Total Domination: Week 4
A weekly look at games that could exceed or fall short of betting market expectations. Bettors can leverage recommendations at the sportsbook, while DFS players can use the specific player recommendations mentioned to their advantage. Steve Repsold deep dives each recommendation and advises us the level of bet confidence expressed in units (example: 2u = 2 units).
Week 4
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5) Over 48 2.5u
You could have taken all my money if you had bet me during the preseason that the Dolphins would be 3-0 and the Patriots 1-2, entering their Week 4 matchup in Foxborough. It’s hard to decide which of those is the more improbable and the combination is unthinkable. On the Patriots’ side, a lot of the blame has to rest with the defense. They’ve given up no fewer than 20 points and that was Week 1 against the Texans without Will Fuller, a team that has not looked good against the Titans or the Giants, which ended a one-score game. It was much closer than it should have been.
Then they went on to lose to the Jaguars (without Leonard Fournette) and Lions by multiple scores. The offense sputtered and deserves equal parts of the blame against the Lions (perhaps due to Lions HC Matt Patricia’s familiarity with the Patriots), but Brady and Co. still put up 20 points and 300 total yards against an elite Jaguars defense. But the defense allowed 480 yards. They followed it up by allowing 414 yards to the Lions.
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