Total Domination: Week 5

by Steve Repsold (SteveRepsold) Last Updated 2018-10-11 18:13:59 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

A weekly look at games that could exceed or fall short of betting market expectations. Bettors can leverage recommendations at the sportsbook, while DFS players can use the specific player recommendations mentioned to their advantage. Steve Repsold deep dives each recommendation and advises us the level of bet confidence expressed in units (example: 2u = 2 units).

Week 5

It didn’t take Vegas/the betting public long to adjust to the higher-scoring NFL of 2018. In Week 1, there were zero games with a closing total of 50+. ZERO. It’s a brave new world here in Week 5, where six of sixteen games have a total of 50 or more, with two more above 48. Plus, of course, the college football-like 58 total in the Falcons at Steelers game. Week 1 had only two games above 48.

In Week 3, I wrote about the NFL as a whole shifting towards higher scoring games and how we could use that to our advantage by focusing on overs. Well, the adjustment came much faster than I’d hoped. But given the degree of scoring increase in the first few weeks, how could it not? That’s why I’m not backing down from overs – points are going to be scored – but I’m not staying away from unders, either. The next thing to be on the lookout for is the potential overreactions, where the increased total is driven by recency bias and overinflated.

However, I’m not seeing any of those standing out to me this week. Normally, I’d describe a 58 total in an NFL game as “insane,” but it’s perfectly in line, not only with what we’ve seen, but also what you’d expect to see from the broken shambles of Atlanta’s injured defense and the continued aging and slowing of Pittsburgh’s defense, which hasn’t been the same without Ryan Shazier. Combine that with two elite offenses and I’m in no hurry to bet the under. But it’s good to be vigilant.