Today's Hitter Breakdown: Thursday, July 3rd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-07-03 11:33:32

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Would like to apologize for the lack of the Hitter Breakdown articles, but I was also on my bachelor party which made it difficult to make each night. On the day back we get a game with 2 runs higher than anything else in the Rockies/Dodgers game so I will try to stay away from that game even though all of those players will be so highly owned.

		Jason Castro
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.195	0.637	3.24%	0.289
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.211	0.707	5.26%	0.313
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Shoemaker – RIGHT			0.277	0.793	6.56%	0.351
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	0.987	$2,600	$3,897	$6,700	$3,600	$47,000	$4,300	$6,700

Jason Castro

I really like Castro tonight even though everyone else might not. Castro’s wRC+ is much lower this year than his career numbers and I believe that he’s much better than he’s shown this year. He still has great numbers against right handed pitching and while Shoemaker has been solid for a while he’s been poor against lefties especially in the last few games.

		Justin Morneau
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.327	0.919	4.88%	0.396
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.346	0.87	3.85%	0.383
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Greinke – RIGHT			0.254	0.696	7.12%	0.313
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.042	$3,800	$7,280	$10,300	$4,500	$93,800	$7,400	$10,300

Justin Morneau

I’m really liking Morneau tonight in Coors Field. The best hitting park by far and a guy who is hitting a .915 OPS against right handed pitching makes me still love him tonight even though he’s facing Greinke. The Rockies aren’t too big of dogs tonight in the Vegas odds which is making me believe that Colorado will put up some runs on Greinke and Morneau should be part of those.

		Howie Kendrick
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.277	0.744	2.13%	0.328
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.316	0.718	0.00%	0.321
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.256	0.710	6.12%	0.311
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	1.066	$3,300	$6,737	$7,700	$4,200	$74,300	$6,700	$7,700

Howie Kendrick

I’m looking at this game and I’m seeing a terrible game for Brett Oberholtzer. He’s really the #6 guy in the Astros lineup and has been awful in GB/FB ratio which means that while he’s been solid lately he’s playing with fire. This game has the 2nd highest over/under of the night right now and I really like the right handed hitters in the Angels lineup to take out Oberholtzer today.

		Ryan Wheeler
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.262	0.765	4.76%	0.329
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.333	0.889	5.56%	0.387
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Greinke – RIGHT			0.254	0.696	7.12%	0.313
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.042	$2,200	$5,092	$5,550	$3,400	$32,700	$3,400	$5,550

Ryan Wheeler

I really like Wheeler and while it may not look like a good spot for him, I think his cheap price and his proficiency against right handed pitching should carry him over in this game. I doubt that he will be highly owned due to Greinke but if he gets a hold of one, he could win you a GPP in Coors. Note- With
Nolan Arenado returning from the Dl on Thursday, Wheeler may not be in the lineup. Be sure to check before deploying him.

		Didi Gregorius
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.282	0.921	5.13%	0.397
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.214	0.741	0.00%	0.299
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Worley – RIGHT			0.358	0.965	7.52%	0.428
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.907	0.897	$3,000	$5,756	$6,850	$3,900	$64,300	$5,600	$6,850

Didi Gregorius

I really like Didi as a player and I really think he has a good chance at a sneaky big game tonight. He has a really solid .921 OPS this year against right handed pitching with both of his homers coming off righties and faces Vance Worley in PNC Park. Even if Gregorius is at the bottom of the lineup I think he should still be a solid value play.

		Yasiel Puig
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.303	0.844	3.03%	0.373
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.222	0.633	0.00%	0.285
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.314	0.949	11.78%	0.418
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,800	$8,954	$10,950	$5,300	$80,500	$8,700	$10,950

Yasiel Puig

Not really much to say here for Puig for a guy who has been one of the top outfielders of this year against one of the worst pitchers against right handed pitching in Coors. Use Puig religiously across all of your lineups and I wouldn’t be sad despite his price. He’s definitely worth it tonight in Coors and he’s my pick to homer tonight.

		Matt Kemp
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.214	0.592	0.00%	0.262
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.231	0.644	3.85%	0.284
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.314	0.949	11.78%	0.418
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,200	$6,373	$8,750	$4,600	$57,800	$7,500	$8,750

Matt Kemp

Morales is terrible against right handed pitching. He has a .939 OPS and has given up 13 HR in 213 AB against them. Matt Kemp has a history of crushing left handed pitching and although he’s been garbage against them this year I’ll trust his career numbers and believe he’s going to turn it around.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.103	0.487	5.13%	0.224
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.308	1.037	7.69%	0.432
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bedard – LEFT			0.245	0.720	10.98%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,800	$6,600	$8,650	$4,200	$86,100	$8,800	$8,650

J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez has been absolutely raking this year which is allowing the Tigers to not rush Dirks back from injury. J.D. Martinez has crushed right handers this year but it’s strange because in his career he’s been better against lefties who is who he’s facing tonight in Bedard who has been good in a couple of starts this year but really not good lately.

		Mike Trout
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.306	1.079	8.24%	0.463
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.429	1.33	9.52%	0.561
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.256	0.710	6.12%	0.311
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	1.066	$5,800	$9,685	$13,000	$6,000	$113,200	$11,100	$13,000

Mike Trout

What else is there to say about Trout right now? He struggled (?!?) a bit out of the gate but he’s been raking lately and his price is at the top of the industry. He’s in the 2nd highest over/under game of the night tonight, will be hitting in a top 2 spot in the order, will be hitting against a terrible pitcher and is in a game where Vegas loves the home team. He’s one of the safest batters you can pick tonight.

		Ian Kinsler
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.310	0.759	1.15%	0.334
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.519	1.419	7.41%	0.606
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bedard – LEFT			0.245	0.720	10.98%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$4,300	$9,082	$11,350	$5,000	$107,500	$9,500	$11,350

Ian Kinsler

As a huge Tigers fan, I have loved having Kinsler hit at the top of the lineup with speed and power. He’s crushed left handers in his career with a .894 OPS in the last 3 years but this year really hasn’t done much against them. I really think he’s going to get it together in this season and in a game against Bedard who has been sad lately makes me really like him more.