2023 Tour Championship Golf Betting Tips: East Lake Golf Club Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:55:11

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Tour Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on PGA DFS Pick’em entries this week!

After Viktor Hovland lit the golf world on fire with the round of the year on Sunday, the PGA Tour settles in for its finale at East Lake Golf Club. The final thirty players will compete with a staggered starting leaderboard for an opportunity to lift the FedEx Cup and capture $18,000,000. After his victory, Viktor Hovland moved up to second place in the FedEx standings. While he opens his tournament at eight under par, Scottie Scheffler starts the week in first place and will begin the event at -10. The four-year history of this format has produced runaway wins for points leaders and come-from-behind victories from Rory McIlroy. Let’s go over the field, odds, and course before highlighting a few golfers to keep our eyes on this weekend.

2023 Tour Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – August 22nd – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers’ starting strokes and betting odds with and without strokes.

Here is a breakdown of the Tour Championship since the new format was introduced in 2019:

• 2022 – Tour Champion – Rory McIlroy (-21/-4), Lowest Gross – Rory McIlroy (-17)

Rory outlasted Scottie Scheffler last season to claim what felt like a massive victory for the PGA Tour. Always a crowd favorite, the galleries were on fire as Rory claimed his second tour championship since the new format was instituted. Starting at -, Rory put together a huge weekend to catch up to the other leaders.

• 2021 – Tour Champion – Patrick Cantlay (-21/-10), Lowest Gross – Kevin Na/Jon Rahm (-14)

Patrick Cantlay rode exceptional momentum after a win at the BMW Championship to claim the Tour Championship in 2021. Rahm valiantly chased Cantlay with Kevin Na but was not able to do enough to overtake the leader when the tournament began.

• 2020 – Tour Champion – Dustin Johnson (-21/-10), Lowest Gross – Xander Schauffele (-15)

Xander Schauffele’s 265 was not enough to catch Dustin Johnson, who put together his best season on tour in 2020. The now-LIV superstar held his opening lead to win the big purse.

• 2019 – Tour Champion – Rory McIlroy (-18/-5), Lowest Gross – Rory McIlroy (-13)

As noted above, Rory has a penchant for playing catch-up at this event — a contributing reason why he is considered one of the favorites to win as he starts at -7. To overcome such a deficit Rory was the lowest gross scorer to catch Justin Thomas in the first run at this playoff format.

2023 Tour Championship Betting Preview

• Course: East Lake Golf Club
• Date: August 24 – 27
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,346
• Greens: Bermuda

East Lake Golf Club is a mainstay on the PGA Tour as it is the final test separating golfers from a massive $18,000,000 payday. Every golfer is guaranteed a half-million dollars for their attendance as well as a two-year exemption. The no-cut format has been debated repeatedly since the strokes format was introduced in 2019. The PGA Tour did a great job to balance golfers peaking at the right time while also rewarding play throughout the golf season.

Jon Rahm is still rewarded for his exceptional season despite his recent form as he begins the event at -6. Players like Lucas Glover are given a reward for getting hot at the right time. This is the playoffs after all! While the format makes it almost impossible for golfers at -1 or E to factor in on Sunday, I suppose nothing is impossible. Rory McIlroy showed that a come-from-behind victory is a possibility.

The course proves to be a true test. With the narrowest fairways on Tour, driving accuracy will play an important role. As a traditional Par-70, the course is pretty standard in length relative to other courses. Half of the holes on course average score above par while the other half average scores below par.

We know the Par 5’s will help players play catchup but it will be Par 4’s above 450 yards that make the biggest difference in the week’s outcome. Six holes on the course are north of 450 yards meaning we will also keep our eye on proximity above 200 yards. As ever, T2G form as of late and SG: Approach is always important but the staggered form means modeling this event will be a challenge.

Given that Scottie Scheffler has put together one of the best tee-to-green seasons in the history of the PGA Tour, a two-stroke advantage feels like a very large mountain to climb for second place. Scottie continues to struggle with the putter — missing several putts last Sunday as Viktor Hovland had a back-nine for the ages. Scheffler was -4 with several missed opportunities. Starting with a handicap only mitigates those putting woes as he aims to fend players off.

Xander Schauffele might be the horse for this course, never finishing below a T7 at this event. Schauffele won the tournament in 2017 and nearly caught Dustin Johnson in 2020 with an incredible 265. Schauffele brings pretty short odds to win the event without strokes and carries a much less appealing price to win the tournament outright relative to his peers starting at -3.

Rory McIlroy leads the field in total strokes gained over his last 24 rounds and has a stellar track record at East Lake. Like Scottie, his putting continues to let him down in prime spots as he sits in 11th in SG: Putting over that time frame. Will Rory be able to hole enough putts to catch Scottie this weekend and lift a third FedEx Cup?

We will cull out players in fine form over their last 24 rounds but focusing on any particular statistics might be fool’s errand given the format. Despite how a player models over any number of recent rounds, the staggered start makes it very challenging for even the hottest golfer to catch some of the leaders. Let’s take a peek at a few golfers to watch this weekend in either market.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Xander Schauffele (-3)

Xander Schauffele would set a new record for the biggest deficit to overcome to win the Tour Championship if he were to overcome seven starting strokes. That said, Xander might be the best suited at this venue to do so.

Schauffele sits 3rd in putting and 6th in Approach. He finished strongly at the BMW Championship to vault to this position on the leaderboard ahead of East Lake. With Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy struggling to make putts, perhaps the door is open for someone in this group to put together a low round on Thursday or Friday to join the group. Sports betting sites clearly baked Xander’s history into his odds in both columns. Perhaps a wager on his outright without strokes is the play here.

Lucas Glover (-5)

In what appears to be a strange development, BetMGM prices Lucas Glover at 40-1 to win the tournament with and without strokes. I cannot figure out which of the two bets I would like more but my gut is telling me without strokes would be the play.

Glover came back to Earth at the BMW Championship. That said, the ridiculous form had to slow a bit after a magical two-week ride. Glover’s putter let him down last week, but not so badly that it cost him the tournament. He gained strokes from T2G and approach again — continuing the form that has him sitting in third place in SG: T2G coming into the week.

With a captain’s selection likely riding on Glover’s performance at East Lake, Glover should be very motivated to put together a phenomenal performance at a course that will reward his incredible ball-striking. Catching Scottie and Rory seems unlikely, but maybe Glover can keep himself in the top five with a great performance relative to par.

Wyndham Clark (-4)

I am not sure why but I can’t seem to get enough of Wyndham Clark at the end of this PGA Tour season. Leading the field in both short game and putting, Clark has the dynamic skillset to put together very low scores.

At -4, is he catching the leaders? Probably not. However, at least we are getting a number that rewards us for our risk. At 50/1, Clark’s payoff dwarfs that of Max Homa (also -4). While Homa had a far better week at the BMW Championship, Clark’s form over the last couple of months of the season put Max Homa to shame. With all of his bucket list items already checked off, the only checkbox left to mark is a Tour Championship victory.

I will have to talk myself into this one and will likely aggressively shop all over for a better price. That said, this event is pretty tough to bet if you don’t want to lay out a huge bounty on one of the leaders.

_Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.

Image Credit: Getty Images