam Lind solid season has gone a bit under the radar as I do not think many people realize he has hit 23 homers this year and missed a bunch of time. Lind crushes right handers hitting 20 of his 23 off them with a .920 OPS and Gonzalez has been very homer prone over his last 5 starts. Use Lind freely tonight.
- It seems so long and so much has changed between the 18 inning Rays/Orioles game last Friday and today. One thing the same is that David DeJesus is starting to produce for the Rays and produce in clutch situations. I like him again tonight in Yankee Stadium against Nova as Nova’s good start was more of a product of facing the SF offense than a good offense I believe. Nova has struggled with good offensive teams lately and the Rays are going to put their best lineup out there tonight.
- Remember when Evan Gattis was a trend? That was a while ago, and he has since cooled and not really done much lately. This pick is more about how terrible Cloyd has been than how good Gattis is. I love the Braves as a stack tonight, and guys like Freeman and McCann are solid but I like Gattis due to his spot in the order and the fact that Cloyd is basically letting righties mash him giving up a .934 OPS and .331 average to them this season.
- Adrian Beltre has been somewhat productive recently, not as much as when he was destroying it, but he has been decent. He has a plus BVP against Williams going 10 for 24 with 2 homers and a 1.131 OPS. They need Beltre again tonight as Williams has had a ton of success against guys like Rios, Andrus, and Moreland.
- Howie Kendrick was out of the lineup last night but I expect him to play tonight against Garza as the Angels try to ruin the Rangers playoff hopes. Kendrick is 6 for 9 with a homer off Garza so there is some reason to be optimistic along with Kendrick tearing the cover off the ball in the last 2 games he has played. Howie has had a great season and is a solid play at a weak 2nd base position.
- I am only recommending Josh Willingham if he is near minimum salary and is in the starting lineup. He has been dealing with a foot injury so that scares me but he is hitting at home against a guy in McAllister he has homered 3 times off in 10 at bats and has a 2.115 OPS. I think he could make a solid filler play but only for cheap as he is a huge risk.
- I think many people have been looking Yan Gomes over when making their teams and using guys from Texas or other high powered offenses. The Indians have been solid lately, and aside from the last game, Gomes has been a big part of that. He has a .893 OPS against left handers and I really do not trust Albers to throw another quality start this season. I am big on Cleveland tonight and I think they get to Albers early.
- Norichika Aoki has really been hitting the ball well for the Brew Crew lately, posting a nice OPS in the last 7 days. He has been consistent and has doubles in his last 4 games. Even though Gee is solid, I think Aoki can get to him tonight because when Gee is bad, he is bad and he is pretty bad against lefties.
- The shortstop pool tonight is really horrible, and the only one I really like is Asdrubal Cabrera. He is a bit worse against left handers but he is hitting in a lineup which I think will come through against a guy Vegas hates in Albers. It’s either 5 ER or 0 ER for Albers, and the Indians desperately need to keep winning.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.914 | 0.286 | 0.339 | 0.97 | Cobb – R | 2.9 | 0.237 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.161 | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.91 | Hale – R | 0 | 0.259 |
| AJ Pierzynski | 0.328 | 0.285 | 0.312 | 1.02 | Williams – R | 4.55 | 0.269 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 1 | 0.307 | 0.318 | 0.92 | Guthrie – R | 4.09 | 0.265 |
| Billy Butler | 0.393 | 0.325 | 0.343 | 0.92 | Rienzo – R | 5.04 | 0.293 |
| Gregor Blanco | 0.222 | 0.325 | 0.301 | 0.99 | Volquez – R | 5.77 | 0.268 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.369 | 0.272 | 0.304 | 0.99 | Gonzalez – R | 3.94 | 0.26 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.539 | 0.262 | 0.323 | 0.99 | Buehrle – L | 4.09 | 0.256 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.327 | 0.363 | 0.306 | 1.03 | Hale – R | 0 | 0.308 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.742 | 0.318 | 0.346 | 0.99 | Lincecum – R | 4.44 | 0.302 |
- Alfonso Soriano has to face Alex Cobb tonight who has been ridiculously dominant in his last 2 outings. Soriano has not much left to play for as the Yankees are out of the playoffs and also stinks at hitting right handed pitching. Cobb is not someone you want to mess with right now and this could go poorly for Yankees hitters.
- An impressive first start by Hale looks to get even better tonight when he faces the inept Phillies. Guys such as Carlos Ruiz appear to have given up as Ruiz has 1 hit in his last 18 at bats. Ruiz cannot hit right handers and even if Hale only goes 5 or 6 innings, the Braves can match the bullpen up to take Ruiz down.
- I am worried about AJ Pierzynski’s production right now as he is a bit banged up but the Rangers are still sticking him out there because they need the offense. Tonight does not look like a good night as he has been terrible recently and is only 1 for 15 off of Williams in his career. If I am targeting Rangers, I may look elsewhere.
- One thing that interests me about next year is determining if last year’s splits for Dayan Viciedo are a mirage as he really killed lefties last year but is about equal this year. I do not like the White Sox against Guthrie even though Kansas City was just eliminated from postseason consideration as none of the White Sox have ever had success against him.
- This game to me looks like an avoid all around because I do not want to touch any of the Royals bats after they were eliminated not knowing their mental status. Billy Butler especially scares me as he has been extra brutal in the last week only managing a .393 OPS, and I do not think that will get any better.
- Normally I hate Edinson Volquez but it is hard to hate anyone against this miserable Giants offense. Volquez has been absolutely terrible this year, no doubt, but he does own solid numbers against the Giants especially against Blanco who he has struck out 9 times in 18 at bats and only allowed 5 singles.
- While I like a few Blue Jays minor leaguers tonight, I am going to stay away from Lawrie, who has been horrible lately. In fact, he is hitless in his last 4 appearances and even though I am not too high on Miguel Gonzalez, I think he can hold Lawrie down tonight.
- JJ Hardy gets to play against Mark Buehrle tonight, and in their previous matchups, it has not gone so well for the batter. Hardy is 3 for 20 off Buehrle and has really been pretty bad in the last week or so. I am not as high on this game as some and I may play the under.
- Cesar Hernandez is leading off for the Phillies, and judging by his major league stats so far he does not bring much upside. He has a .363 BABIP which will come down, which will drag his OPS down as well. His OPS is better against righties at .753 but he has no stolen bases and no real power. He is also struggling lately and has 3 hits in the last 24 at bats. Against Hale, this seems like a poor spot considering the strength of Hale’s previous start.
- Adrian Gonzalez has been getting some rest lately so I am not sure if he will be in the lineup against Timmy tonight. If he is, I would consider passing him over for another 1st baseman as they have a pretty big history with one another, with Gonzalez going 10 for 50 with 16 strikeouts ad a .459 OPS against the freak. Tim is not who he used to be but I still think these numbers tell us something.